Climate, health, food, future
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Transcript of Climate, health, food, future
CRICOS #00212K
Prof Colin Butler ARC Future Fellow
Climate change and global health
June 11, 2014, U3A
with a focus on food
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Summary
Climate change in the context of Limits to Growth.
Primary, secondary and tertiary health effects.
The climate – food – conflict nexus.
Bias to optimism: FAO, IPCC
There is hope: we must keep within our trillion tonne carbon budget, of which we have used just over half.
Civil disobedience and the “sustainability transition”.
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“Peak health” (?)
President Royal Society 2005-2010
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150
125
100
75
50
25
Extreme events – i.e. climate change?
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World food price index (deflated) (1961-2014) (data FAO)
First oil crisis
decline in price due to Green Revolution
oil, speculation, rice panic
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extreme weather events
price plateau: high energy price, climate change, yield limits and other evidence of limits to growth
Index
CRICOS #00212K 1998 2000 2004 2008 2011
Adapted from Murray & King, Nature. 2012; 481: 433-5.
Apparent production cap
2005: Plateau Oil
Production (million barrels/day)
Oil price (US$ per barrel)
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$1 billion a day, from Europe, Nth America
3rd carbon age? (M Klare) risk to water, catastrophic climate change
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Green Revolution: 3 main grains
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“Yield plateaus are evident: wheat, maize in China perhaps irrigated maize in the USA., Korea and China for rice” (Ken Cassman)
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Limits to growth
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Mostly biofuels?
in press
CRICOS #00212KAdapted from FAO: 2010 (SOWFaA)
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World fisheries production: wild vs farmed
some used for aquaculture, some as fertiliser
year
aquaculture
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Secondary
Tertiary
Primary
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Heat waves (fewer cold waves) injuries, floods, fires
secondary
primary
tertiary
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Men
tal h
ealt
h
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1. Occupational hazards (Third World – “the South”)
2. Emergency workers – heat stress
3. Elderly, poor, other vulnerable:
1. Acute (eg confusion, cardiac or renal failure)
2. Possible delayed effects (eg via falls)
4. Other effects on apparently fit people?
Climate Council 2014
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Night-time
Day-time‘Heat Island” Effect: Melbourne, Australia
Heatwave, Jan 2009
From: M Loughnan, Monash University
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Ambulance attendances: heat-related illnesses Metropolitan Melbourne heatwave, 2009
Victorian Dept of Health
Elderly at most risk: vulnerable to exacerbation of chronic illness?
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1995 2000 2005 2010
EURussia
Chicago
despair, economic loss, exposure to asbestos,
mould17
deaths 70k 50k600
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vector borne and infectious diseases, other: eg allergies, air pollutants from fires interacting with heat
secondary
primary
tertiary
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Men
tal h
ealt
h
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3650m (13,000 feet)
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Malaria in Papua New Guinea
Old location
New location
courtesy Prof Ivo Mueller:
Institute of Medical Research, PNG
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Overall reduction, but control more difficult in highlands
Malaria: the great recession (Boyd, 1930)
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secondary
primary
tertiaryFood price rises, social turmoil, famine, conflict, population displacement, refugees
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Men
tal h
ealt
h
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Photo-synthetic
activity
20o C 30o C 40o C
Food Yields: General Relationship of Temperature and Photosynthesis
0%
100%
e.g.: Field & Lobell. Environ Res Lett, 2007: Globally averaged estimate: +0.5oC reduces crop yields by 3-5%.
+2oC
+2oCPlus:•Flood/storm/fire damage•Droughts – range, severity•Pests (climate-sensitive)•Diseases (ditto)
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Nature, 1994
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Rosenzweig & Parry 1994
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Rosenzweig & Parry 1994
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(Source: Easterling et al, 2007)
Modelled major impacts of climate change on crop and livestock yields and on forestry production by 2050
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World -0.6 to -0.9
Developed countries +2.7 to +9.0
Developing countries -3.3 to -7.2
Southeast Asia -2.5 to -7.8 South Asia -18.2 to -22.1 Sub-Saharan Africa -3.9 to -7.5 Latin America +5.2 to +12.5
From: Tubiello & Fischer, 2007
Range (% change)
Modelled range of climate change impacts on global cereal grain production:Percent change, 1990-to-2080
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Climate change will impair farm production in many poor countries and regions
Modelled % change in agricultural production due to climate change, 2080
Source: Cline WR, 2007: Global warming and agriculture: Impact estimates by country. Washington, D.C.: Center for Global Development, Peterson Institute for International Economics (cited in von Braun J (IFPRI), 2007
< -25%
> + 25%
0 to 5%
NA
-15 to -5%LESS
MORE
- 5 to 0%
5 to 15%
15 to 25%
-25 to -15%
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64
36
20
80
Percentage change in yields to 2050
-50 -20 0 +20 +50 +100
UN Devt Prog, 2009
CLIMATE CHANGE to 2050: MODELLED CHANGES IN CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS
Poor Countries Projected to Fare Worst
30
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31 (2011) Nature, 476, 17.
Link between Indian ocean temperatures, anthropogenic climate change and famine in N.E. Africa
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IPCC 2014
Agriculture chapter
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World food price index (deflated) (1961-2014) (data FAO)
First oil crisis
decline in price due to Green Revolution
oil, speculation, rice panic
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extreme events
price plateau: high energy price, climate change, yield limits and other evidence of limits to growth
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IPCC 201434
Doesn’t distinguish between scale of agric’l events; no hint of Limits to Growth
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IPCC 2014
Yield impact of climate trend % per decade35
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IPCC 201436
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IPCC 2014
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IPCC 2014
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Climate change effect
Modelled? Direction Timing
temperature yes varies 1950 on
rainfall partially varies 1990 on
irrigation Partially generally harmful
1990 on
Carbon fertilization effect
Yes (earlier studies
tend more optimistic)
beneficial 1950 on
Butler, 2010
Food and climate models
39
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effect Modelled? Direction Timing
rainfall intensity and distribution
no varies 2000 on
irrigation partially generally harmful
1990 on
Glacial melting no harmful 2050 onCFE on pests no harmful uncertainCFE & cassava no harmful future
Extreme weather events
no gen harmful increasing
Soil quality no gen harmful 2050 on
Sea level rise no harmful 2050 onMonsoon changes
no harmful uncertain
Gulf stream change
no harmful 2100 on
Conflict no harmful now?
Adverse; the models are
optimistic
Butler, 2010 40
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Fischer et al, 2001 (IIASA)
2080: rain-fed cereal production
ECHAM4 model of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology 41
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A risky tradeoff?
1. Possible temporal mismatch
2. “Effective” demand needed for investment
3. Migration as adaptation limited by state boundaries
4. Excessively optimistic soil and other assumptions? Or too pessimistic?
5. Better penetration of Green Revolution in Africa may be protective.
Butler, 2003 42
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pp 1693–1733
“Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century”
but why?
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“The dangerous impacts of
climate change can only be
discussed in terms of
nonlinear behavior.’’
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Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
“The difference between 2 and
4 degrees of warming ..
is civilisation’’
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Waterscarcity
Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage• climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger• armed conflict,
current/recent
From UK Ministry of Defence
[May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture]
Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions
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Lelieveld et al, 2012, Climatic Change
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CRICOS #00212KLelieveld et al, 2012, Climatic Change 47
CRICOS #00212KLelieveld et al, 2012, Climatic Change 48
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“we all joined the revolution. Right away.”
Was this about the drought? “Of course,” she said, “the drought and unemployment were important in pushing people toward revolution.”
Thomas Friedman, NYT, May 20, 2013
CRICOS #00212KSyria, c 2013 50
CRICOS #00212K51Cairo, 2013
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Climate change will 'lead to battles for food', says head of World Bank (April 2014)Jim Yong Kim urges campaigners and scientists to work together to form a coherent plan in the fight against climate change
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very dangerous
catastrophic
IPCC 2013
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me
my nephew
a baby
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Burden of Disease (proportion)
Year widely accepted
now 2050?
PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity)
SECONDARY (eg vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies)
TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”) famine, conflict, large-
scale migration, economic collapse
Mental health effects:
anxiety, depression, post traumatic stress –
anticipation, experience, memory
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what about adaptation?
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A mirage that threatens to trap us in dry sand?
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Adaptation: dreams vs reality
Declared
• dream crops• dream co-operation• dream geoengineering• dream technology
Revealed
• PR campaigns• militarisation• fortress world
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cyclone shelter, Bangladesh dyke, Netherlands
currently acceptable faces of adaptation
unwanted person camp, Australia
Armed border fence, India - Bangladesh
or a fortress world?
TABOO
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Peabody Energy: “Coal Can Help Meet Millennium Goals (Burson-Marsteller)
Mandela: overcoming poverty "is not a task of charity, it is an act of justice".
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Mandela – in favour of economic boycotts over apartheid AND big carbon
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“Exxon Mobil's response to climate change is consummate arrogance”
Bill McKibben, 2014
Unprecedented wildfires are burning in the American westWhat does big oil have to say about climate change?
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” Upton Sinclair
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Adaptation (to peak oil) obvious benefits to air, health; climate mitigation – opposed by big
carbon
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Kenneth Boulding (1910-93)
The Economics of Spaceship Earth
64
“the only person who believes in perpetual economic growth is either a
madman or an economist”
or in the current parliament!
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Reduce by 9% per yr
Reduce by 3.7% per yr
Reduce by 5.3% per yr
Peak year(s):
2011
20152020
Year
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2009
Emissions paths: to keep inside (50% chance) +2oC ‘guardrail’Must constrain post-1750 cumulative emissions to 1 trillion tonnes C[Note: Total emissions to date = ~0.55 trillion tC. Current emissions = ~0.10 trillion tC/decade]
10
8
6
4
2
0
Global emissions: Gt of C and CO2 / yr
Other 50% probability scenarios:1.5 trillion tC ~ 2.6oC2.0 trillion tC ~ 3.2oC Allen et al, Nature, 2009
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Joining the dots: creative destruction, stranded assets and dysfunctional lock-ins; technological and social
“canal mania”
“creative destruction” (Schumpeter’s gale)
“coal mania”
“railway mania”
Eroding the social license
66
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“free-market advocates seem to experience a peculiar loss of faith whenever the subject of the environment comes up” Paul Krugman, 2014 (Nobel Laureate economics)
Subsidies (IMF) (2011)
Fossil fuel $480 billion (0.7% global GDP; 2% govt revenues)
Renewable energy: $88 billion ratio: >5:1
Subsidies (IMF) (2011)
Fossil fuel $2 trillion (factoring in externalities)
Renewable energy: $88 billion; ratio: >20:1
67Hurricane Sandy - $50 billion
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Why We’re in a New Gilded AgePaul Krugman
US political class actively working to restore patrimonial capitalism
Emman
Capital in the Twenty-First Century
Thomas Piketty
68
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Gini co-efficient (%)
ChinaUS
world
Global Gini data (US$) Butler, 200269
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Ingrained inequality
70
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Peters’ Projection
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Global Energy Assessment, 2012
Solar (1975-20072007-10)
NUCLEAR
US$/kwH(2005
dollars)
72
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urgentInequality, dirty energy, limits to growth & climate change are core
interlinked public health issuessustainability solutions will deliver many co-benefits
need radically new ways of thinking and doing
James Hansonarrested again
“society .. like a sorcerer no longer able to control the powers of the nether world whom he has called up by his spells” (Marx, 1848)
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[email protected]://www.canberra.edu.au/faculties/health/courses/public-health/staff-profiles/butler-colin
www.bodhi.net.auhttps://twitter.com/ColinDavdButler
http://globalchangemusings.blogspot.com.au/http://www.cabi.org/bookshop/book/9781780642659
Healthy People, Places and Planet: Reflections based on Tony McMichael’s four decades of contribution to epidemiological understanding (ANU E-Press) (co-eds Jane Dixon, Tony Capon)
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Selected publications:Edited booksButler C.D., editor. Climate Change and Global Health CABI, Wallingford, UK: CABI; 2014, 315 pages.Butler C.D. Dixon J., Capon A.G. Healthy People, Places and Planet: Reflections based on AJ (Tony) McMichael’s four decades of contribution to epidemiological understanding, ANU e-press, Canberra, 2015WHO Technical ReportsMcMichael A.J., Zhou Z-N., Blignaut J., Bradshaw C., Butler C.D. (editor) Gillespie S., Guhl F., Grace D., Sulaiman S.M., Trostle J.A., Utzinger J., Wilcox B.A., Willingham III L., Yang G-J. (2013) Research Priorities for the Environment, Agriculture and Infectious Diseases of Poverty. First report of the World Health Organisation/Special Program on Tropical Diseases Research Thematic Reference Group IV. Technical Report 976
ArticlesBowles D, Friel S, Butler CD. (2013) Climate change and health in Earth’s future. Earth’s Future 2:60-67Butler CD. (2012) Infectious disease emergence and global change: thinking systemically in a shrinking world Infectious Diseases Poverty 1:5McMichael A.J. and Butler C.D. (2011) Promoting global population health while constraining the environmental footprint. Ann Rev Public Health 32: 179-197.Butler C.D. (2010) Climate change, crop yields and the future SCN News 38 18-25.Butler C.D. (2010) Lightening our carbon footprint: economics, norms and doctors Med J Australia 192:485-486.Butler C.D., Harley D. (2010) Primary, secondary and tertiary effects of the eco-climate crisis: the medical response Postgrad Med J 86:230-234Butler C.D. (2009) Food Security in the Asia-Pacific: Malthus, limits and environmental challenges Asia Pacific J Clinical Nutrition 18(4) 577-584.Butler C.D. (2009) Food Security in the Asia-Pacific: climate change, phosphorus, ozone and other environmental challenges Asia Pacific J Clinical Nutrition 18(4) 590-597.Bryant L, Carver L, Butler C.D., Anage A. (2009) Climate change and family planning: least developed countries define the agenda. Bull World Health Organisation 87: 852-857.Butler C.D. (2005): Peering into the fog: ecologic change, human affairs and the future EcoHealth 2: 17-21.Butler C.D. (2004): Human carrying capacity and human health. Public Library of Science Medicine 1(3) e55: 192-194. McMichael A.J., Butler C.D., Folke C: (2003): New visions for addressing sustainability, Science 302: 1919-1920.Butler C.D. (2000): Inequality, global change and the sustainability of civilisation Global Change Human Health 1(2): 156-172.Butler C.D. (1997): The consumption bomb Medicine, Conflict Survival 13: 209-218.Butler C.D. (1994): Overpopulation, overconsumption and economics Lancet 343: 582-584.