Climate Impact on MEC’s Infrastructure

– Attempt to Quantify NYC's Risks from Coastal Storm Surges in the Face of Global Warming and Sea-Level Rise.

K. Jacob Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

of Columbia University

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 2

RISK Risk ($-Loss) = ∑ (Hazard x Assets x Fragility)

Moderate Hazard but High Impact

Total MEC built Assets ≈ 2 Trillion $

Infrastructure Assets ≈ 1 Trillion $

Fragilities largely undetermined

This study: How often will which facilities be

flooded, given the sea level rise scenarios?

Only Qualitative Loss and Impact Estimates are

possible at this state of study.

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 3

Landuse Map for MEC Region

Barren Land

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 4

NYC Storm Surge Inundation Map

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 5

Examples: Flooded PATH Station – 1992 Nor’easter

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1992 - Manhattan: FDR Northbound / 80th St.

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La Guardia Airport - Nov. 25, 1950

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Category 1-4 Storm Surge Heights (Worst Case) in ft above NGVD, for PANYNJ Facilities

Ft

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Cat 1 - Manhattan / Bkyn Bat. Tnl.

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Cat 2 - Manhattan / Holland Tnl

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Projected Surge Height & Infrastructure Elev.Using Coney Island Surge Data, all values in feet above NGVD

CCGG

STORM SURGE ELEVATIONS (vertical axis, ft) for 7 recurrence periods Tr between 2 and 500 years (7 curves), and their increase with time (horizontal axis, years) from the present to 2090, due to expected sea level rise for climate model CCGG. Note : 10ft surge has now (in 2000) a recurrence period of 50 years which shortens to 2 years by about 2100. Facility elevations are plotted at arbitrary years, and their symbols are keyed by agency.

STORM SURGE ELEVATIONS (vertical axis, ft) for 7 recurrence periods Tr between 2 and 500 years (7 curves), and their increase with time (horizontal axis, years) from the present to 2090, due to expected sea level rise for climate model CCGG. Note : 10ft surge has now (in 2000) a recurrence period of 50 years which shortens to 2 years by about 2100. Facility elevations are plotted at arbitrary years, and their symbols are keyed by agency.

555

50

500

50

5

500

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 12

Based on Saffir-Simpson (SS) Scale for Hurricanes

Hurricane Risk Estimates for MEC:

one SS=1 every 15-50 years; Loss: $ 5 billion one SS=2 every 30-100 years; Loss: $ 10 billion one SS=3 every 150-500 years; Loss: $ 50 bill. one SS=3-4 every 300-1000 years; Loss: $ 100 bill. one SS=4 every 800-2500 years; Loss: $ >250 bill.

Annualized Loss ≈ $ 100 - 300 Million/Year or about 0.02% of the Gross Regional Product (Acceptable)

But: Probable Maximum Loss (PML) can be on the

order of 0.5 to 25% of GRP !!!

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 13

Conclusions Many infrastructures are at elevations 6 to 20 feet above current sea level and Many infrastructures are at elevations 6 to 20 feet above current sea level and

are now prone to flooding every few decades to a century.are now prone to flooding every few decades to a century. Projecting seal level rise of 1 - 3ft to the year 2100, the same structures will Projecting seal level rise of 1 - 3ft to the year 2100, the same structures will

sustain equivalent flooding every few years to decades, i.e. flooding sustain equivalent flooding every few years to decades, i.e. flooding frequency will rise by factors of 2 to 10 by 2100.frequency will rise by factors of 2 to 10 by 2100.

Unless bold engineering and land use mitigation measures are implemented, Unless bold engineering and land use mitigation measures are implemented, tens to hundreds of billions of dollars of losses from storms and flooding can tens to hundreds of billions of dollars of losses from storms and flooding can be expected every few decades to centuries. be expected every few decades to centuries.

On an annualized basis these losses make only a miniscule fraction of the On an annualized basis these losses make only a miniscule fraction of the GRP (0.0002). But the problem is that extraordinarily large losses can occur in GRP (0.0002). But the problem is that extraordinarily large losses can occur in a a SINGLE LARGE EVENTSINGLE LARGE EVENT ( ≈ $ 100 Bill.) which would be a severe stress on the ( ≈ $ 100 Bill.) which would be a severe stress on the region’s economy in any given year (a few % of GRP), with possible region’s economy in any given year (a few % of GRP), with possible national/international ripple effects. national/international ripple effects.

As “mitigation” emergency evacuation plans have been developed to reduce As “mitigation” emergency evacuation plans have been developed to reduce loss of lives, but they do not prevent financial losses. Long-term mitigation of loss of lives, but they do not prevent financial losses. Long-term mitigation of economic losses, e.g. by new zoning, construction codes, flood insurance economic losses, e.g. by new zoning, construction codes, flood insurance policy, and landuse combined with engineering solutions are not in place, yet policy, and landuse combined with engineering solutions are not in place, yet are URGENTLY needed. They should be implemented as part of the regular are URGENTLY needed. They should be implemented as part of the regular infrastructure rebuilding program which already costs a good fraction of infrastructure rebuilding program which already costs a good fraction of $100Billion/decade.$100Billion/decade.

To win this race against time requires a To win this race against time requires a Change of CultureChange of Culture that must outpace that must outpace the expected Change of Climate.the expected Change of Climate.