Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning to in Prairie Forests
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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning to in Prairie Forests
Mark Johnston and Elaine QualtiereSaskatchewan Research Council
March 15 2011
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General areas of vulnerability• Changes in species distributions
• Fire activity
• area burned
• frequency and intensity
• Insect outbreaks
• endemic species (e.g. SBW, FTC)
• exotics (e.g. EAB, MPB)
• Productivity
• Operations
• season of frozen ground
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CFS Plant Hardiness Databasehttp://planthardiness.gc.ca/ph_futurehabitat.pl?lang=en
Based on Climatic Suitability
Jack Pine: currently suitable climate(dots indicate observed occurrence)
Jack Pine: suitability 2050s HADCM3
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Area Burned for Western Canada (BC to MB)Source: Balshi et al., Global Change Biology 15: 578–600, 2009
By 2050: 2X increase
By 2100: 3-5X increase
Now
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Number of Fires
Lightning-caused 2030 Lightning-caused 2090
Source: Wotton et al. 2010 International Journal of Wildland Fire 19: 253–271
- Climate data used to calculate FWI
- Statistical relationship between FWI and fire activity
- Future data from CGCM1
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HFI map for Duck Mountains, prepared for LP’s Forest Management Plan, 2006
• Analysis using CFS Spatial Fire Management System (new version soon!)
• Climate data from CRCM
• Fuel types re-classified from LP forest inventory
• Pink and red indicate fuel types where fire will be difficult to suppress
• Did similar analysis for Mistik FMA in NW SK
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Suppression difficult
Suppression impossible
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• Endemic species outbreaks likely to increase but details are poorly understood
• Exotics also likely to increase but impacts greater because no resistance
• New MPB scenarios seem to be leaning toward poor winter survival, the apocalypse may be avoided!
Insects
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Adaptive Seasonality Cold Survival
MPB“…probability of range expansion… is low to moderate”
Bentz et al., BioScience 2010, 60:602-612
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smart science solutions™Productivity: Fort a la Corne Forest, SK
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Ecosystem Model: PnETClimate Model: CRCM V 3.6D = 2001-2002 drought scenario
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Swift Current
Estevan
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Source: Lempriere et al., The Importance of Forest Sector Adaptation to Climate Change, CFS Information Report NOR-X-416, 2008
Values of Hogg’s Climate Moisture Index based on CGCM2-A2
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smart science solutions™From Hogg & Bernier 2005. The Forestry Chronicle 81: 675-682
Projected increase in forested areas affected by drought stress under climate change
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Shorter operating season on frozen ground
What the…?
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#$%*&@!
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CRCM, Duck Mountains
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Mistik FMAData from CRCM V 3.6
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• Need to examine organization’s adaptive capacity:
– Awareness – Technology availability– Resources– Institutions– Human capital– Social capital– Risk management– Information management
Human Dimension
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• Policy assessment – does current policy value
– Innovation
– Flexibility
– Looking forward
• Does policy welcome new thinking from outside, e.g. industry, producers?
• Can policy be changed easily when required?
Human Dimension
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• Based on expert opinion and what has worked in the past
• Screen according to future scenarios
• Prioritize using e.g. CCFM Criteria and Indicators or other benchmarks for SFM
Adaptation Options
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LANDIS-II: Forest Landscape Simulator
FORESTED LANDSCAPE
WINDTHROW
FIRE
HARVESTING
INSECTS / DISEASE
SPATIALLY INTERACTIVE PROCESSES
DISPERSALTREE / SHRUB
ESTABLISHMENT
MORTALITY
NON-SPATIAL COMMUNITYPROCESSES
GROWTH
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LANDIS-II Philosophy: Homogeneity
LANDIS assumes homogeneity at multiple scales:
Sites = single cells
Ecoregions = 1 or more cells, typically defined by climate and soils. Need not be contiguous.
LandscapeSites
Ecoregions
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Soil Carbon & Nitrogen
WindHarvest
Fire
Cohort Biomass
Insects
Spatially Interactive Landscape
LANDIS-II Philosophy: Spatially Dynamic
Disturbances overlap in space
and time.
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LANDIS-IISuccession Extensions
Global Circulation
Model LANDIS-IIForest
Successionand Disturbance
ANPPGrowth Model
PEST
Regen-erationModel
User Choice
We will use PnET
Probability of Establishment
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Case Studies• Island Forests in SK
– Focus on interacting sources of vulnerability on sensitive landscapes
– Fire, insects, drought, productivity
• Alberta Case Study
– Lit review to support provincial vulnerability assessment
– Possibility of more work next year
• Manitoba Case Study
– Tree ring analysis to link tree growth and climate variables (with University of Winnipeg)