Research Priorities on Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation
Climate Changgp p pe Impacts and Adaptation Options … · Climate Changgp p pe Impacts and...
Transcript of Climate Changgp p pe Impacts and Adaptation Options … · Climate Changgp p pe Impacts and...
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in Serbia –g p p pResults from the ADAGIO Project
D.T.Mihailović (1,1a,1b,1c), B.Lalić (1,1a), R.Jevtić (2), M. Malešević (2), Z K ić (1) Ž P ić (1) d S J ić (2)Z. Keserović (1), Ž. Petrović (1) and S. Jasnić (2)
(1) Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, SERBIA(1a) Center for Meteorology and Environmental Modelling, Department for Physics, ( ) gy g, p y ,
Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, SERBIA (1b) Visiting Professor, The New York State University, Alabany, USA(1c) Visiting Researcher, Norwegina Meteorological Institute, Oslo, NORWAY2) Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops Novi Sad SERBIA2) Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops, Novi Sad, SERBIA
“Milutin Milankovic” Climate Change Center
To my Rose
Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009
gBelgrade
ADAGIO PROJECT: RESPONSIBLE SERBIAN INSTITUTION AND CORRESPONDING CREWINSTITUTION AND CORRESPONDING CREW
“Milutin Milankovic” Climate Change Center
Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009
gBelgrade
CMEP
Among 25 universities of Central Europeg pwhich are on the list of 2000 rankinguniversities in the world. On 1227 placepAmong 5000 world working universities
Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009
http://cmep-serbia.if.ns.ac.yu/
Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009
People
University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Physicsy , y , p y
Professors (Old crew) Young professors PhD candidates (Young crew)Professors (Old crew) Young professors PhD candidates (Young crew)
D.T. Mihailovic,Head of Center
D. Kapor M. Budincevic M. Jevtic I. Arsenic A. Firanj
B. Rajkovic M. Malesevic Z. Mijatovic B. Lalic A. Cirisan I. Balaž
Climate Change in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo, 17 March 2009
New approaches
2) Modelling tools
• Parallelized regional weather forecast Non-hydrostatic model Workstation Etamodel Workstation Eta
• Operationally uses for weather forecast at space resolution 15x15 km for area of Europe with NCEP’sresolution 15x15 km for area of Europe with NCEP s GFS files for initialization and boundary conditions
• ECHAM global climate model• ECHAM global climate model• LAPS land surface scheme• BAHUS prediction occurrence of plant diseases • EMEP chemical model• NEOPLANTA UV radiation model
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
72 – nodes, 288 core PC cluster150 GB DDR 800 MHz RAM15 TB t it15 TB storage capacity
ECHAM l b l int ti nECHAM global integration
REGIONALnon-hydrostatic model
Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, 7 February 2008
ADAGIO STARTING POINT - SERBIA
We had nothing. After that some people had comeand then they were taking everything from us!(Serbian byword about substantial poorness)(Serbian byword about substantial poorness)
“Milutin Milankovic” Climate Change Center
Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009
gBelgrade
Reaearch
Climate change research: Current situation
At this moment we can say: THERE ARE NOT SYSTEMATIC RESEARCH IN CLIMATE CHANGE FIELDSYSTEMATIC RESEARCH IN CLIMATE CHANGE FIELD(1) The activities are going sporadically in university institutions and operationally in met serviceinstitutions and operationally in met. service(2) There is no awareness of people involved in the fundamental and aplicative researchfundamental and aplicative research(3) There is no national strategy
The starting point for the Serbian crew is:
1) We have just project tasks1) We have just project tasks2) All other things we must do. Not only to reach tasks but to do a lot additional
job3) We are starting now from the ground zero
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
3) We are starting now from the ground zero
Adaptation
Ad t ti li t hAdaptation on climate change in Serbiain SerbiaAt this moment we can say: THERE ARE NOT SYSTEMATIC MEASURES FOR ADAPTATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN(1) agriculture as well as other vulnerable segments of activities andg(2) lifting the level of awareness of people involved inprimarily food production exceptprimarily food production exceptOld cross breading programs for wheat resistant on high temperature and recent rural sociology research about extension mp gyservices in Vojvodina
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
Interview done only with the employees in the Extension Service
Adaptation
Interview done only with the employees in the Extension Serviceof Vojvodina (Serbia)
13 Agricultural stations with 207 experts199 experts were interviewed60 questions with different scale of offered possibilities
AiAim:(a) Reform of extension services in Vojvodina (Serbia) in the
transition periodtransition period(b) Establishing the neediness of the farmers for knowledge based
on the opinion of agricultural experts in Vojvodina (Serbia) inon the opinion of agricultural experts in Vojvodina (Serbia) in the transition period
(c) Establishing the optimal way for the knowledge transfer to farmers
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
The main goalsas the Partner 4 we havethe following responsibilities
а) On the basis the “observed” indicators about climate change in the selected regionschange in the selected regions with an intensive agricultural production we have to suggests the measures of adaptation
b) To lead the thematic ADAGIOb) To lead the thematic ADAGIO group“Adaptation on occurrence of pests and diseases на determined by climate change”
FP6 – ADAGIO – Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
JOB THAT IS DONE – SERBIAN CREW
“Milutin Milankovic” Climate Change Center
Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009
gBelgrade
1) Work on the questionnaires using correspondingmethodology (questionnaires for gathering datamethodology (questionnaires for gathering dataabout attitude of experts and farmers)
) J b h i da) Job that is done
*) Rough draft of the questionnaires (four meetings) thatthat included whole group (meteorologists,plant protection, agronomy and fruit production rural sociology experts)agronomy and fruit production, rural sociology experts)
*) Final polishing the questionnaires for#) plant protection experts#) fruit production experts#) agronomy experts and farmers#) agronomy experts and farmers
*) Sending questionnaires on 921 addresses (experts and farmers) by regular mail that then returned to us
FP6 – ADAGIO – Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
1) Work on the questionnaires using correspondingmethodology (questionnaires for gathering datamethodology (questionnaires for gathering dataabout attitude of experts and farmers)
) J b h i d
Number of Number of Number of Number of
a) Job that is done
respodents respodents questions questionsKind Experts Farmers Experts FarmersA 21/175 48/345 24 42Agronomy 21/175 48/345 24 42Plant protection 38/150 79/100 43 49Fuit production 14/50 68/101 17 27Fuit production 14/50 68/101 17 27Total 73/375
(19.4%)195/546(36%)
Simple statistics from the questionnaire features andnumber of respondents for Vojvodina Province
FP6 – ADAGIO – Regional Meeting, Sofia, 13-14 September 2007
+0.2Classical approaches Trends in annualair temperature (C)
+0.3p ( )
(1949-1999)
+0.0
0 0
-0.3
0.0
+0.2
0.0 -0.1
-0.4 -0.2 +0 3
0 2
+0.3
-0.2
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
+37Classical approaches Trends in annualprecipitation (mm)
-62p p ( )(1949-1999)
+35
15
-7
-15
+17
+79 +26
-55 -64 +27
40
+27
-40
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
FP6 – ADAGIO – Proj. No SSPE-CT-2006-044210: Први национални скуп/ irst national meeting/ 5.9.2007., Novi Sad, Srbija
Summer maximum (a) and winter minimum (b)Summer maximum (a) and winter minimum (b)
Classical approaches FP6 – ADAGIO – Proj. No SSPE-CT-2006-044210: Први национални скуп/ First national meeting/ 5.9.2007., Novi Sad, Srbija
Summer maximum (a) and winter minimum (b) Summer maximum (a) and winter minimum (b) trend distribution in Vojvodina (1974trend distribution in Vojvodina (1974--2003)2003)
(a) Summer(a) Summer (b) Winter(b) Winter
(Lalic et al., 2004)
Vienna, 14-16 February 2007, Project Meeting
Regional climate modelling (Djurdjevic and Rajkovic, Ann. Geophy., 2009)
ANALYSIS THAT IS DONE – SERBIAN CREW
“Milutin Milankovic” Climate Change Center
Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009
gBelgrade
Plant deseases
These research was conducted under
this
DESIMINATION – SERBIAN CREW
“Milutin Milankovic” Climate Change Center
Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009
gBelgrade
Popular desimination
#) 20 interviews on Serbian and Hungarian TV statios
#) 13 articles in farmer and other journals
#) 25 lectures on national farmer and public meetings#) 25 lectures on national, farmer and public meetings
Further activities (ADAGIO after ADAGIO)
1) At least chapter in the book (summary of the thematic groupwork)
2) P i Cli Ch Cli R h ( f h l2) Paper in Climate Change or Climate Research (summary of the compeletework)
Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009
Conferences, papers and other forms of desimination#) COST 734 5th Management Commitee Meeting Impacts of Climate Change
and Variability on European Agriculture: CLIVAGRI, Larissa, Greece(March 27-28, 2008)( , )
#) Global environmental change: Challenges to science and society inSoutheastern Europe International Conference Sofia BulgariaSoutheastern Europe International Conference, Sofia, Bulgaria (19 - 21 May 2008)
#) Symposium on Climate Change and Variability Agrometeorological Monitoring#) Symposium on Climate Change and Variability-Agrometeorological Monitoring and Coping Strategies for Agriculture, Oscarsborg, Norway
(04 - 07 June 2008)
#) iEMSs 2008, International Congress on Environmental Modelling andSoftware, Barcelona, Spain: Session “Environmental Fluid Mechanics”p(07 - 10 July 2008)
#) Conferences of EMS#) Conferences of EMS
Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, 4 September 2007
Awards
Award of the EMS for the Best Paper on the Conference for thepYoung Scientist
Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, February 2008
Books
Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, February 2008
Books
Meeting with the project scientific officer Dr. Armand Beuf, Novi Sad, February 2008
Advances in environmental
modelling and measurementsmodelling and measurements
Editors: D.T. MihailovicB LalicB. Lalic
Nova Sciences Publisher, 2010Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009
EndEnd
Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Vieanna, 22-23 June 2009