Climate Knowledge for Communities
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Climate Knowledge for Communities (CLICOMM)
Jaakko Helminena*, Silvia Gaianib, Ansa Helminena, Antonio Leaoc, Erkki Sutinena
aSchool of Computing, University of Eastern Finland, PO Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland
bDepartment of Agricultural and Food Sciences, University of Bologna, Via Zamboni 33, I-40126 Bologna, Italy
cMinistry of Science and Technology, Avenida Patrice Lumumba n.o 770, Maputo, Mozambique
Presentation Edutech & UNITAR Symposium – Digital storytelling, crowdsourcing and science education for international research
and training, August 29, 2013, Joensuu, Finland
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Background and Motivation
• The 20th century was the century of analysis based on new discoveries and exploring biological systems in ever increasing detail (from discovery of DNA to mapping of the human genome), creating new disciplines in the process
• The 21st century is rapidly becoming the century of synthesis with much greater emphasis on holistic approaches and creating new insights at the interfaces of disciplines (transdisciplinary)
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Quality of information
• Uncertain – no or incomplete knowledge of distributions
• Risk – variability present, but information can be presented in terms of distributions and probabilities
• Certain – fixed known values and no variability
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Probability – a dualistic concept
• Probability as a measure of observed frequencies or as a theoretical concept (objective probability and calculus of probability)
• Probability as a measure of the degree of belief (subjective probability)
• Uncertainty vs probabilities – decision making
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Probability as an essential concept for scientific climate services
• Most climate data can be expressed as distributions
• Consequently the user can estimate probabilities which correspond to the chosen threshold values
• This gives a natural forum to the climate service and its user for their mutual co-operation
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Crowdsourcing (Merriam – Webster Dictionary)
• Practice of obtaining needed services, ideas or content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people
• The problem is outsourced to an undefined public rather than to a specific, named group (crowdsourcing ≠ outsourcing)
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HOLISTIC CLIMATE SERVICES
1. Engagement and integration to the total system
2. Climate knowledge3. Participatory and transdisciplinary working
mode4. Both grassroot (bottom-up) and top-down
approaches needed in this order5. Development by iteration
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Climate knowledge
• Maturity to use climate information in a constructively critical way within a holistic context
• Life-long process• Challenge for education
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Principal steps for holistic scientific climate services
Salience: Mutually perceived relevance of the information
Credibility: Mutually perceived technical quality of the information
Legitimacy: Mutually perceived objectivity of the process by which the information is shared (ownership)
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04/08/2023 Ilmatieteen laitos / PowerPoint ohjeistus
10
Towards a Typology of Risks, Baselines, and Responses(adapted from the LWCVC Address by Dr. J. Sachs)
Risks Baseline Responses
Modeling and Monitoring
Hydrological: Household capital Vulnerability reduction: droughts Community capital forecasting and early floods Infrastructure warning buffers, e.g. mudslides Government reserves financial aquifers forex water storageHeat Stress credit lines sea breaks
human health Natural capital ecosystems crop yields water storage InsuranceDisease irrigation DiversificationPests crop yields Relief and response
Storms Hazards risks MigrationSea level coastal
seismictopography
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Climate services and decision making
• Social structure• Local culture• Local environment• Communication• Readiness for disaster management• Level of livelihood• Level of self-sufficiency
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Modern irrigation and fertilization system
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Modern farming equipment
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X I L E M B E N E
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C H I H A Q U E L A N E
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IMPLEMENTATION DELPHI PANEL (IDP)
• Broad Expert Information Process (BEIP)• Consists of four stages:
1 Encountering stage2 Opening stage3 Discourse stage4 Concluding stage
• Focus on commitment and implementation options
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CLASSES OF EXPERTS1. Experts in science (invariances)2. Decision-makers (allocation of
resources and funds)3. Synthetizers (balanced overall
view)
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G E N E R A L A D V I C E S• Make your plan and book the appointments
well in advance• During your spare time hang around actively
in the local area• Listen to the stories of the local people• Sudden events can reveal a lot more about the
local life than planned interviews• Grey information can be important
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ENCOUNTERING STAGE (1)
Communities
IDP/IG
Initial interviews
(IDP/II)
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ENCOUNTERING STAGE (2)
IDP/IIIDP
Management Group (IDP/MG)
IDP Expert Group (IDP/EG)
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OPENING STAGE
IDP/IG
IDP/EG
Deep interviews of the experts
(IDP/DI)
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DISCOURSE STAGE
Discourse through
workshops and direct
discussions (IDP/DISC)
IDP/IG
IDP/DI
IDP/MG
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CONCLUDING STAGE
IDP/DISC
IDP/MG
Report, dissemination
and implementation
(IDP/RDI)
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I M P L E M E N T A T I O N (1)
• General Theory of Consistency (GTC)• Non-learning cultivator vs. learning cultivator• Field experiments in each of the five
communities implemented in two parcels (≈ 0.5 ha), one fertilized and one non-fertilized
• The cultivated variety may vary with the community
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I M P L E M E N T A T I O N (2)
• Gender and age equality • Learning skills• Access to all generated information
including climate service products by appropriate mobile phones
• Learning cultivators are trained to use the innovated practices
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I M P L E M E N T A T I O N (3)
• The field experiments during the latter half of the rain season 2013-2014 in January-March 2014 and during the first half of the rain season 2014-2015 in October-December 2014
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I M P L E M E N T A T I O N (4)
• The planning and implementation of the relocation project is still under preparation but will be focused on a limited part of one community.
• Collection and data mining of stories plays an important role in the development as well as in evaluation
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C O M M U N I C A T I O N1. In its essence a fundamental and penetrative
concept2. Technically a resilient network of smart mobile
phones and appropriate software (smart phones) to be developed (ICT experts)
3. Education4. Focal points in the communities5. Active two-way communication (e.g. advice in
extreme weather events, phenology etc.)
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E V A L U A T I O N
• The degree of commitment and the earnings measured by agreed IDP utility functions (IDP/UFc,e) prior to and after the experiments
• The degree of commitment evaluated by agreed appropriate step variables and IDP/UFc
• The earnings evaluated by IDP/Ufe
• Data mining findings on collected stories will complement the results under IDP/UFc
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Thank you!