Climate Mapping and Analysis Activities Climate Mapping and Analysis Activities at the PRISM Groupat the PRISM Group

Climate Mapping and Analysis Activities Climate Mapping and Analysis Activities at the PRISM Groupat the PRISM Group

PRISM GroupPRISM Group

Northwest Alliance for Computational Science and EngineeringNorthwest Alliance for Computational Science and EngineeringOregon State UniversityOregon State UniversityCorvallis, Oregon, USACorvallis, Oregon, USA

http://prism.oregonstate.edu

PRISM GroupPRISM Group

• 5-FTE applied research team at Oregon State University, 100% externally funded

• The PRISM Group is the only center in the world dedicated solely to the spatial analysis of climate

• PRISM climate mapping technology has been continuously developed, and repeatedly peer-reviewed, since 1991

• The PRISM Group is the de facto climate mapping center for the US

• The PRISM Group is advancing “Geospatial Climatology” as an emerging discipline

- Generates gridded estimates of climatic parameters (e.g., P, T, DP)

- Moving-window regression of climate/weather values vs. elevation or climatology for each grid cell

- Uses nearby station observations

- Spatial climate knowledge base weights stations in the regression function by their physiographic similarity to the target grid cell

PRISMParameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model

PRISM spatial climate knowledge base accounts for spatial variations in climate due to:

- Elevation- Terrain orientation – rain shadows- Terrain profile – terrain enhancement of precipitation- Moisture regime – exposure to moisture sources- Coastal proximity – marine air intrusion- Two-layer atmosphere – inversion layer, free atmosphere- Topographic position – susceptibility to cold air pooling

PRISM

PRISM Spatial Climate Datasets

Western Canada China

Taiwan

Mongolia

Caribbean Islands

All data sets are state-of-the-art,and are used as the standard for

evaluation of other methods

50 US States & Poss.

New Official US Plant Hardiness Map (USDA)

Over 1,000 SCAS Maps

•Mean lowest temperature of the year

•Used by seed producers, nurseries, and gardeners to determine plant suitability

•The most heavily used climate map in the country

•Quality substantially better than 1990 map

•Averaging period is subject of controversy

http://prism.oregonstate.eduhttp://prism.oregonstate.edu

CONUS 1895-Present Monthly Climate Time Series

•Tmax, tmin, precip, dew point•4-km grid resolution, work under way on an 800-m version

• At each grid cell, provides realistic historical values and variability

PRISM Mean Annual Precipitation122W, 44.5N - Oregon Cascades

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Use of National Use of National

and Regional PRISM Data Setsand Regional PRISM Data Sets

• Official spatial climate data sets of the USDA

• Climate monitoring and future projections• Retrospective analyses

• National Weather Service Forecasts• Weather Channel Forecasts

• Thousands of users, both public and private, who require high-quality spatial climate analyses

Small-Scale Climate Research :Upper South Santiam River Watershed

Upper South Santiam River Watershed4 October 2003

1278 m

442 m

Climate Research at the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest LTER Site

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Anti-cyclonic Zonal Cyclonic

Flow StrengthL = LowM = MediumH = High

• Lapse rate depends strongly on weather pattern

Clear & calm

Cloudy & windy

• Spatial temperature patterns depend strongly on lapse rate

• Changes in frequency of weather patterns create changes in the spatial patterns of temperature

Corvallis – Newport = 3.8C Corvallis – Newport = 10.8C

CCNN CCNN

1971-2000 July Tmax Temperature Patterns Conditioned on 700-mb Flow Strength and Curvature

1971-2000 July Tmax Temperature Patterns Conditioned on 700-mb Flow Strength and Curvature

PRISM Probabilistic-Spatial QC (PSQC) System PRISM Probabilistic-Spatial QC (PSQC) System for SNOTEL Datafor SNOTEL Data

Provides a continuous, quantitative confidence probability for each observation, estimates a replacement value, and provides a confidence interval for that replacement.

• Start with daily max/min temperature for all SNOTEL sites, period of record

• Move to precipitation, SWE, soil temperature and moisture

• Develop automated system for near-real time operation at NRCS

Meteorological Data QC SystemMeteorological Data QC System

Some New Projects…Some New Projects…

Preliminary solar radiation mapping for Oregon (pending)Sun Grant GIS biomass inventoryODA pinning maps and Internet mapserverAlaska climate mappingDownscaling climate to 80-m resolution800-m time series climate mapping (ARSC)

http://prism.oregonstate.edu