Climate Outlook and Review March 2016 No 107_FINAL

University of Southern Queensland | Document title 1

Climate Outlook and Review

Focus on sugar industry

requirements

Issued 1 March 2016 Roger C Stone

International Centre for

Applied Climate Sciences

(ICACS)

University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 2

Overview

Rainfall probability values of exceeding the long term median are now

mostly between about 50% to 60% but with some variability to lower values

in the northern inland and higher values in the southern and western inland and far north west (see attached map).

For sugar regions, the SOI ‘phase system’ output for the three months

March to May, 2016, suggests about 50% probability of exceeding median

rainfall in most districts (climatological normal).

For the longer term (eg April to June, 2016) the European ECMWF GCM forecast system suggests continuation of below normal rainfall probability values for the coming April to June 2016 period for our regions.

The current SOI phase is classified as ‘consistently negative’.

According to BoM‘s and NOAA’s forecasting system and USQ’s

analysis, the MJO is next due to affect our longitudes approximately

mid-March.

Average to above normal maximum and especially minimum temperature probability values are indicated for most sugar regions – as per figures 2/3

– but mostly below normal minimum temperatures are forecast – as per figure 3.

We are currently further progressing into the El Niño pattern.

The SOI phase for the end of February was classified as being

a ‘Consistently Negative phase’.

The SOI to the end of February was close to minus 19.1 (-19.1) putting this

recent phase within the ‘Consistently Negative category’.

The likelihood of the current El Niño pattern being replaced by a La Niña

pattern is not certain, based on latest ocean modelling data. It is also

suggested there is some risk we may drift back into another El Niño pattern.


Figure 1: Forecast rainfall probability values for Queensland - probability of

exceeding the respective long-term median values overall for the total period March

to May 2016. Regions shaded grey have around normal rainfall probability values

while areas shaded blue and dark blue have above normal probability values. Yellow

areas have low rainfall probability values. Note that these values are relative to

‘normal’ rainfall at this particular period of year.


Figure 2: Probability of maximum temperatures averaged over the three month

period March to May 2016 being above the long-term median for this time of the

year. Regions dark blue have well above normal maximum temperature probability

values.


Figure 3: Probability of minimum temperatures averaged over the three month

period March to May 2016 being above the long-term median for this time of the

year. Regions shaded dark blue and dark grey have well above normal probability

values.


Figure 4: Probability of radiation values, averaged over the three month period

March to May 2016 of being above the long-term median for this time of the year.

Regions shaded blue and dark grey have above normal probability values. (Regions

shaded yellow have below normal values).


Figure 5: Forecast rainfall probability values for Australia for the overall period March to

May 2016 – (after Stone, Hammer and Marcussen, 1996). Regions shaded yellow and light

grey have low probability values for this period relative to this time of the year. Regions

shaded dark grey and dark blue have above normal rainfall probability values.

Figure 6: Monthly SOI values since January 2010 – the most recent phase is ‘Consistently

Negative’. The most recent 30-day average value, to 29 February 2016, is minus -19.1

(-19.1). The SOI has been mostly negative for over 20 months now.


Longer-term forecasts:

The ECMWF and POAMA models provide useful assessments of longer-term rainfall

probability values for sugar regions (and other agricultural regions).

The ECMWF example suggests ‘average’ rainfall probability values for the coming

April to June 2016 period for our regions. However, ECMWF are using a different

ocean model to US CPC that is showing a revamp of the El Niño pattern.

The United States Climate Prediction Center and the Bureau of Meteorology

‘CAWCR’ Centre provide useful forecasts of sea-surface temperatures in important

regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean that have relevance for longer-term rainfall

and temperature patterns over Australian sugar regions.

An example of a recent/current forecast of sea-surface temperatures in the

Nino3.4 region is provided in Figure 8 below. This figure indicates well above

normal sea-surface temperatures likely to extend through much of the first half of

2016. However, the latest model outputs (from this highly regarded model)

suggest some rebound to a ‘weak El Nino’ by winter, 2016. Note that this is a

particularly volatile time of the year and forecasts can change rapidly from now

through to about May or June.

Figure 7. Updated ECMWF forecast rainfall probability values for eastern Australia – and the

region generally, for the April to June period, 2016. The white area along the NE Australia

coast indicates ‘average’ rainfall probabilities with the scale provided at the top of the diagram

(Courtesy ECMWF, Reading, UK).


Detailed rainfall probability values for selected locations.

Mossman March to May 2016

100% chance of exceeding 200mm

90% “ “ “ 410mm

80% 424mm

70% 452mm

60% 528mm

50% 632mm

40% 689mm

30% 820mm

20% 1069mm

10% 1171mm

Max ever record this pattern at Mossman 1318mm

Figure 8. Forecast of sea-surface temperature anomalies (how much they vary from normal)

for the central Equatorial Pacific Ocean for the period through to November, 2016. At this stage,

this later information with updated model nitialisations is now showing less chance of the

current El Nino pattern moving to a La Nina partern. Indeed, there is now some suggestion

of a ‘weak El Nino’ or otherwise a neutral ocean pattern from winter 2016 onwards.

Courtesy US Climate Prediction Center


Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Mossman for this period: 30%

Innisfail March to May 2016


90% 895mm

80% 952mm

70% 1075mm

60% 1128mm

50% 1138mm

40% 1507mm

30% 1708mm

20% 1995mm

10% 2236mm

Max ever record this pattern at Innisfail 2641mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Innisfail: 46%

Mareeba March to May 2016


90% 63mm

80% 81mm

70% 94mm

60% 113mm

50% 170mm

40% 182mm

30% 240mm

20% 296mm

10% 415mm

Max ever record this pattern at Mareeba 766mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Mareeba: 31%


Ingham March to May 2016


90% 313mm

80% 364mm

70% 406mm

60% 445mm

50% 517mm

40% 710mm

30% 828mm

20% 1036mm

10% 1289mm

Max ever record this pattern at Ingham 1650mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Ingham: 43%

Ayr (BSC) March to May 2016


90% 42mm

80% 86mm

70% 109mm

60% 139mm

50% 183mm

40% 197mm

30% 243mm

20% 259mm

10% 529mm

Max ever recorded this pattern 630mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 37%


Mackay Sugar March to May 2016


90% 248mm

80% 299mm

70% 305mm

60% 347mm

50% 414mm

40% 453mm

30% 547mm

20% 592mm

10% 873mm



Bundaberg Sugar March to May 2016


90% 130mm

80% 188mm

70% 274mm

60% 289mm

50% 353mm

40% 426mm

30% 460mm

20% 540mm

10% 634mm




Childers March to May 2016


90% 76mm

80% 100mm

70% 145mm

60% 187mm

50% 211mm

40% 256mm

30% 337mm

20% 442mm

10% 613mm

Max ever record this pattern at Childers 734mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Childers: 43%

Condong (NSW) Sugar Mill March to May 2016


90% 250mm

80% 349mm

70% 404mm

60% 440mm

50% 473mm

40% 498mm

30% 528mm

20% 590mm

10% 635mm




Recent forecast maps

As these forecasts are issued for a three-month validity on a rolling monthly

basis it has been decided to provide a continuous reference to these forecasts, as

below:

Seasonal climate forecast valid

1 March to 31 May 2016


1 February to 30 April 2016


1 December 2015 to 29 February 2016


1 January to 31 March 2016


Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) would next be due in approx. late March,

2016. Please refer to the BoM website (below) for updated information.

The information below also presents a ‘one-stop’ shop (as requested through

sugar industry workshops) for such information to be available.

For updated climate information

Click on the following links:

For the MJO

For weekly SSTs

For easterly (and westerly) wind anomalies across the Pacific

For sub-surface temperatures across the Pacific

For ECMWF forecast products

For ‘plume’ forecasts of SSTs in the central Pacific

For a complete history of the SOI

The Long Paddock

Additional information on ENSO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstweek_c.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ua850_c.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkteq_xz.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/seasonal/rain-public-charts-long-range-forecast?time=2016010100,3624,2016053100&area=East%20Asia&forecast_type_and_skill_measures=prob%20exceeding%20median

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Climate Outlook and Review March 2016 No 107_FINAL

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Transcript of Climate Outlook and Review March 2016 No 107_FINAL