Climate policy Engagement in Brazil: how delayed action might lead to CCS as the last resort to...
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Transcript of Climate policy Engagement in Brazil: how delayed action might lead to CCS as the last resort to...
Larissa P. N. de OliveiraVITO/EnergyVille
“Climate policy Engagement in Brazil: how delayed action might lead to CCS as the last
resort to mitigation”
ETSAP Workshop – 27/11/2016
Madrid
Contents
1.Research Background
2.Introduction
3.Methodology
4.Results
5.Conclusions
6.Future Work
Background
• Original Work
– Oliveira, L. P. N. “Temporal Issues in Mitigation Alternatives for the Energy Sector in Brazil”, D.Sc. Thesis. Energy Planning Program, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (2016).
• “Sandwich” period (1 year) at Imperial College London – Overall subject: Integrated modelling for evaluating low carbon policies in
Brazil
• Other publications:– OLIVEIRA, L. P. N.; ROCHEDO, P. R. R., PORTUGAL-PEREIRA, J.; HOFFMANN, B. S.; ARAGÃO, R.; MILANI, R.; LUCENA, A.
F. P.; SZKLO, A. S.; SCHAEFFER, R. Critical technologies for sustainable energy development in Brazil: technological foresight based on scenario modelling. Journal of Cleaner Production 130 PP. 12-24.
– LUCENA, A. F. P.; CLARCKE, L.; SCHAEFFER, R.; SZKLO, A. S.; ROCHEDO, P. R. R.; NOGUEIRA, L. P. P.; DAENZER, K.; GURGEL, A.; KITOUS, A., KOBER, T. Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy. Energy Economics 56 PP. 564-574, 2016.
– NOGUEIRA, L. P. P.; LUCENA, A. F. P.; RATHMANN, R.; ROCHEDO, P. R. R.; SZKLO, A. S.; SCHAEFFER, R. Will thermal power plants with CCS play a role in Brazil's future electric power generation? International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 24 PP. 115-123, 2014.
– NOGUEIRA, L. P. P.; HAWKES, A. D.; NAPP, T. Can Brazil fulfil long-term reduction targets? An Evaluation of Consequences of Delayed Action on its energy sector. 9th Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environmental Systems (SDEWES). Venice-Istanbul, September, 2014.
Introduction
• Motivation– Different approaches regarding time preference lead to different
outcomes in scenario-making;
– Brazil has assumed a strong position towards climate change, but faces an economic and political turmoil;
– Bring the debate of delayed action to country level;
– Bring insight on the effect of delayed action in Brazil (considering its particularities).
• Research question: – Could Brazil become locked on fossil fuel technologies if it does not anticipate climate action?
Integrated Modeling
Time preference Climate Change
Brazil’s Context
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Brazil World
Energy Supply - 2012
Non-renewable Renewable
Brazil’s Context
Hydraulic11%
Firewood and charcoal
8%Sugarcane products
16%
Other renewables4%
Petroleum and oil products
39%
Natural gas14%
Coal and coke6%
Uranium1%
Other non-renewables
1%
Brazil’s Context
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Gg
CO
2
CO2 Emissions
Energy Industrial Processes Land Use Change and Forestry Waste Treatment
Brazil’s in a crossroads…
• On the demand side:
– Increasing population
– Economic growth in recent years
– Increasing demand in the long-term • Despite current economical crisis
• On the supply side:
– Still highly renewable (due to hydro and ethanol)
– Hydro reminiscent potential in Amazon region
– Pre-salt discoveries increased natural gas consumption
– Low cost coal-fired electricity generation
Brazil’s Context
• Low Carbon PoliciesBefore... PNMC: 36.1% to 38.9%
reduction in 2020 compared to a BAU scenario (voluntary).
Today: INDC: absolute targets of
1.3 GtCO2e until 2025 and 1.2 GtCO2e until 2030 (37% and 43% reduction) in relation to 2005 levels.
Methodology
• Integrated Modeling Tool : TIMES
• TIMBRA– Intertemporal optimization – perfect foresight
• 5 energy levels (+2 dummies):– Resources: 4 types (non-renewables)
– Primary Energy: 8 types
– Secondary Energy: 18 types
– Final Energy: 20 types
– Useful Energy: supplies 22 demand types
– Around 300 technology types
– Base year: 2010
– Time Horizon: 2010-2050, 5-year periods.
Methodology• Simplified structure
Methodology• Simplified structure: resources
Methodology• Simplified Structure: Liquid fuels and H2
Methodology• Simplified structure: Electricity Generation
Methodology• Simplified structure: Transport Sector
Methodology• Simplified structure: other demand sectors
Industry:MiningCementCeramicsPulp and PaperPig-iron and SteelNickel & IronIron-alloysChemicalFood and Bev.TextileOthers
Methodology• Simplified Structure
Methodology
• Scenarios:– Discount rates:
• Market discount rates per sector: 12%-15%
• Social discount rate: 3%
BASE_MKTS
LC_MKTS_PF
LC_MKTS_PFD
BASE_SOC
LC_SOC_PF
LC_SOC_PFD
– Low carbon policies:• Based on INDC for 2030 -
575,8 million tCO2
• Early (2030) vs. delayed action (2040) reflects level of international cooperation.
Main Results
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
BA
SE
_M
KT
S
LC_
MK
TS
_P
F
LC_
MK
TS
_P
FD
BA
SE
_M
KT
S
LC_
MK
TS
_P
F
LC_
MK
TS
_P
FD
BA
SE
_M
KT
S
LC_
MK
TS
_P
F
LC_
MK
TS
_P
FD
BA
SE
_M
KT
S
LC_
MK
TS
_P
F
LC_
MK
TS
_P
FD
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h
Electricity GenerationEthanol
H2 CCGT
MSW
Wave
Solar Hybrid
Solar
Wind
Biomass w/CCS
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Diesel
Fuel Oil
NG w/CCS
NG
Coal Co-firing
Coal w/CCS
Coal
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
BA
SE_
MK
TS
LC_M
KTS
_PF
LC_M
KTS
_PFD
BA
SE_
MK
TS
LC_M
KTS
_PF
LC_M
KTS
_PFD
BA
SE_
MK
TS
LC_M
KTS
_PF
LC_M
KTS
_PFD
BA
SE_
MK
TS
LC_M
KTS
_PF
LC_M
KTS
_PFD
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtC
O2
CO2 Emissions
CO2 Capture -H2
CO2 Capture -Bio
CO2 Capture -EE
Net Emissions
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
BA
SE_
SOC
LC_
SOC
_P
F
LC_
SOC
_P
FD
BA
SE_
SOC
LC_
SOC
_P
F
LC_
SOC
_P
FD
BA
SE_
SOC
LC_
SOC
_P
F
LC_
SOC
_P
FD
BA
SE_
SOC
LC_
SOC
_P
F
LC_
SOC
_P
FD
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TW
h
Electricity GenerationEthanol
H2 CCGT
MSW
Wave
Solar Hybrid
Solar
Wind
Biomass w/CCS
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Diesel
Fuel Oil
NG w/CCS
NG
Coal Co-firing
Coal w/CCS
Coal
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
BA
SE_
SOC
LC_S
OC
_PF
LC_S
OC
_PFD
BA
SE_
SOC
LC_S
OC
_PF
LC_S
OC
_PFD
BA
SE_
SOC
LC_S
OC
_PF
LC_S
OC
_PFD
BA
SE_
SOC
LC_S
OC
_PF
LC_S
OC
_PFD
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtC
O2
CO2 Emissions
CO2 Capture -H2
CO2 Capture -Bio
CO2 Capture -EE
Net Emissions
More fossil-based
More renewables
Market DR Social DR
Main Results
• Primary sources across scenarios:
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Coal
Natural Gas
Crude oil
Biomass
Biofuels
Nuclear
Hydro
Other Renewables
2030
BASE_SOC LC_SOC_PF LC_SOC_PFD
BASE_MKTS LC_MKTS_PF LC_MKTS_PFD
Main Results
• Primary sources across scenarios:
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Coal
Natural Gas
Crude oil
Biomass
Biofuels
Nuclear
Hydro
Other Renewables
2050
BASE_SOC LC_SOC_PF LC_SOC_PFD
BASE_MKTS LC_MKTS_PF LC_MKTS_PFD
Main Results
• Abated emissions through CCS
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
CaptureEE
CaptureBio
CaptureH2
BASE_SOC LC_SOC_PF LC_SOC_PFD
BASE_MKTS LC_MKTS_PF LC_MKTS_PFD
Main Results
• Normalized Global Cost vs. Normalized Emissions of Scenarios.
1.002
1.004
1.006
1.008
1.010
1.012
1.014
1.016
1.018
0.68 0.70 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78
No
rmal
ize
d T
ota
l Co
st
Normalized Emissions
LC_SOC_PFD
LC_SOC_PF
LC_MKTS_PFD
LC_MKTS_PF
delayed
early
early
delayed
Conclusions
• Energy budget of Brazil’s INDC seems to be quite stringent under high long-term economic growth premises;
• Different elements related to time preference influence the technology transition: among them the discount rate choice and the level of international cooperation;
• Still, under delayed action, Brazil’s energy system gets (more) locked in fossil technologies bioCCS potential, e.g., is underexplored.
• Perfect foresight results deviate from real market rationale of some specific sector (e.g., ethanol + EE).
• Important to be aware of discounting effects and model rationale when interpreting results (expl: early vs. delayed actions with different DRs).
Future work for TIMBRA
• Better depiction of demand side processes should relief the pressure for CCS and other advanced technologies;
• Better depiction of industry sector;
• Adjustments in short-term macroeconomic assumptions to reflect current economical crisis;
• Sensitivities related to discount rates;
• Allowing trade with other regions ‘cap-and-trade’ shouuldalso relief pressure on supply;
• Integration with Latin America (ongoing).
Thank you!
Larissa P. N. de [email protected]
Co-authors:Roberto Schaeffer, [email protected]
Alexandre Szklo, D.Sc. [email protected]
Adam D. Hawkes, [email protected]
This research was financed by CNPq and CAPES, funding agencies in Brazil.This research was partly financed by ‘Science Without Borders’ Program
(http://www.cienciasemfronteiras.gov.br/web/csf-eng/).