Climate: Informing Adaptation (Watershed and streams of thought) Roger S. Pulwarty NOAA.
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Transcript of Climate: Informing Adaptation (Watershed and streams of thought) Roger S. Pulwarty NOAA.
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Climate: Informing Adaptation(Watershed and streams of thought)
Roger S. PulwartyNOAA
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Changing environments……..
Climate variability, land-surface, and streamflow
Physical and biological transformations: Storage, diversions and landscape changes
Changing Goals……….
Prior to 1930s, single-purpose economic benefits (e.g., either transportation or irrigation)
Post-1930s:multiple-purpose criteria including flood control, hydropower, fishing, and recreation.
20th-Century: Two dramatic physical impacts
• Water quality decline from return flows of agricultural and municipal waste water• Large-scale diversions of water from one watershed to another
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Geographic Vulnerability of U.S. Residents to Selected Climate-Related Health Impacts
Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses
Social trends can increase our vulnerability to climate change• Concentration of
development along vulnerable coasts
• Aging of U.S. population• Increasing urbanization• Population growth in
South and West
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““The past century is no longer a fixed guide to The past century is no longer a fixed guide to water management” (Everyone!)water management” (Everyone!)
Long-Term Aridity Changes in the West
• Historical Data Used to Manage Water Resources in 20th Century• However…
• Climate Change is already altering water cycle• More changes are expected • Paleoclimate studies tell us the past has been very different
• Many Institutional Barriers to Change• Laws, Decrees, Compacts difficult to modify• Flood Control rule curves might require EIS to modify• Transferring ag water can be difficult
• Changing Water Demands• More Research Needed
• All these stresses mean water management will be doubling challenging
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Extreme Events
Tropical Storms
Droughts/Floods Tropics - El Niño, La Niña
Extratropics - Jet Patterns
Climate Change
Climate Change
WeatherWeather Climate Variability
Climate Variability
Blocking
Change in weather event amplitude and frequency
Teleconnections
Change in climate event amplitude and frequency
Global change Climate Trends
Extremes – Climate Linkage
5
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Framework for relating global climate change to local system…
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Minimizing uncertainty:
Where is the uncertainty? Where is the uncertainty?
--Problem DomainProblem Domain
-science-science
-organizational-organizational
-community-community
-political-political
- adequate theory- adequate theory-multiple hypotheses-multiple hypotheses & congruent management & congruent management actions.actions.-tractability (complexity) -tractability (complexity) -confronting models w/data-confronting models w/data-independence/ rigor-independence/ rigor-novelty-novelty
Gunderson and others
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Managing Uncertainty:
Where is it? Where is it? --Problem DomainProblem Domain
-science-science
-organizational-organizational-community-community-cognitive-cognitive-political-political
- expressions of power- expressions of power- multiple equilibria- multiple equilibria
paths not takenpaths not taken- NONE are scale invariant - NONE are scale invariant - stability of institutions- stability of institutions
novelty of approachesnovelty of approaches-role of epistemic groupsrole of epistemic groups-perception of riskperception of risk-multiple discourses-multiple discourses-juggling domains-juggling domains
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"DEAR APPLICANT"
"THANK YOU FOR SUBMITTING YOUR PROPOSAL"
"TO SAVE TIME, WE ARE ENCLOSING TWO DECLINE LETTERS..."
"...ONE FOR THIS PROPOSAL AND ONE FOR THE NEXT PROPOSAL YOU SEND US"
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"DEAR APPLICANT"
"THANK YOU FOR SUBMITTING YOUR PROPOSAL"
"TO SAVE TIME, WE ARE ENCLOSING TWO DECLINE LETTERS..."
"...ONE FOR THIS PROPOSAL AND ONE FOR THE NEXT PROPOSAL YOU SEND US"
Dear Applicant Thank you for submitting your proposal
To save time, we have enclosed two declining letters
One for this proposal, and one for the next proposal
you send us
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Overview• Adaptation to what?
• Types of adaptation strategies:Existing and proposed
• Assessing impacts of complex events
• Coping vs adaptation
• Applications vs. adaptation
• Informing adaptation
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What would “adaptation” address?
The threat already posed to society from today’s climate variations
Climate-sensitive development paths that might put greater population, ecosystem services, and economies at risk
The potentially high-impact but still critically uncertain additional risks presented by climate change
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How do we adapt?
• Infrastructure/assets
• Technological process optimization
• Institutional and behavioral changes or reinforcement
• Crisis, learning and redesign
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Upgrade and elevate low-lying roads used to transport machinery, supplies, and workers to and from offshoreoil portsBuild higher bridges to accommodate for sea-level riseDesign equipment to withstand increased wave forces and higher storm surge
Adaptation actions
Addressing Oil Infrastructure Vulnerabilities
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Current Plans• Boston, MA
• California
• Chicago, IL
• Colorado
• Homer, AK
• Keene, NH
• King County, WA
• Los Angeles, CA
• Maryland
• Miami-Dade County, FL
• New York City, NY
• Seattle, WA
• Utah
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Adaptation Planning Guidebooks
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Adaptation: Options and Practices in water resources
• Supply Side Technological – Groundwater storage– Increase Storage
Capacity– Desal of Sea Water– Rain-water storage– Removal of phreatophytes– Water Transfers
– Many have adverse environmental (and social) consequences
• Demand SideInstitutional/Behavioral– Recycle Water – Reduce Irrigation Demand– Virtual Water– Water Markets– Economic Incentives
including metering, pricing
– For many effectiveness uncertain
NRDC – In Hot Water
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If it is so easy why is it so hard?
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Multiple competing valuesMultiple, competing objectives
Ecosystemshealth
Hydropower
Recreation
Floodcontrol Agriculture
Consumptiveuse
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Pulwarty and Redmond 1997
Complex environmental problems usually involve the greatest/most:
•Assumptions •Estimates•Inputs from the most people•Stakes•Greatest numbers of uncertainty categories
•Opportunity for resorting to “efficiency” anchoring and reduction of complexity for action
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If so……..
………so what ?
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Why is “communication” not enough?Broad societal processes that create dynamicpressures and unsafe conditions are not easyto change, yet are fundamental to humanVulnerability• The “push” supply of new information by would-be providers of information/technology ,
and the “pull” demand for new information from would-be learners
• More difficult is understanding the socialization of lessons learned by particular individuals and organizations through their own, direct trial and error experiences
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Native American Lands in the Four-Corners Region
(Nature, 2009)
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Nested Scenarios
NPS, NIDIS and others
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Colorado River Interim Guidelines - Time to think-A Robust Solution?
• Operations specified through the full range of operation for Lake Powell and Lake Mead
• Encourage efficient and flexible water use and management in the Lower Basin through the Intentionally Created Surplus (ICS) mechanism
• Strategy for shortages in the Lower Basin2, including a provision for additional shortages if warranted
• In place for an interim period (through 2026) to gain valuable operational experience
• Basin States agree to consult before resorting to litigation
1. Issued in Record of Decision, dated December 13, 2007; available at http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies.html
2. Mexico water deliveries are not directly effected by these guidelines
(US/DoI Bureau of Reclamation)
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There is strong evidence that not all climateRisks are being incorporated in decision making, Even with regard to weather extremes
History is filled with examples of groups andresearchers that have proposed models of societalprogress that turn out in practice to benefit only a fraction of the population
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Average Drought Average DroughtWater Use Urban 8.8 9.0 12.0 12.4 Agricultural 33.8 34.5 31.5 32.3 Environmental 36.9 21.2 37.0 21.3 TOTAL 79.5 64.7 80.5 66.0
Supplies Surface Water 65.1 43.5 65.0 43.4 Groundwater 12.5 15.8 12.7 16.0 Recycled & Desalted 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 TOTAL 77.9 59.6 78.1 59.8
Shortage 1.6 5.1 2.4 6.2
1995 2020
California’s Water Use(million-acre feet)
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– Workshops and meetings (shared scenario construction; shared model building?)
– Presentations and briefings (incl. locally organized events, e.g. hearings)
– One-on-one technical assistance – Coordination with other ongoing projects– Work with the local media– Web site development and maintenance– Graduate-level courses on climate impacts &
adaptation
Where do science and policy speak
to each other?
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?
From climate impactsassessment to waterresources practice—Okanagan, Canada
1990s 2006
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Stakeholder Interest•Regional development
•Jobs
•Liability
•Quality of life
Climate Information•Forecasts
•Trends
•Scenarios
outreach
Climate information flow: traditional/technical framing
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Climate information
•Forecasts•Trends•Scenarios
Filter / medium
•Hydrograph•Crop model•Health risk•Water demand model•Decision support
tool
Practitioner interest
•Risk assessment•Design standards•Operating rules•Allocations
delivery translation
Technicalframe Application
frame
Non-Climate Information
•Current status •Trends•Scenarios
deliv
ery
outreach
Climate information flow: applications framing
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Basic/systemic and applied,vs. adaptation research
Basic/Technical Applications Procedural/
Frame frame Adaptive frame
Quality Relevance
Consistency Compatibility
Economic potential Usefulness
Dissemination Communication
Efficiency Efficiency
Expert Consultative
Direct outcome Direct outcome
Access
Legitimacy
Usability
Capacity
Equity
Co-production
Multiple outcomes
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Climate information
•Forecasts•Trends•Scenarios
Filter / medium
•Hydrograph•Crop model
•Health risk model•Water demand model•Decision support
tool
Practitioner interest
•Risk assessment•Design standards•Operating rules•Allocations
usability
accesscapacity
Stakeholder Interest
•Regional development•Jobs•Liability•Quality of lifelegitimacy
Technical frame
outreach
Non-Climate Information
•Current status •Trends•Scenarios
outreach
context
deliv
ery
deliveryA
pp
lication
fram
e
equ
ity
Co
Pro
du
ction
(Pulwarty and Cohen, 2009)
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“ALSO, THE BRIDGE IS OUT AHEAD”
• Acknowledge uncertainties in science, but manage the risks
• Focus onimproving decisions
Focus on the critical problems: not just asking but answering the right question
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The combination of limate variability and change will likely force decisions reexamining
existing statutory and other laws relating to resourceinterests especially water and energy(but rates of change may be faster than this process)
Near-term challenges to the environment, trust responsibilities, and “Implied right” to protection of the habitat from
environmental/land use degradation
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Managing in a changing climate:Adaptation needs
(1) Understand adaptation as being driven by crises, learning and redesign- Role of “surprises” in shaping responses
• Human action in response to projections is reflexive
• Key drivers, such as technological innovation and change, are unpredictable with great accuracy on scales that matter for regional and local decisions-both pressures and solutions
• The system may change faster than the models can be recalibrated, particularly during turbulent periods of transition-Projections may be most unreliable in precisely the situations where they are most desired
• Inactions, actions and consequences
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Adaptation needs-(2) Early warning systems for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales: Extremes in the context of change
(3) Derive risk profiles and a portfolio of measures for each location/unit of analysis, identifying the broader economic, social and environmental benefits of each measure along with its costMethodological developments:
• Cost-effectiveness-costs of action and of inaction• Technological Efficiency:Drivers of adoption• Renewables:Viability and offsets• Evaluation: Infrastructure vs emergent events
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(4) Science for adaptation-Sustain a collaborative framework between research and management -
Engage both leadership and the public
Scenario planning to address problem-definition and characterize multiple uncertainties-technical as well as institutional capacity
Prioritize and select climate adaptation and resilience measures and revise periodically
(extremes, variability and change) and development•Assumptions-e.g. climate knowledge, forecasts of socio-economic trends and drivers of growth•Effectiveness- Short-term adjustments/coping that constrain or enable longer-term risks•Benefits-adaptation in support of development goals•Limits-to adaptation e.g. ocean acidification
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Impediments to the flow of knowledge among existing components
Policies and practices that can give rise to failures of the component parts working as a system
Opportunities for and constraints to learning and institutional innovation
Mapping decision making processes and Mapping decision making processes and climate information entry pointsclimate information entry points
Knowledge “of” a process is not equal Knowledge “of” a process is not equal to knowledge “in” a processto knowledge “in” a process
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Expectation
Better integrated understanding of the multiple
functions of climate, socio-economic systems
will lead to greater focus on balanced
conservation as a subject of policy and to more
coherent support among policy makers and
stakeholders
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A Complex Portfolio of Drivers
Direct Drivers
Indirect Drivers
EcosystemServices
Human Well-being
Direct Drivers of Change Changes in land use Species introduction or removal
Technology adaptation and use
External inputs (e.g., irrigation)
Resource consumption Climate change Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)
Indirect Drivers of Change Demographic Economic (globalization, trade, market and policy framework)
Sociopolitical (governance and institutional framework)
Science and Technology Cultural and Religious
Human Well-being and Poverty Reduction
Basic material for a good life
Health Good Social Relations Security Freedom of choice and action
Melillo and others
>1YEAR
10YEARS
30YEARS
100YEARS
SHORT-TERM-Seasonal
DECADE-TO-CENTURY
30DAYS
1-4SEASONS
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1. Classic decision analysis,2. Traditional scenario planning,3. Robust decision making,4. Real options, and5. Portfolio planning.
Decision Support Planning Methods: Incorporating Climate Change Uncertainties
into Water Planning
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Info: Levi Brekke ([email protected]),Jim Prarie ([email protected])
… LC/UC 2007 approach has since been extended to blend paleo-spell and projected climate/hydrology (Reclamation 2009)
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Resources Internal freshwater flowsExternal flows
populationAccess % pop with access to potable water
% with access to sanitation% pop with access to water for irrigation
Capacity purchasing power parity per capita income
Gini coefficientWater carrying times
Use domestic water use l/day Share of water use by industry and agriculture adjusted by GDP sector share
Environment Indices of water quality Water stress pollution
Environmental regulation and managementInformational capacityBiodiversity based on threatened species
Use of natural resources
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Resource
Access
Use Capacity
Environment
Water Vulnerability Index
50
100
x
x
x
x
x
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A weak track record for the implementation of adaptive management:
Successful Modeling failure Implementation failureSuccessful Modeling failure Implementation failure
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Paradoxes?
• Decentralization….. better coordination/integrated data. Nation vs. States vs. community priorities: Jurisdictional externalities
• Cumulative reduction of smaller scale risks…… may increase vulnerability to large events
• Planning…….“action” only after crisis or focusing event. Lessons available on particular events but not to gradual changes (or abrupt regime shifts)
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• Integrated River Basin management….National vs. States vs. borderlands priorities
• Develop procedural/participatory mechanisms: Coalitions of local stakeholders need to be inclusive and transparent………. but this can lead to power struggles/robustness under stress
• Keep the water flowing for my needs…and, oh yeah ……protect that environment thing
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• Tradeoffs between “decision quality” and “acceptability”
• Markets allow flexibility for adjustment to risks in hydrological uncertainty---Meeting other public values through markets, especially environmental requirements, remain difficult
• Risk models are needed but fail just when they might be most heavily relied on: during periods of rapid transition/response curve steepens
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What leads to “successful” agreements
•Strong focusing events-windows
•Public and leadership engaged
•Social basis for cooperation exists-–meaningful partnerships–Interjurisdictional
•Collaborative framework between research and management-exists and supported
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Big Challenges –plans for water sharing under much greater uncertainty
• Understanding environmental consumptive use trade-offs and environmental management “triage - best bets” given thresholds and irreversibility – and inflow scenarios
• With increasing scarcity we reach thresholds beyond which ecosystem service provision capacities are irreversibly damaged, or require expensive built capital substitutes:
• Floodplain health – amenity, recreational, fishery, existence values• Water of sufficient quality for urban use – salinity, blue green algae, acid
sulfate• Irrigation – orchards, vineyards, dairy herds;
• Triage which things to keep ticking over, which things to let go: this year and in following years with uncertainty
• Building resilience into new Basin plans – planning a wide range of contingencies in – how to share water manage threats, triggers for actions
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53CCSP Unified Synthesis Product: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
What is needed?
That is, we need more scholars who can:
understand and expand the interface between policy and science
are a force pulling us towards fundamental use inspired research
move seamlessly across disciplines
are methodological innovators without becoming technicians
are institution builders
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Science: Credibility and Uncertainty
• Public views of science often adhere to the old Popperian model (theory, hypothesis, critical test, better theory, …) that implies linear progress and continual progress toward truth and exactitude
• When policy advocates discover that they can thrive on scientific ambiguity, they can highlight and exaggerate the significance of scientific disagreement, downplaying the degree of scientific agreement
• Policymakers and the public often have deterministic understandings of the physical/natural world that lead to exaggerated expectations of the possibilities for eliminating uncertainty.
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Usual stakeholder interaction–Concentrates on the incorporation of new knowledge or experience into existing models, decision processes and practices
Adaptive framing:–The most important learning involves values, norms, goals, and the basic “framing” of issues in terms of the drivers and importance–Innovative partnerships incl.joint research
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Responding to developing events
• No single communication-diffusion model is best for all processes
• Idealized forecasts and decision environments form difficult benchmarks to beat
• Simpler diffusion models tend to to forecast response better than more complex ones
• Uncertainty can be used as a dodge to avoid what are really tough policy decisions
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• “Projections” have become mediating tools in the dialog among actors, resistors, decision-makersi.e. not necessarily a “consensus builder” but highlights potential tension and exposes perceptions of risk and uncertainty
e.g. water leasing vs. permanent transfers
How much information is enough?What are the most effective combinations of format and contents?
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Participatory approaches can help to build the science-policy bridge
Role of local experts (practitioners, stakeholders) in climate change impacts-adaptation research
Local context (planning, decision-making)Data, operational perspectivesProfessional networksLocal governments
“Experts” become extension agents for local adaptation
Role of research community changes from initiator of studies to resource for community-based assessmentsBroadens base of investments in impacts-adaptation researchPotential for increased support for monitoring
But a bit of humility helps-neither group knows the answer apriori
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Thank You!
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Problem-solving approaches: System uncertainty and decision stakes (Adapted with permission from Functowicz and Ravetz)
Consultancy (Specific
applications&output)
AppliedSciences
(Forecasts/Impacts)
>2 nd Order Contexts (Regional risk assessments
Decision-support)Decision Stakes:
Problem solvingapproach
System Uncertainty Physical systems and linkages
Economics and Social Dimensions
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Backup slide
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Problems:• The “push” supply of new information by would-be providers
of information/technology , and the “pull” demand for new information from would-be learners
• More difficult is understanding the socialization of lessons learned by particular individuals and organizations through their own, direct trial and error experiences
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Commonalities and Differences: Scenarios
What are the common issues to pay attention
to, across all scenarios?
What are the important
differences across
scenarios?
Need for monitoring – water, caves, are we monitoring the right things?
Thinning forested areas/ prescribed fires Thinning of the fields and carrying capacity Triage / prioritization / tough choices Impacts on paleo and cultural resources Invasives Staff training Focus on conservation, sustainability, and
water management Cave relatively undisturbed
Types of communication Amount of lead time to educate and build
support Degree of hands-on manipulation (eg.
greater improvement needs for the novel ecosystem
Resources and monitoring available The extent of partnerships
Availability and willingness of partners to engage
National Park Service Scenarios Development
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Is the research compatible with existing
decision models?
Is the research accessible to policy/decision maker?
Are policymakers receptive to the
problem and to research?
Is the research relevant for decisions?
Analysis of usefulness for policy/decision making arena
Goals, Criticality, time frame, basis for decisions,usability,entry points, experience
Are the sources/providers of information credible
to the decision maker?