Climate Literacy & Climate Literacy & Climate Change ContentClimate Change ContentFor Spherical DisplaysFor Spherical Displays

Frank NiepoldNOAA Climate Program Office

Silver Spring, MD USA

NOAA SCIENCE ON A SPHERE USERSCOLLABORATIVE NETWORK 2008

Hilo, Hawaii 31 July 2008

Keith W. Dixon NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LabPrinceton, NJ USA

Climate Models as Virtual Time MachinesClimate Models as Virtual Time Machines

1850 ….... 1900 ….... 1950 ….... 2000 ….... 2050 ….... 2100

Lacking a Time Machine, Climate Models provide the most credible, science-based means to quantitativelyproject how the planet’s climate will respond to changes in greenhouse gases & other climate “forcing agents”.

Land physicsand hydrology

Ocean ecology andbiogeochemistry

Atmospheric GCM

Tracer transport and chemistry

Land ecology andbiogeochemistry

Ocean GCM

Sea ice model

A Global Climate Model is a mathematical representation of the major climate system components and their interactions. The model equations operate on a grid and are solved on a computer.

Model gridsModel gridsAt GFDL, our “workhorse” models have more than 300,000 atmospheric grid cells and a couple million ocean grid cells.

And there’s thousands more grid cells for the land and sea ice model components.

Finer grid resolution (smaller 3-D grid cells) is desired by scientists and stakeholders, but is limited by computer resources.

Model gridsModel grids

This cube has 27 “grid cells”

Imagine about 100,000 of these combined to form a globe…that’s the scale ofcurrent workhorse globalclimate model.

Now image > 2½ million ofthese combined … that’sthe number of grid points ina GFDL global climate modelwe’re testing. (~78 million pts)

Our “next generation model”?

Observational recordscan tell us about the past and the present…

This week we’ve seen numerousexamples of observationalinfo wonderfully communicatedusing spherical displays.

…state-of-the-artclimate models canprovide info by simulatingthe past, present, & future.

We learn & gain confidence from theirability to simulate observed large-scale, decade to decade variations.Used to project future “If…Then”scenarios.

Some of what Some of what climate climate models offer:models offer:

Can simulate potential futureconditions and the past quantitatively.

Can simulate linkages between the different Global Climate System components (air, ocean, land, sea ice, biogeochemistry)

Can isolate individual factors (role of natural vs. human-induced climate forcing factors).

Can provide insight into whethershort term “wiggles” or trends areclimate signals or just random noise.

Climate models aspowerful yet imperfect

tools that allow us to ask

““What if…”What if…”science questions.

SEA ICE

NOAA/GFDL CLIMATE MODEL PRODUCTS

SURFACE AIRTEMPERATURE

NOAA/GFDL CLIMATE MODEL PRODUCTS

Schematic of 3-D Ocean CirculationSchematic of 3-D Ocean Circulation

After Gnanadesikan & Hallberg, 2002

Simulated Ocean Heat Content ChangesSimulated Ocean Heat Content Changes

Simulated Ocean Heat Content ChangesSimulated Ocean Heat Content Changes

Progress in Climate Science Occurs Progress in Climate Science Occurs via a Synthesis of Observations, via a Synthesis of Observations, Theory, & Numerical ModelingTheory, & Numerical Modeling

Since the 1970s, many of themajor advancements in climate science have come about asimproved observations, refinements to theory, and theresults of computer modelinghave revealed a consistent story.O

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One of the Climate Literacy Principles:One of the Climate Literacy Principles:

Revolutionizing Earth System Science Education for the 21st Century Report, 2007 (page 34)

Atmosphere, Weather and Climate Education in the U.S.

…a continuum of competency

Literacy Progression

Target Audiences

Uninterested and/or unaware

Climate science interested

Climate science attentive

Climate science engaged

CLI

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INFORMEDDECISION MAKING

KNOWLEDGE

AWARENESS

Climate Literacy is…Climate Literacy is…

Long-term, the vision expects a society capable of informed decision-making

9-12

3-5

6-8

K-2

Current Federal Partners. Current NOAA, EPA, NSF and US Forest Service

Current National Partners. UCAR, NCAR, CIRES, AMS, TERC, GLOBE program, College of Exploration, ESIP federation, ASTC IGLO, LHS, AAAS Project 2061, NAAEE

Observations, experiments, and theory used to construct and refine computer models and develop scientific explanations lead to better understanding of the linkages between the atmosphere-ocean system and how it relates to the overall climate system’s behavior. As a result, more reliable projections of future climate changes will develop over time.

The consensus of scientific opinion is that the natural processes driving long-term climate changes cannot entirely explain the rapid changes observed in recent decades, nor do they solely predict those projected for coming decades.

The preponderance of scientific evidence indicates that the observed increase in global average temperatures since the latter part of the 20th century is very likely due to documented increases in human-induced greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels.3 (3 Based on IPCC 2007: The Physical Science basis: Contribution of Working Group I)

Fundamental characteristics of the climate system have been researched and are understood well enough to make reasonably accurate predictions about the climate system and, therefore, to support decision making, even though research continues into many aspects of climate change.

Climate Science SourcesClimate Science Sources

Figure SPM.4

Climate Science SourcesClimate Science Sources

Individual papers vs assessments