Climate Data in the Real World

John Gross

Inventory & Monitoring, and Climate Change Response ProgramNational Park Service

Ft Collins, COjohn_gross@nps.gov

QEDBoulder, CO15 August 2013

Common uses for climate data from projections:• Planning: Foundation Document, General Management

Plans, Resource Strategies, CC scenario and other workshops

• Assessments: CC vulnerability, coastal & watershed assessments

• Specific resource projects: weed management, species of concern, hydrology, visitor services, infrastructure, visitor safety, revegetation (fire, construction, etc.)

• Education: Interpretation and outreach

Needs range from very general trends to somewhat sophisticated.One size fits nobody.

• What’s appropriate trend measurement, variance / confidence?• What ‘ensemble’ or models to use?• Some variables or metrics of interest ‘unpopular’ (e.g. wind)

CC Vulnerability Assessment of SE Forest Birds – Sillett, Hostettler et al.

• Land cover change, climate • PRISM 800 m for 512 BBS routes• Demographic models, fitted with PRISM• Need 6-10 downscaled model projections

• Need Apr-June ‘aridity’ index –> temp & precip • What GCMs to use (not use)?• Does downscaling technique matter?• How to estimate ‘aridity’?

Other projects:• species distribution modeling (pika,

limber pine, bighorn sheep, vetch, etc.)• VAs – many parks• State of Parks Reports• Infrastructure projects (many!)

Key needs:

• Area-specific evaluations of projections for core variables

• Summary of downscaling methods (strengths/weaknesses; best uses)

• Access to projection & ensemble summaries, and/or ability to specify & generate

• Guidance on identification, selection, and appropriate use of downscaled climate projections