CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Value for money
Climate Information Services: Experiences from CGIAR Research Program on Climate - James Hansen
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Transcript of Climate Information Services: Experiences from CGIAR Research Program on Climate - James Hansen
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Climate Information Services: Experiences from CGIAR
Research Program on Climate
James HansenTheme 2 Leader: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk
IRI, Columbia University, New York
ESA Climate Change, Land and Gender Workshop
Nairobi, Kenya, 17 October
24 Jun 2013
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The What and Why of Climate Services
Message 1: Climate services can make
a contribution to climate-resilient
development investment.
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The cost of climate variability
CR
ISIS
HA
RD
SH
IP
FOR
FEIT
ED
OPPO
RTU
NIT
Y
Climatic outcome (e.g. production, income)
Pro
ba
bili
ty d
en
sit
y
• Climate risk contributes to chronic poverty, vulnerability, food insecurity
• Downside risk: shocks
• Opportunity cost: uncertainty
• Affects farmers, markets, the food system, the “relief trap”
• Climate variability is increasing
• Several opportunities to help agriculture adapt are…
• Dependent on information
• Constrained by information gaps
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Examples
• Adjusting farm management and input use
• Community-level early warning and response to rapid onset hazards (flood, storms)
• Characterize risks for targeting agricultural technology and management
• Index-based insurance to protect assets, increase access to credit and inputs
• Improve safety nets and food security interventions
• Government planning and budgeting?
• Understand climate change vs. natural variability vs. non-climatic changes to inform long-term planning
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Salience: What kind of information do farmers need?
• Types of climate information:
• Historic observations
• Monitored
• Predictive, all lead times ≤ ~20 years
• Some generalizations:
• Downscaled, locally-relevant
• Tailored to types & timing of decisions
• “Value-added” climate information: impacts on agriculture, advisories
• Capacity to understand and act on complex information
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Time scales: weather or climate?
• Depends on time horizon of decision
• Generalizations about increasing lead time:
• Decisions more context- and farmer-specific
• Information becomes more uncertain, hence more complex
• Therefore the scope of services needed increases
HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES …
WEATHER CLIMATE
• Tillage
• Sowing
• Irrigation
• Crop protection
• Harvest
• Changing farming or livelihood system
• Major capital investment
• Migration
• Family succession
• Land allocation
• Crop selection
• Household labor allocation, seasonal migration
• Technology selection
• Financing for inputs
• Contract farming
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Objective 2: Food System Risk
Management
Climate services in CCAFS Theme 2
Objective 1: Local Risk
Management
Scal
e Objective 3: Climate
Information and Services
Fill key gaps:• Knowledge• Tools & Methods• Evidence• Capacity• Coordination
GENDER & EQITY LENS
Enhanced climate services
Enhanced climate
services
Improved, climate-informed responses
Resilient food systems,Improved food security
Enhanced support for managing risk
Climate-resilient rural livelihoods
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CCAFS climate services experience
Message 2: CCAFS is contributing to
bringing climate services to smallholder
farming and agricultural planning.
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Piloting in Kenya, Senegal, …
• Learning laboratory
• Improved information design
• Workshop process
• Evidence of what is possible
• Demand for scaling up
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Climate services for government planning in Ethiopia
• Engagement, analysis of subnational planning, budgeting process
• Social learning platform, testing, dissemination
• Targeted Outcome: climate-informed planning upstream of existing national emergency decision processes.
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Tackling gender and social equity
• Women disadvantaged when scaling up climate services
• Ongoing project (U. Florida):
• Knowledge of how women are disadvantages and how to overcome bias
• Protocol for identifying and addressing inequity in climate communication
• Gender challenges incorporated into training for intermediaries
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Making climate information useful to farmers
• Spatial scale problem
• Beyond seasonal averages
• Onset, length
• Dry spells
• Growing, chill degree-days
• Challenges
• Gaps in data
• Gaps in daily data
• Capacity of NMS
?
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Making climate information useful to farmers
• Started in Ethiopia, with IRI, U. Reading, NMA, CCAFS
• Satellite + station, 10km grid, 30 year complete record
• “Maprooms” built on Data Library software
• Owned, implemented by NMS
STATION BLENDED SATELLITE
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ENACTS at NMS (Ethiopia, Tanzania, Madagascar, …), AGRHYMET
Enables NMS to customize, generate and disseminate locally relevant climate
information without over-taxing limited human resource
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Pulling the pieces together:World Vision-Tanzania
• World’s largest development NGO
• Secure the Future
Tanzania:
• Reach ~1.7M farmers + pastoralists
• 66 ADP offices• staff, partnership
• infrastructure
• Long-term commitment, where needed
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Investing in Climate Services
Message 3: The right investment,
leveraging other efforts, can bring climate
services to smallholder farmers – at scale
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What can we leverage?
• UN Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
• Climate Services Partnership (CSP)
• ClimDev-Africa
• Regional climate centers
• CCAFS Theme 2 hosted by IRI
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What else is needed?Key challenges
• Salience: tailoring content, scale, format, lead-time to farm decision-making
• Legitimacy: giving farmers an effective voice in design and delivery
• Access: providing timely access to remote rural communities with marginal infrastructure
• Equity: ensuring that women, poor, socially marginalized benefit
• Integration: climate services as part of a larger package of support
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What else is needed?Institutional arrangements
• Limitations of supply-driven climate services
• Expand the boundary to agricultural research and development
• Expand the boundaries to give farmers a voice
CLIMATE SERVICE
NMS(climate)
User (farmer)
INFORMATION
CLIMATE SERVICE
NMS(climate)
User (farmer)
VALUE-ADDEDINFORMATION
NARES(agriculture)PARTNERSHIP
CLIMATE SERVICE
NMS(climate)
Co-owner (farmer)
NARES(agriculture)PARTNERSHIP
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Suggestions for investing in climate services for agriculture
• Address climate information supply, communication, use bottlenecks in parallel
• Improving information supply
• Low-hanging fruit for farmer-relevant climate information
• Caution about investing in observing infrastructure alone
• Two-fold path to communication capacity:
• Institutional: through agricultural extension, NGOs
• ICT and media
• Institutional coordination mechanisms. Who owns climate services for agriculture?
• Leverage and coordinate with GFCS, broader climate services community