Climate Information Portal for Copernicus CLIPC€¦ · lipc Frascati, February 4-6, 2014 Value and...
Transcript of Climate Information Portal for Copernicus CLIPC€¦ · lipc Frascati, February 4-6, 2014 Value and...
Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
Climate Information Portalfor Copernicus
CLIPCMartin Juckes
Start: December 2013www.clipc.eu
UK STFC Magellium Ltd. Univeristy of Reading UK Met Office British Oceanographic Data CentreNetherlands: Dutch Met Office Alterra MarisGermany: Technical Uni. Dortmund Potsdam Inst. for Climate Climate Services CentreFrance: IPSL CERFACS TECFinland Met Office Environment Agency (SYKE)
Sweden SMHI Linköping UniversityNorway Met OfficeItaly CMCCSpain University of BarcelonaInternational Joint Research Centre
22 partners, 9 countries + 1 international
5 FP7-SPACE projects prepare for a Copernicus Climate Change Service: 1. ERA-CLIM2 (global reanalysis, Dick Dee, ECMWF)2. UERRA (regional reanalysis, Per Unden, SMHI)3. QA4ECV (air quality ECVs, Folkert Boersma, KNMI)4. CLIPC (climate impact platform, Martin Juckes, STFC)5. EUCLEIA (event attribution, Peter Stott, Met Office)
An overarching WP (led by Albert Klein-Tank) will co-ordinate information exchange between these projects and the outside world, including relevant Commission DGs and joint stakeholders
Albert Klein-Tank (WP11 lead)
Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
CLIPC
ESA J.Huart
Temperature change
Societal impact
Flooding change
● Provide harmonised access to data from many sources;● Information on data value and limitations;● Indices of climate change and climate change impact;● A knowledge base of authoritative information; ● A toolkit to update and extend the collection of indices.
Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
COPERNICUS Services
Marine
Climate
Atmosphere FP7 projects
end,Transitional
funding
5 FP7 projects
start
Mon
th 6
Mon
th 3
6
Phase IIPre-op Phase I
Proof of concept
ERA-CLIM2UERRAEUCLEIAQA4ECVCLIPC
EOI etc.
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Consistent Data Store
Sectoral Information System
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Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
Consistent Data Store
Sectoral Information System
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Petascale data backbone
SentinelsModelsIn-situ
Re-analysis
Data harmonisation
Toolbox for climate impacts
Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
GFCS & CLIPC
lipc Component of CSIS?
Candidate technology
“CSIS comprises global, regional and national centres and entities that generate/process climate information (observations and predictions), and the exchange of data and products to agreed standards and protocols.”
Rupa Kumar Kolli, 2013
Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
Why do we need CLIPC?A little learning is a dangerous thing;
Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring.
Alexander Pope, 1711 (An essay on criticism).
Pope's house, wikipedia
CLIPC is initiating the technical development of a data service
infrastructure to provide a comprehensive source of climate information.
CLIPC is initiating the technical development of a data service
infrastructure to provide a comprehensive source of climate information.
Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
Example: The “hiatus”
IPCC AR5 Global Mean Temperature.. to 2012.
NASA GISS .. to 2013
● How does the extra year of data affect the conclusions drawn in IPCC AR5?
● Can we find a name describes the phenomenon rather than the desires of the climate science community?
Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
Example: The “hiatus”CLIPC can (perhaps):● Update factual statements such as “111 out of 114
realizations show a GMST trend over 1998–2012 that is higher than the entire HadCRUT4 trend ensemble”;
● Make the link between societal issues (the “hiatus”) and relevant areas of scientific enquiry:➢ Gaps in the observational record;➢ Decadal variability in the ocean;➢ Model accuracy.
● Context: discrepancies which have been resolved.
CLIPC cannot:● Resolve scientific issues;● Review the latest literature;
cf. 166in CMIP5
Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
The Global PerspectiveNASA Earth Observation System Data Information
System
“Free [no charge to users] access to data critical to success of EOSDIS” Martha Maiden (AGU, 2013).
Authoritativeassessment
Linking to the end users
Integrating globalresources
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– Structures to organise data defined before data is generated;
– Terms to identify the data within this structure embedded in data files;
– Files held on disk, search metadata held in a database to give fast search performance;
– Access through a range of services;
– Single user account provides access across the entire federation; access authorisation on a project by project basis;
– Access to data across multiple sites.
ESGF: Persistent features
ESGF: Earth System Grid FederationPCMDI: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
Data Access
MARSIPY
EURO4M reanalyses
ngEO
EMODNet
ESA archives
Marine observations
ERA
CLIPCportal
high level interface
data collections
low level catalogue
ESA-CCI
HADOBS
SPECS
Eobs
obs4mip
CORDEXTHREDDS
ESGF-iCMIP5
IS-ENES(2)
climate4impact
THREDDS
CLIPC will exploit existing resources, exploiting the climate data service infrastructure supported by the FP7 projects IS-ENES and IS-ENES2.
IS-ENES: Infrastructure Support for the European Network Earth for Earth System Modelling
CCMI
ISI-MIP
SPECS
Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
Climate4impact.eu (prototype)The climte4impact portal, hosted at KNMI, is able to display data held at any ESGF archive node. It provides a fast and flexible plotting service for CMIP5 and CORDEX data.
(2)
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Producer: MIROCProducer: MIROCProducer: MIROCPu: MIROC
Data provider: MIROC
Identity provider: BADC
Distribution: DIAS (JAPAN)
Visualisation: KNMI
Quality control: DKRZ
Authorisation: PCMDI
A federated system optimises the use of the limiting resource: people.
Climate4impact.eu (prototype)
MIROC CMIP5 simulation, surface temperature 2100
Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
ESPON climate
● Analysis on regional basis, using NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regions;
● Considered a range of environmental impacts;
● Aggregated indicators;
● First attempt of a pan-European cross-sectoral climate change vulnerability assessment.
Temperature change
Economic impact
Flooding changeEuropean Observation Network, Territorial Development and Cohesion (www.espon.eu/).
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News update● There is evidence that severe storm frequency in some areas will increase
as a result of anthropogenic climate change;● Individual events, such as those recently causing severe damage in SW UK
and NW Spain cannot be directly attributed to climate change;● Costs associated with possible increases in severe storm frequency are not
included in the ESPON Climate assessment.
Mainline track west of Exeter, BBC, Feb 5th 2014.
Coast road near San Sebastien, Diario Vasco, Feb 5th 2014.
New events in the context of existing science
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Ranking and aggregation of
impacts
Environmental and societal
impacts
Value added climate data
products
Climate data accessservices
User consultation
Portal and service
integration
Project coordination, scientific lead, dissemination, Copernicus service integration.
1, 9, 10, 11
Schematic overview
3,4 8
7
6
5 2
Delivering products to target users
Value and limitations
Thematic integration
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Value and Limitations● All data to have guidance on value and limitations;
● Ideally include quantitative estimates of uncertainty or expert assessments of uncertainty in calibrated language;
● Data without usable information on uncertainty is likely to be considered of low value in the context of inter-disciplinary studies.
● The data value working group will coordinate the discussion within CLIPC and with the communities.
Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
Scientific leadership in CLIPC● Sustainability roadmap for Copernicus climate data
service infrastructure [month 20] – interim report this year.
● How should the Copernicus climate data service infrastructure be run?
● How can we maintain a service which requires such a diversity of knowledge, both in terms of regional information and scientific domains?
● How should the service interact with the Global Framework for Climate Services and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?
THE END
London, January 14-16, 2014
Climate Information Portal for Copernicus; First General Assembly
3.7) Progress beyond the state of the art
One-stop-shop for climate data accessData discovery and downloadIntegrating data access protocolsUser registration and authorisationVisualisation servicesEfficiency through temporal and geo-spatial data selection of large data collectionsStructured quantified information in data limitationsA knowledge base for current information on climate dataA review of climate impact indicatorsImpact indicators based on new data sets and new approachesGuidance on different approaches to defining indicators of impact on human health and SocietyAggregation of impact indicatorsScenario-based exploration and integrated uncertainty assessment of impact indicatorsInteractive climate impact indicator interface
London, January 14-16, 2014
Climate Information Portal for Copernicus; First General Assembly
Earth Obs
In situ obs.
Predictions
Re-analysis
Simulations
ESA J.Huart{}CLIPC data services
CLIPC impacts toolkit
London, January 14-16, 2014
Climate Information Portal for Copernicus; First General Assembly
ESPON 2013 report (finalised 2011) uses results cited in IPCC AR4 (2007) from the CMIP3 intercomparison, data generated 2005.
Delays between generation and use of data are desirable for research data: there is no other way of understanding and quantifying uncertainty.
London, January 14-16, 2014
Climate Information Portal for Copernicus; First General Assembly
Deliverables and milestones● Review deliverables and milestones, with the emphasis on those due in the 1st 12 months.
● 1 to 2 slides
London, January 14-16, 2014
Climate Information Portal for Copernicus; First General Assembly
– Single user account for data in multiple repositories;
– Common access and service protocols on all repositories;
– Fast search and support for large volume downloads;
– Ability to subset data;
London, January 14-16, 2014
Climate Information Portal for Copernicus; First General Assembly
8.1) Copernicus – The European Earth
Observation Programme
Copernicus consists of a complex set of systems which collect data from multiple sources: earth observation satellites and in situ sensors such as ground stations, airborne and sea-borne sensors. It processes these data and provides users with reliable and up-to-date information through a set of services related to environmental and security issues...
Status: Legislative underpinnings: July 2013
Call for Expressions of Interest in operating the Marine, Atmosphere and Climate Services issued January 21st, 2014.
Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
Dressing ECVs
Take a collection of fresh ECVs;
Add a 150 years of in-situ observations;
Put to one side and mix an ensemble of climate simulations;
Add perturbation experiments for physical understanding;
Natural forcing experiments for attribution;
Scenario runs to illuminate future possibilities;
Feed through impacts models for environmental consequences;
Combine with social and economic models for societal outcomes;
Reduce to standard serving through aggregation.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service will support adaptation and mitigation policies, and provide: reanalysis datasets, climate change analyses, projections based on scenarios, and tailored indicator datasets for different societal sectors.
A call for expressions of interest to bid for the Service Operator role was published by the Commission January 2013.
Albert Klein-Tank (WP11 lead)
Frascati, February 4-6, 2014lipc
Data Access
Impacts toolkit
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CLIPC DATA INPUTSSimulationsProjections
Reanalysis
Observations
GlobalRegional
SatelliteIn-situ
CLIPC DATA OUTPUTSClimate indicesEnvironmental impactSocietal impact
KnowledgebaseH2020 findingsValue and limitationsDetection and attribution