Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest
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Transcript of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest
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Climate Impacts on Climate Impacts on the the Pacific NorthwestPacific Northwest
Eric Salathé
Climate Impacts Group (JISAO/SMA)University of Washington
The Science of Global Warming:The Science of Global Warming:
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Elements of the PNW we study: Water resources Salmon Forests Coasts
Goal: make the region more resilient to climate variations and climate change
The Climate Impacts GroupThe Climate Impacts Group
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Nature’s “Greenhouse EffectNature’s “Greenhouse Effect”
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Is Our Climate Changing? The Pacific Northwest
113 stations with long records
Almost every station shows warming
Urbanization not a major source of warming
warming cooling
100-year Temperature Trends
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1,000 Years of Climate Change
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150 Years of Climate Change
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carbon dioxide concentration has increased by ~30% since 1750’s
from a very long term perspective, these changes are enormous
Humans are altering the atmosphere
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Natural Climate Influence Human Climate Influence
All Climate Influences
Whodunit?
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Will Warming Continue?
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Future Climate Change
Climate is changing, and humans are at least partly
responsible.
Earth’s average temperature will probably increase by
1.8-6.3°F (1-3.5°C) in the next 100 years.
Other climate changes are likely to accompany this
warming (precipitation, storm tracks).
These changes will have both positive and negative
consequences.
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What Might Climate Change Look Like in the Northwest?
We looked at 7 scenarios of future climate from climate models
Averages of 7 scenarios, compared to 20th century: 2F warmer by 2020s 4F warmer by 2050s Slightly wetter
Winters wetter Summers ???
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The Main Impact: Less Snow
April 1
Columbia
Basin
Snow
Extent
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Impacts of Hydrologic Changes
Less snow, earlier melt means More water in winter Less water in summer
Flooding Irrigation Salmon Hydropower Municipal water
Natural Columbia River flow at the Dalles, OR.
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Are We Prepared for a Changing Climate?
Natural resource management presently assumes
Climate does not changeClimate does not change
But what if it does?
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Becoming Climatewise
Use climate information
Requires on-going dialogue between decision-makers, climate scientists, and the general public
Create centralized & adaptable management strategies
Learn from the past
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Becoming Climatewise: Water, Salmon, Forests and Coasts
Water: increase supply, decrease demand, increase management flexibility
Salmon: promote biodiversity by increasing healthy and connected habitat
Forests: maintain a full range of biodiversity
Coasts: recognize role of climate variability and change in coastal issues (erosion & flooding)
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ConclusionsConclusions
Climate change likely to significantly affect the pacific northwest
Main impact: reduction in snowcap, summer streamflow
Will exacerbate existing stresses in many cases Need to retool institutions and government agencies
to respond to climate information and to plan for a changed climate
Consider climate a component of any long-term plan