Climate Changes, Displaced Persons and the Law

8/8/2019 Climate Changes, Displaced Persons and the Law

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C ore StudiesCLIM ATE CHANGES, DISP LACED PERSONS

and the LAW

Changes in global climate are not a given fact, but they are a very high risk;

Local changes in climate are occurring now and causing some migration.


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CLIMATE CHANGES, DISPLACED PERSONS and the LAW

It is inevitable that there will be some confusion regarding the international law and displaced persons, asareas experience changes in climate and that many definitions need to be agreed as to who may be entitledto support, be they termed as 'migrants' or 'refugees' and under what circumstances support is to be givenwhen areas of the globe experience varying categories of change at different times and extremes will alsovary and at different speeds.

Any law regarding displaced persons from climate changes would have to be implemented outside of all of the existing laws, as it would not be possible to change the existing laws due to the length of time requiredto reach global agreement and the existing laws, (1951 United Nations convention relating to the status of refugees and the 1967 United Nations Protocol relating to the status of refugees) took many years toconfigure and only covers "fear of persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of aparticular social group or political opinion etc" and thus makes no provision for environmental changes.However, there is often an assumption that during times of environmental disaster there are many refugeesfrom a disaster, but refugees are those that have fled over borders and are not termed 'refugee' until theyhave crossed a border on their own decision.

It is now reasonably clear that the term 'refugee' cannot apply to a displaced person from climate changes,as a refugee is a displaced person that may fear persecution and it is not likely that they would apply to aperson displaced due to climate changes. It is possible that during a period of conflict some would claimrefugee status, but the definition of refugee in this case would have to qualify through a strict adjudicationprocess and it is not likely that there would be agreement on this. There are no set criteria for adjudicatingwho is or who is not a displaced person from climate change and as the existing international law under theUnited Nations does not cover climate change migrants, the necessary protection that will be required to

cover, at least the basics.Much of the burden for providing finance, leadership and direct support will rest on the governments of themost developed nations and it will be up to the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) toensure that the decision makers have prime information of local environmental changes that may trigger theneed to ensure that those that will be displaced are given the fullest support available. There are manyfactors to be taken into consideration, keeping in mind the rights of sovereign nations, the potential forconflict in various forms, residency status of the displaced persons outside of their own borders, dwindlingnatural resources such as potable water and many other concerns, either macro or micro.

Not all of the globe is changing at the same time or to the same degree and there will be parts of the worldthat will benefit from a changing climate, but some changes have been verified whilst others are open toconjecture and there are many opinions put forward. However, as the following pages show, in worst case

scenarios, there are many facets to address and not all of these will be resolved. There are issues raisedabout sovereignty of the small island states that will be flooded and whether they will be able retain theirabsolute sovereignty in a new country or on a parcel of land set aside for this purpose.

It is very unlikely that the United Nations will be united in its quest to harness the goodwill and financialsupport required from members in order to address the overall need to find solutions, although it is acceptedthat these problems are so diverse, it is very unlikely that the United Nations will manage to discuss many of the problems that need very detailed analysis.


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There are a large number of civil conflicts throughout the world, with food conflicts becoming ever moreprominent and climate changes are likely to see these increase in developing countries and to add to these, itis likely that conflict over employment opportunities may be intertwined with the food conflicts. It has beennoted that the price of basic foods have increased in the local and international markets and with changes inlocal climates more likely, food shortages will probably increase, especially in areas where there are annualpopulation increases above normal and where both internal and international migrants add to rapidlyexpanding populations and where urban areas bear the greatest burdens and have to provide public servicesalready under stress.

However, the work load to resolve some of these problems cannot be left to the United Nations alone, asthere are other organisations that must be involved, in order to ensure that cultural identities can bepreserved and this is an important factor and this is also where the religious leaders can assist the IPCC indetermining the cultural identities that must be preserved; important amongst the few remaining indigenousgroups that must also have a say. How far will the religious definitions factor into the discussions regardingdisplaced persons from climate change, will the Islamic nations only accept other followers of Islam?

Will the strongly Catholic nations accept followers of Islam or followers of Judaism? All of these factors mustbe on the table during discussions and this is why organisations such as the Arab League of Nations, the

Association of Caribbean States, the Union of South American States must be included. Growing political andeconomic states such as the European Union will play a major role in discussions. There may also be a majorrole for the various African Unions in any discussions; as not only will the African continent provide many of the displaced persons from climate changes; with its vast land resources, Africa may also provide many of the solutions.

One of the problems that may affect the possible discussions regarding creating laws to protect those madedisplaced persons from climate changes is the present state of world economics. With many countries highlystressed economically at this time and little likelihood that these economies will be in any position to providelarge amounts of aid for many years, few governments will want to commit money or resources to thiscause.

As the following pages show, there are many variables to be considered, even when considering the primaryresponses to the problem of displaced persons due to climate changes.


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(N.B. Any references to a 'global' climate change are avoided where possible in this document as the most likely scenario is 'local' climate changes.)

DISPLACED PERSONS and their DEFINITIONS CS Refugee: The 1951 United Nations Protocol relating to the status of refugees and the 1967 United Nations RefugeeProtocol took many years to configure and implement and they only cover fear of persecution as reasonsto apply for refugee status and covers ("Fear of persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality,membership of a particular social group or political opinion etc) and thus, makes no provision forenvironmental changes that may affect someones personal status.From this, it is now reasonably clear that the term 'refugee' cannot apply to a displaced person fromclimate changes, as a 'refugee' cannot be in fear of persecution from these unless conflict in some formor other is present:Therefore, to be eligible for classification as a refugee due to conflict in a climate change situation wouldinvolve the following:

Climate Change Refugee from Conflict:Political conflict.Religious conflict.Cultural conflict? (Is there such a classification such as 'cultural' conflict?)

CS Migrant:There are many definitions of migrant and of these definitions many could be applied in terms of climatechanges and some of these are put forward for debate:Economic Migrant:Seasonal, temporary or permanent.Seasonal:Many people migrate each year on a seasonal basis to take advantage of employment opportunities;mostly in agriculture and these return 'home' after a given period of time, having completed the seasonalwork or contract.Temporary:Many people migrate to take advantage of employment opportunities and are away for one or two yearsand return 'home' after having completed a contract or when sufficient capital is gained.Permanent:Those that migrate on a permanent basis have to be divided into two categories.

Internal migrant External migrant

Internal migrant: As stated these migrate internally or within the borders of a nation to seek employment opportunity orfor other purposes and within the laws regarding climate changes these would need specialconsideration.

Most internal migrants usually migrate because of economic opportunity, either because at home' theeconomic situation has declined or because there are too many family members to support from a smallincome. The fact that most come from the rural areas is of concern because most of those that leave arethe youth, leaving an aging rural population to maintain and increase food supplies to support expandingpopulation. There is also evidence to show that in the industrial areas, migration occurs as industrygrows or declines or where natural mineral resources increase or decrease. There is worrying evidence toshow that the urban and sub-urban areas are expanding at a rate whereby the public services providedare under stress and that land, once used for agriculture is now being taken for residential purposes andthat agricultural production is declining.


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At this time there is insufficient evidence to show that number of people that are migrating voluntarily'because of local climate changes, although there is evidence that, in some areas, climates have changedsufficiently to a degree that discourages people to stay in their areas. This again, is in rural areas whereagricultural production is having to adapt to local changes; that might be due to excessive and prolongeddroughts, excessive out of (usual) season flooding or where either of the these natural events has caused soilerosion sufficient to make agricultural production unviable. It has been found that most of the migrants areunskilled, or do not have sufficient skills in order to earn an income in their newly chosen settlement area.In general, those that claim to be affected by climate changes will have to undergo strict testing in order tosatisfy the requirement to qualify for assistance from climate change support agencies and it is not sufficientto claim a decreased percentage of yield in order to qualify; there will have to be significant 'sustained'losses without the hope of an improvement in the climate in order to regain the original yield percentages.

Added to this, who is to claim that a farmer is insufficiently knowledgeable to maintain yields.Therefore it is extremely unlikely that individual cases would be acceptable and that only groups of internalmigrants would be able to make a claim for assistance due to climate changes.

External migrant: (Crosses international border/s) As stated these migrate outside the borders of a 'home' nation to seek employment opportunity or forother (usually familial) purposes and would need to meet certain criteria to qualify in law regardingclimate changes and would require an adjudication process. In a situation such as climate change anexternal migrant would have to meet stringent criteria before being accepted as a displaced person fromclimate changes and thus, would probably have been supported in this migration by a government or by

an internationally accepted organisation; thus, giving some right to claiming assistance.The qualifications required in order to receive assistance in a claim as a displaced person from climatechanges are what the various authorities have to agree and implement and this in itself raises manyissues; not least, the religious and cultural criteria and this is where many difficulties lie.

Host communities:The issue of sovereignty has been raised and this is something that must be addressed if a large numberof nations are to come together and agree to relocate displaced persons from climate changes and thissupposes that at some time, some small nations (mostly island states) will have to relocate as a nationand yet, be allowed to retain their laws, culture and customs, as a state within a state and it is probablethat areas of land to be made available for these displaced nations are agreed and this must beundertaken soonest.Integrating climate change migrants into existing communities will prove to be exceptionally hard to do,as there is immediate competition for many things, including public services (potable water, health,education, etc), housing, land, employment and basic resources and many may require to attendvocational and language training in order to be able to take part in the day-to-day activities in their newhost communities.Many communities are very tribal in nature, not tolerating newcomers in general and where it has beenseen that local governments and development/relief organisations have targeted resources atnewcomers, jealousies quickly arise and these in turn can lead to conflict; precisely the opposite of thatrequired in order to resettle migrants. it therefore may be necessary to resettle climate change migrantsin new towns, although this brings with it its own problems; allowing closed societies and this isagainst the general idea in relocating displaced persons. With this also comes the variety of dialects,religions and sub-religions that abound and adding difficulties for those that will have to manage thepermanent or temporary relocation of displaced persons and this is where there must be a role for thevarious groups that represent collectives of individual nations; such as the Arab League, the various

African groups, Caribbean groups, Asian groups, European groups and many others. All will representvarious cultures and religions and although all will be willing to take part (officially) all will wish to beselective of those that they will help to relocate.Who will manage those that have been relocated into other nations? Will the United Nations demandrights of access into a sovereign country or will the host nation take total responsibility for its newcitizens?

As can be seen, there are now many variables in the equation and it is unlikely that all can beaccommodated and thus, compromises will have to be made in order to achieve any kind of agreementsin order to address the needs of those that have become displaced by the inability to maintain a lifestylein their home areas because of the altered climate.


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Some may plausibly argue that with sufficient forewarning and proactive international support, thatindividual governments should take full responsibility for their response to climate changes withinboundaries and although this has great merit, it leaves out those island nations that may be completelylost due to sea level rises.Many may argue against the need for displaced persons from climate changes needing to crossinternational borders and this also has some merit, especially where these become economic migrantsfrom climate changes that have decided to migrate on their volition and without coercion. If for example,the international boundaries of the African continent are unable to stop migrants crossing at will, peoplewill naturally migrate to areas where they believe that they may be able to sustain a particular lifestyleand although the African continent is still quietly tribal, few will be deterred from migrating by this.

Changes in global climate are not a given fact, but they are a high risk.

One of the conundrums for international experts on climate change is that none are sure about what willhappen and where it will happen; although some areas of the globe are at higher risk than others. Somewill argue that the human race alone is responsible for these climate changes and although the humanrace has definitely added to these risks, historical climate data does not support that the human racealone is responsible. It is reasonably certain that not all is doom and gloom as some areas of the worldwill benefit from a global warming and in these areas a higher percentage of food production may bebeneficial.

Many cultures in general are rather fatalistic and will say that they will deal with the problems of life if and when they occur and see no point in taking proactive action for something that might only happenin another generation or century and although the experts are reasonably sure in themselves, they havean extremely hard time in convincing the doubters. Many of the people in these cultures will say thatthey have a hard time surviving at this time and have little interest and no energy to address possible environmental problems of the future and this is where the existing education systems may be able tohelp change attitudes, or at the least, make the future generations aware of potential problems and thatby changing practices now, these changes may not occur or will occur to a lesser degree or later than ispresently predicted.

As stated by many, there are some countries at greater risk from climate changes than others and manycite Bangladesh as being one of these. Here is a nation where the majority of the terrain is only a fewmetres above sea level and which, if predictions are correct, will lose a considerable amount of land to

the sea. In an overcrowded nation, this is a problem and internal migration will greatly exacerbate thepopulation density in the inland areas and may well have an effect on the nations ability to providesufficient basic food for its people and this is a worrying factor. Not only will land be lost to the sea butinland waterways may be polluted by salt, further reducing the ability of producing the main basic crop of rice and although agricultural scientists are attempting to produce a salt tolerant rice, this may not fullyanswer the needs. Some have stated that the international community should proactively assistBangladesh to construct sea defences and then leave the successive governments of Bangladesh to dealwith the remaining problems themselves.

One important factor about rice is that although upland varieties of rice are being further developed, thevast majority of rice is produced on the flat delta areas and many of these are at, or a little above sealevel. In nations where rice is not only a food crop, but a very important cultural crop, the developmentof rice varieties is important. Expecting whole communities to change their basic food preferences may

not be physically possible and probably definitely not culturally possible as the cultural aspect is a veryimportant factor that many overlook. Only the prospect of starvation may encourage people to adoptother basic foods.

Likewise there are countries in south-east Asia that are, to some degree, reliant on China for economicaldevelopment and with some changes in climate already apparent, the production of important food cropsis at risk. Again, rice is not heat tolerant and for every one degree increase in mean night temperature,some have stated that production falls by ten percent (10%) or more and in nations that already have toimport rice to maintain the nations health, producing less on home soil effects trade balances. Likewiserapid temperature rises of the seas surrounding many of the island states has already had an effect onnatural fish stocks and in areas where the coral reefs are important fish breeding grounds, higher seatemperatures have caused sterility of these reefs, especially during the times of El Nino.


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Few would believe that that greater number of natural disasters; flooding and earthquakes in Pakistan,flooding and earthquakes in China, earthquakes in Haiti, tsunamis, etc and many other environmentalcalamities are caused by climate changes and yet, there may be some evidence to show that localclimate changes and human intervention in the environment have some relationship to these. There isinsufficient scientific data to directly link the occurrences with climate changes, but many are nowstarting to question the cause of these events.

Many forget that the Earth itself is a living organism and it changes over the millenniums; getting colder,getting hotter, more explosive as continental plates grind against each other and many other natural occurrences and it is impossible for scientists to include these in climate predictions as the eventsthemselves are not predictable. Therefore climate scientists have to work on a best guess scenario andthis is what the international organisations have to accept and possibly also why so many people appearto be sceptical about global climate change, although they should accept that in some areas of theglobe climates have changes and will continue to do so.

There is no doubt that the international organisations, the various bodies that represent regional groupsof nations, the IMF and others should discuss and agree some basic rules so that the early cases can beaddressed. Some nations are very concerned about the security issues relative to climate changes andthe potential for conflict is high, unless proactive means are taken to answer what if scenarios.

Robert J Walker Core Studies (September 2010) [email protected]


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Core Studies

Climate ChangeDisplaced persons:

Migrants:Refugees:

Issues to be resolved:C S Climate changes will cause conflict:-

What form will these conflicts take? What is it that determines when a climate change migrant has to leave a home area?

What level of conflict will cause people to make the decision to migrate? What if a person is forced by government to leave an area due to changes in climate?

What legal rights will the enforced displaced persons have? C S Some climate change migrants migrate because of conflict:-

What are the causes of these conflicts? Will there be control measures put in place to reduce outbreaks of conflict?

C S Is a 'displaced person' from climate change a refugee or migrant?C S Is a 'refugee' from climate change:-

Only from conflict within a climate change situation? From natural disaster from climate changes?

A person or group of people 'officially' forced to leave an area C S What will happen if a sovereign island state becomes overrun from a rise in sea level?

Will it be allocated land for another sovereign state? Will it be able to retain its sovereignty? Will it have to be absorbed into another sovereign state?

C S What is it that 'triggers' the final decision to migrate in a changed climate situation?s t econom cs ase

Is it conflict based?

Is it resources based? C S What areas will most of the migrants / refugees come from?

Rural areas? (Most likely to be the largest source of migrants) Coastal areas? Upland areas? (Most likely to be a large source of migrants)

Arid areas? C S Where will the majority of the migrants / refugees resettle?

Urban and sub-urban areas? (Most likely) Industrial areas? Other rural areas? Other coastal areas?

Climate Change, Displaced Persons and the Law


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Core Studies

Climate ChangeDisplaced persons:Migrants:Refugees:

Legal Definitions Required:( Relative to Climate Changes )

C S What is the legal definition of a displaced person from climate changes?Is it a refugee? (A refugee is a displaced person that may fear persecution) Is it a migrant?

Does an 'internal' migrant qualify?How do you identify an internal migrant from climate change? What is the legal status of an 'internal migrant' from climate changes?

C S What therefore is the legal definition of a refugee?Is there such a person as a 'climate change refugee'? (from conflict or natural disaster?)

C S What is the legal definition of an 'internal' migrant?C S What is the legal definition of an 'external' migrant?C S Where enforced displacement is necessary:

What will be the 'legal' status of internally displaced persons? What will be the 'legal' status of externally displaced persons? Who will decide the 'legal' status of displaced persons?

C S Will the United Nations have dominance in determining the legal status of displaced persons?Has the United Nations the capability to rule on the legal status of displaced persons? Has the United Nations the legal right to rule on the legal status of displaced persons?

C S Will the United Nations protect indigenous groups forced to relocate?C S ' '

POINTS

C S W at wi e t e resi ency status o isp ace persons rom c imate c anges?Temporary residency?

Full residency? C S Failing to address the needs of displaced persons from climate change, may this cause

greater instability and more security problems?Host communities antagonism against migrants? Competition for resources? (food, potable water etc) Competition for employment? (skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled) Competition for services provided by government? (health, education etc) Religious or political conflict? Culture conflict? Stress on peace keeping forces?



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Core Studies


C S What triggers cause someone to become a migrant or refugee from climate change?Crop failures:

Constant drought Constant flooding Delta soil salination from rising sea levels Soil born crop pests and diseases Soil degradation (leaching of prime mineral elements)

Conflicts:Potable and irrigation water disputes Land disputes Greedy landlords Large numbers of migrants

Natural disasters:Forest fires Landslides Land subsidence Earthquake Desertification Tsunami

Vegetative food production:Lack of sustainability High cost of inputs Competition from bio-fuel crops

Plants intolerant of rising air and soil temperatures Salination of prime delta soil from sea level rise

Other food production:Lack of cereals for animal production Lack of or delayed development of crop species Reduced level of grazing Water shortages Depleted marine fish stocks Depleted groundwater levels for aquaculture

General:Basic food shortages

High cost of basic foods Potable water shortages High cost of potable water Lack of sustainable employment opportunity



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Core Studies


Corruption wit hin the governments and international organisations responding tothe need of displaced persons due to local climate changes:

C S Within the need to respond to non-emergency situations in climate changes, there isalso a need to ensure that corrupt practices are reduced to a minimum and that allparticipating national governments are aware of these needs and have the legalframework to address these needs.

For 'internal' migrants? For 'external' migrants? For 'indigenous groups'?

C S There may also be a need to determine whether or not a non-emergency situation isdue to climate changes or other causes.

C S There are many that migrate across borders for seasonal work and there are somethat migrate internally following traditional agricultural seasons. Will these be affectedby international agreements on displaced persons from climate changes?

C S

e n ons ow many o ese app y o sp ace persons rom c ma e c anges Economic migrant:

Seasonal migrant (Does not apply) Industrial migrant (Does not apply) Temporary migrant (Does not apply) Permanent migrant (Does not apply)

Conflict migrant: From 'international' conflict (Cross border conflict migrant; thus refugee) From 'internal' conflict From 'climate change' conflict (*)

((*) define climate change conflict)Religious conflict:

From 'internal' religious conflict (internal conflict migrant; no refugee status) From 'external' religious conflict

(Cross border conflict migrant; thus refugee) Political conflict: Opposing political views on the reaction to climate changes

Cultural conflict: Culturally unable to accept regulations made to combat climate changes



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Core Studies


Legal Definitions RequiredFor Displaced Persons Relative to Climat e Changes:

C S There is a need to determine strict parameters on who would qualify for legal rightsto migrate directly due to local climate changes.

C S Therefore a 'base map' of the local environments is required.C S The IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) would have to undertake this

together with other international organisations such as the FAO.C S Therefore, baseline criteria must be established and agreed.

The displaced persons:1 The trigger point at which a migrant decides to leave a home area.2 Is this decision based on adverse effects of climate change that precludes staying?3 Is this a decision enforced by government or determined by personal decision?4 Are the climate changes 'new' or 'established'?5 Is 'conflict' involved in the decision to relocate?6 What constitutes climate change 'conflict'?7 Is 'natural disaster' involved in the decision to relocate?8 Is 'food production' at risk in the area where migrants are leaving from?9 Are 'natural water reserves' at risk in the area where migrants are leaving from?

10 Are 'indigenous groups' at risk from incoming migrants?' '

OPTIONS

11 Are in igenous groups at ris rom eing orce to re ocate?

Possible variables in the adjudication process: A ReligionB TribeC RaceD CultureE Lifestyle ( Coastal, Upland, Delta, Island, etc )F Sovereignty statusG Environment

(determining the amount of change needed to make migration necessary) H Training requirementI Clarification of the term 'conflict'J Determination of the term 'climate change conflict'

(for determining migrant or refugee status) K



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Core Studies


Migrants:Refugees:

Displaced Persons:C S Baseline criteria for acceptance as displaced persons legally entitled to support:

Due to climate changes :1 Drought lasting more than ( 3) years.2 Regular out of season flooding.3 Seasonal temperatures change ( +/- ) by more than 2 degrees Celsius since 1980 .4 Severe soil erosion. (by wind and rain)5 Severe land slides.6 Rapid desertification.7 Severe 'natural' deforestation.8 Severely lowered water table.9 Potable water resources polluted by seawater.

10 Irrigation water resources polluted by seawater.11 Severe salination of food producing delta areas. (from rising sea levels )12 Marine fish stocks depleted to an unsustainable state. (warmer seawater [+2C o])

(Or fish stocks depleted by 90% or more)13 Lakes and rivers drying up. (Less than 10% remaining)14 Indigenous groups' environments being destroyed.15 Islands inundated with seawater.16 Altered ecosystems. (To be defined) 17 River systems heavily polluted by siltation.

Criteria for Debate

18 Percentage of environmental change to acquire migrant status. ( 50% plus )19 Seawater temperature rise at five metres below surface ( +2 oC)

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Climate Changes, Displaced Persons and the Law

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