Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka...
Transcript of Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka...
![Page 1: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate, niche evolution, and diversification of the “bird‐cage” evening primroses (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia)
Margaret Evans, Post-doc; YIBS, EEB, Yale UniversityStephen Smith, PhD student; EEB, Yale UniversityRachel Flynn, Undergraduate; Yale UniversityMichael Donoghue, Professor; Peabody Museum, EEB,
Yale University
![Page 2: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
plant diversity~300,000 species
![Page 3: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Explanations for plant diversity:Evolutionary vs.Climatic
![Page 4: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
High elevation or latitude,meadows, prairies
evening primroses (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia)
Low elevation, Sonoran Desert
Mid elevation, foothills
19 taxaWestern North America
![Page 5: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
two endangered species
Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensisEureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park
![Page 6: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Origins?
Stem date ~ 9 my
Evolutionary radiation during the Quaternary, Pleistocene
glacial-interglacial climatic fluctuations, migration, vicariance
Crown date ~ 0 my
…How old is this diversity?
![Page 7: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Qualitatively,Occupy a diversity of habitats/climates (deserts to alpine meadows)Radiated in the last ~1 million years
Approach:Combine niche models
phylogenetic information time scale
Quantify and visualize niche evolution
To understand speciation/diversification in relation to climate
Origins?How has the evolution of this group been influenced by climate?
![Page 8: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Step 1:Characterize extant species’ climatic tolerances
locality data from herbarium specimen
Quantify and visualize niche evolution
![Page 9: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Georeferenced locality data
+
Environmental layers
herbarium specimens
19 Bioclim variables (temperature, precipitation)
Predicted species distribution
algorithm
Where the species is
What the environment is like there
Where you should find the species on the landscape
Species Distribution Modeling
Maxent
![Page 10: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Maxent output
Probability Distribution -predicted suitability of the landscape
cumulative probability of occurrence
![Page 11: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Probability Distribution -predicted suitability of the landscape
Characterize extant species’ climatic tolerances
predicted occupancy of a climatic niche dimension
sum probabilities according to the
climate data
![Page 12: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
niche occupancy profiles
Characterize extant species’climatic tolerances
![Page 13: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Step 2:Phylogenetic relationships?
Step 1:Characterize extant species’ climatic tolerances
6 gene regions(one nuclear, five cp)~6500 bpBayesian analysis
Phylogeny (topology) Dating (time scale)
![Page 14: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Step 2: Phylogenetic relationshipsStep 1: Characterize extant species’ climatic tolerances
Step 3: Reconstruct evolution of climatic tolerances
Brownian motion model of evolution•weighted mean of daughters•(weights inversely proportional to the branch lengths)
3 2 9 5 2
3
22
11
4 46
2.5
75.9
5.3
![Page 15: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Step 2: Phylogenetic relationshipsStep 1: Characterize extant species’ climatic tolerances
Step 3: Reconstruct evolution of climatic tolerances
Brownian motion model of evolution•weighted mean of daughters•(weights inversely proportional to the branch lengths)
Two issues:Intraspecific variabilityPhylogenetic uncertainty
samples from climate profiles
samples from posterior distribution of trees
3 2 9 5 2
3
22
11
4 46
2.5
75.9
5.3
![Page 16: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
reconstruct the evolution of ecological niches
ecological radiation
![Page 17: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
evolution of ecological niches
ecological radiation
summer rain vs. summer drought
![Page 18: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
evolution of ecological niches
ecological radiation
summer rain vs. summer drought
freezing temperatures
![Page 19: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Niches have evolved quite a bit: summer rain vs. summer droughtfreezing temperatures
Climatic heterogeneity of WNA has been template for niche evolutionThis niche evolution and diversification occurred in last 1 my
spatio‐temporal climatic heterogeneity, and adaptation to it, probably played a role in generating diversity
Evans, Smith, Flynn, and Donoghue. in revision.
The American Naturalist.
![Page 20: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
conceptual models for speciation in response to climate change
![Page 21: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
conceptual models for speciation in response to climate change
![Page 22: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Biodiversity “pump” hypothesis
![Page 23: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Migration of an ancestor similar to O. californica ssp. avita or O. neomexicana
Leaving behind O. arizonicaO. californica ssp. eurekensisO. californica ssp. californica
![Page 24: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Other hotspots of plant diversity explained by spatio-climatic heterogeneity??
![Page 25: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Explanations for plant diversity:Evolution andClimate
![Page 26: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
We can use niche modeling and phylogenetic information to estimate or “reconstruct” evolution of climatic tolerances (niche evolution).
Infer: what were the climatic tolerances of ancestors?
Make inference on the role of climate in diversification, speciation.
Summary
![Page 27: Climate, niche evolution, and diversification · Oenothera californica ssp. eurekensis Eureka Dunes, Death Valley National Park. Origins? Stem date ~ 9 my Evolutionary radiation during](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050511/5f9c42789a4aa035c00a79f0/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Might evolution in response to climate change mitigate predictions about biodiversity loss?
slope=rate
Evans, Smith, Sytsma and Donoghue. in prep.
How fast must evolution be, and how does that compare to past rates of evolution?