ClimatemodelingforIAM:TheIGSM

ErwanMonieretal.

Massachuse=sIns>tuteofTechnology Oct11,2016

JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

THEIGSM

Trace gas fluxes (CO2, CH4, N2O) and policy constraints

CO2, CH4, CO, N2O, NOx, SOx, NH3, CFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, VOCs, BC, etc.

Hydrology/ water resources

Agriculture, forestry, bio-energy, ecosystem productivity

Human health effects

Implementation of feedbacks is under development

Exchanges utilized in targeted studies

Exchanges represented in standard runs of the system

Earth System

Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA)National and/or Regional Economic Development,

Emissions & Land Use

Human System

Land use change

Atmosphere2-Dimensional Dynamical,

Physical & Chemical Processes

Ocean2- or 3-Dimensional

Dynamical, Biological, Chemical & Ice Processes

Urban AirshedAir Pollution Processes

LandWater & Energy Budgets (CLM)

Biogeochemical Processes (TEM & NEM)

Coupled Ocean, Atmosphere, and Land

Sea level change

Climate/ energy demand

Solar forcing

Volcanic forcing

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

EconomicProjec>on&PolicyAnalysis(EPPA):

MITEarthSystemModel(MESM):

•  EarthSystemModelofIntermediateComplexity(EMIC)

•  Land,atmosphereandocean•  Fullcarboncycle•  Atmosphericchemistry

•  Recursivedynamiccomputablegeneralequilibrium(CGE)model

•  Worldeconomy•  Mul>-regions(18)•  Mul>-sectors•  Mul>-resources

THEMESM

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

OCEANWEST EAST

DEPTH

ATMOSPHERE

SOUTH

NORTH

HEIGHT

LAND

PROBABLISTICPROJECTIONS

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

§  Computa>onalefficiencyo  Acentury-longruntakes12hourson1cpuo  Caneasilyrun1000sofsimula>ons

§  Flexibilitytochangekeyclimateparameterso  climatesensi>vityo  strengthofaerosolforcingo  oceanheatuptakerateo  strengthofcarboncycle

Ø  PDFsofclimateparametersØ  Probabilis>cprojec>onsofclimatevariables

UNCERTAINTYINCLIMATEPARAMETERSOPTIMAL FINGERPRINT DIAGNOSTICS BASED

ON 20th CENTURY CLIMATE RECORD

LATIN HYPERCUBE SAMPLING OF PDFs

OF CLIMATE PARAMETERS

Probability density functions (PDFs) of climate parameters

CS (°

C)

Fae (W/m²)-1.50

2

4

6

8

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5

1000s of IGSM runs sampling climate parameters

CS (°

C)

Fae (W/m²)-1.50

2

4

6

8

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5

Distribution of future changes in global mean temperature

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0 2 4 6 8 10 12TEMPERATURE (°C)

10

02468Kv(sqrt(cm/s2))

02468Kv(sqrt(cm/s2))

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

REGIONALCLIMATEMODELING

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

HOWDOWEMODELCLIMATECHANGEREGIONALLY?

Climateemulator(pa=ernscaling)

Emulateregionalclimatechangebehaviorofdifferentclimate

models

Linkageto3Datmosphericmodel

Physicalrepresenta>onofregionalclimatevariabilityandchangein

theMESM

STATISTICALDOWNSCALING

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

Pa=ernscalingmethod:

WATERIMPACTS

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

BASIN-SCALE WATER

BALANCE AND

STRESS

WATER SYSTEM

MANAGEMENT ROUTING

RUNOFF

MUNICIPAL AND INDUSTRIAL

DEMAND

IRRIGATION DEMAND

ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS

POPULATION GDP

TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION

EPPA

ECONOMIC PROJECTION

AND POLICY

ANALYSIS

MESM

MIT EARTH SYSTEM MODEL

Fantetal(2016)Projec>onsofWaterStressBasedonanEnsembleofSocioeconomicGrowthandClimateChangeScenarios:ACaseStudyinAsia.PLoSONE11(3):e0150633.

Monthlyclimatevariables,biasedcorrected

DISTRIBUTIONSOFWATERIMPACTS

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

Fantetal(2016)Projec>onsofWaterStressBasedonanEnsembleofSocioeconomicGrowthandClimateChangeScenarios:ACaseStudyinAsia.PLoSONE11(3):e0150633.

CHANGEINWATERSTRESSINDEX(WSI)BY2050

INDIA CHINA

DYNAMICALDOWNSCALING

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

MITIGSM-CAMframework:

Trace gas fluxes (CO2, CH4, N2O) and policy constraints

CO2, CH4, CO, N2O, NOx, SOx, NH3, CFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, VOCs, BC, etc.

Hydrology/ water resources

Agriculture, forestry, bio-energy, ecosystem productivity

Human health effects

Implementation of feedbacks is under development

Exchanges utilized in targeted studies

Exchanges represented in standard runs of the system

Earth System

Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA)National and/or Regional Economic Development,

Emissions & Land Use

Human System

Land use change

Atmosphere2-Dimensional Dynamical,

Physical & Chemical Processes

Ocean3-Dimensional Dynamical, Biological, Chemical & Ice

Processes (MITgcm)

Urban AirshedAir Pollution Processes

LandWater & Energy Budgets (CLM)

Biogeochemical Processes (TEM & NEM)

Coupled Ocean, Atmosphere, and Land

Sea level change

Climate/ energy demand

Wind stress

Solar forcing

Volcanic forcing

CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, SOx, BC and O3

Land use change

SSTs andsea ice cover

CAM3

Atmosphere3-Dimensional Dynamical

& Physical Processes

LandWater & Energy Budgets (CLM)

Coupled Land and Atmosphere

Solar forcing

Volcanic forcing

3DatmosphericmodelisdrivenbyIGSM:-  SSTandseaice-  greenhousegasesconcentra>ons-  aerosolsconcentra>ons-  Landuselandcoverchange

AIRQUALITYANDHEALTHFRAMEWORK

Concentration Response Functions

Future Health Incidence Rate New Health Incidence Rate

Valuation (Cost of Illness, Lost Income, Contingent Valuation)

Economic Impact by Policy

Future Population Demographics

Change in O3 & PM Concentrations

populationpollution

Climate(IGSM-CAM)

Air Quality(CAM-Chem)

Population(BenMAP)

Health Incidence(BenMAP)

Valuation(BenMAP)

Change in Climate & Emissions

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

3-hourly3Dmeteorologicalfields(temp,humidity,wind…)nonbiasedcorrected

Anthropogenicandbiogenicemissions

AIRQUALITYANDHEALTHIMPACTS

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

Garcia-Menendezetal(2016)NaturalvariabilityinmodelingassessmentsofclimatechangeimpactsonU.S.ozonepollu>on.GRL,underreview.

Changesinsummer8-h-maxO3by2100

SUMMARYOFDOWNSCALINGMETHOD

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

APPROACH STRENGTHS LIMITATIONS

IGSM-Pa=ernscaling(sta>s>calapproach)

•  Canemulatemul>plemodels•  Computa>onallyefficient•  Canderivefulldistribu>ons

•  LimitedtoTandP•  Limitedtomonthly>mescale•  Cannotsimulatechangesin

variabilityandextremes

IGSM-CAM(dynamicalapproach)

•  Canexplorenaturalvariabilityandextremesevents

•  NotlimitedtoT,P(candrivemodelsrequiringvariousinputvariablesor3Dfields)

•  Hightemporalresolu>on

•  Limitedtoasinglemodel•  Computa>onallyintensive•  Canonlyapproximatethe

boundsofthedistribu>ons

Strengths and limitations of the 2 downscaling methods

Limitedrepresenta>onoffeedbacks(i.e.forregionalclimatechange)

MESM3D

EarthSystem

OCEANDynamical, Biological and

Chemical Processes

SEA ICEThermodynamical andDynamical Processes

LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,

Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics

COUPLEDSYSTEM

LAND ICEIce Sheet Dynamics and

Sea Level Rise

CHEMISTRYChemical Gases, Aerosols

and Carbon Cycle

ATMOSPHEREDynamical and Physical

Processes

- EFFICIENT -> DETAILED CHEMISTRYFLEXIBILITY TO CHANGE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY

AND STRENGTH OF AEROSOL FORCING

- METHANE MODEL- CROP MODEL- CARBON-NITROGEN- LAND-USE CHANGE- BIOGENIC EMISSIONS

- SIMPLE -> FULL DYNAMICAL- FLEXIBILTY TO CHANGE OCEAN HEAT UPTAKE RATE

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

low->highresolu>on

IGSM3D3PATHWAYFORCOUPLINGBETWEENHUMANANDEARTHSYSTEMS:

EarthSystem

OCEANDynamical, Biological and

Chemical Processes

SEA ICEThermodynamical andDynamical Processes

LANDHydrology, Biogeophysics,

Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Dynamics

COUPLEDSYSTEM

LAND ICEIce Sheet Dynamics and

Sea Level Rise

CHEMISTRYChemical Gases, Aerosols

and Carbon Cycle

ATMOSPHEREDynamical and Physical

Processes

Human System

CONSUMERSECTORS

PRODUCERSECTORS

PRIMARY FACTORS

GOODS & SERVICES

INCOME

EXPENDITURES

REGION A

REGION B

REGION C

TRADE FLOWSBETWEEN REGIONS

ANTHROPOGENICEMISSIONS

MORTALITY & MORBIDITY

CONCENTRATIONS OFAIR POLLUTANTS

HEALTH MODULE

PHYSICAL WATER SUPPLY,AGRICULTURE WATER NEEDS

WATER RESOURCEMANAGEMENT

MODULE

WATER AVAILABILITYFOR DOMESTIC, ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL USE

WATER NEEDS FORDOMESTIC, ENERGY

AND INDUSTRIAL USE

IRRIGATION AVAILABILITY

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY,BIO-ENERGY & ECOSYSTEM

PRODUCTIVITY

FERTILIZER APPLICATION,LAND-USE CHANGE

LAND PATHWAY

•  AIRQUALITY&HEALTH•  WATERRESOURCES•  LAND

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

INTERACTIONSBETWEENSECTORS:

•  OZONE&AGRO-FORESTRYSECTOR•  WATERRESOURCES&AGRICULTURE•  AIRQUALITY&WATERQUALITY

CLIMATEMODELINGINTHEMITIGSM§  Hierarchyofmodels

•  Earthsystemmodelofintermediatecomplexity•  Climateemulators•  State-of-the-artclimatemodels

§  Towardamoreintegratedrepresenta>onofthehuman-earthsystem•  Morerealis>c(?)

§  Arefeedbacksbetweenhumanandearthsystemsimportant?•  Land-usechange<->regionalclimatechange

§  Areinterac>onsbetweenmul>-sectorimpacts/co-benefitsimportant?•  Airquality&land-usechange(biogenicemissions,ozonedamage)•  Waterscarcity&cropproduc>on(irriga>on)

§  Be=erexploretheroleofnaturalvariabilityonclimateimpacts

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

ThedevelopmentoftheMITIGSMwassupportedby:

§  theU.S.DepartmentofEnergy,OfficeofScience,underDE-FG02-94ER61937

§  theU.S.EnvironmentalProtec>onAgency,underXA-83600001-1

§  othergovernment,industry,andfounda>onsponsors

Foracompletelistofsponsors,pleasevisit h=p://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/all.

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop

THANKYOU

ANY QUESTIONS?

2016JGCRIAnnualIntegratedAssessmentWorkshop