Climate projections for sediment budgeting and river · PDF filePIANC AGA 2011 - Berlin -...

PIANC AGA 2011 - Berlin - 18.05.2011 page 1

Climate projections for sediment budgeting and

river morphology of German waterways

Dr.-Ing. Markus PromnyFederal Institute of Hydrology, Koblenz, Germany


BACKGROUNDRequirements for stable navigation conditions

sufficient discharge balanced sediment budget

navigation conditions

influence

• maximum flood levels• duration and frequency of floods• duration of low-flow periods

influence

• deposition• erosion• bed-forms

key factor


APPROACHsediment budget analysis

� present sediment budget

Iffez

heim

bed

-load

nou

rishm

ent

Rhine: BfG-report 1702 (2010)

initiated by Waterways and Shipping Directorate SW

• sediment transport measurements • bed-level surveys• bed-load tracer experiments

Tools:

BfG-type bed-load sampler


APPROACHclimate projections

global emission scenarios

global climate models

global scale

Europe

regional scale

regional climate models

Elbe

catchment scale

hydrological models

hydro- and morphodynamic models

� projection of sediment budget until 2100Project KLIWAS ( www.kliwas.de )

initiated and financed by the Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development (BMVBS)

source: Wikimedia Commons


APPROACHmorphodynamic models (inland)

Rhine

Elbe

Rhine:

Iffezheim-Lobith

540 km

1014 cross sections

Elbe:

Ústí-Geesthacht

620 km + Saale

3830 cross sections


APPROACHmorphodynamic models

calibration:bed level change 1993-2004

validation:bed level change 1996-2006transport rates

example cross section

river Rhine

1-D Model SOBEK

(deltares.nl)

substrate:9 layers11 grain size fractions


STATE OF THE PROJECT

• first sets of projections have passed the model chain • morphodynamic calculations running until 2050

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550Rhine-km

mea

n be

d-le

vel c

hang

e [m

] (3

km

-ave

rage

)

reference run

climate projection #1 2007-2050



maintenance scenario: dredging and supply as mean amount of 1993-2006 [m³/a km]

Example: bed-level change of the Rhine between 2007 and 2050

preliminary result


STATE OF THE PROJECT

Example: water depth change along the Rhine between 2010 and 2050

-0,4

-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

Ma

xau

Spe

yer

Ne

cka

rco

nflu

en

ce

Wor

ms

Ma

inco

nflu

en

ce

Mai

nz

up

stre

am

of

Gie

ssb

ifurc

atio

n

km 362 km 401 km 428 km 443 km 496 km 498 km 512

cro

ss-s

ect

ion

ave

rag

ed

w

ater

de

pth

chan

ge

201

0-2

05

0 .

[m p

er

dec

ade

]

reference run (hydraulic conditions of 1992-2004)

max value of climate projections

min value of climate projections

mean value of climate projections

preliminary result


NEXT STEPSimprovement of dredging & dumping simulation

� dredging & dumping algorithm

bed level at dredging site Rhine-km 366m

ean

bed

leve

l [m

]

� automatic dredging when bed level exceeds predefined threshold� dumping of dredged material at predefined site

preliminary result


-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550

Rhine-km

mea

n b

ed

leve

l ch

ang

e [m

] (3

km

-ave

rag

e)

constant dredging and dumping

dredging-dumping algorithm

NEXT STEPSimprovement of dredging & dumping simulation

bed level change 2007-2050

� algorithm leads to more realistic behaviour

preliminary result


NEXT STEPS

include updated climate projections (IPCC)

extending simulation time to 2100


Conclusions

� chain of models is being set up

� aim: assess potential impacts on German waterways resulting from climate change

� sediment budget is the key factor in the assessment of impacts on navigation

(as well as on ecology and water quality)

� at this project-stage model chain is operable

� robust results can be expected by the end of the project in 2013

� analysis will help to identify possible challenges and adaptation measures


Thank you very much for your attention.

Dr.-Ing. Markus PromnyFederal Institute of Hydrology, Koblenz, [email protected]

acknowledgementsBfG: Dr. R. M. Frings, N. Gehres, Dr. S. Vollmer, Dr. E. NilsonDeltares: Dr. C. J. Sloff, J. Crebas

KLIWAS research programme –initiated and financed by the Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development (BMVBS)

split barge downstream Iffezheim

Climate projections for sediment budgeting and river · PDF filePIANC AGA 2011 - Berlin -...

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