Climate change updated Corinne Le Quéré Professor of Climate Change Science and Policy University...
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Transcript of Climate change updated Corinne Le Quéré Professor of Climate Change Science and Policy University...
climate change updated
Corinne Le QuéréProfessor of Climate Change Science and Policy
University of East Anglia
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/landstations/Brohan et al. J. Geophys Res. (2006)
temperature measurements on land
Photo: Xiaojun Yuan LDEO.columbia.edu
Kent et al. (2010) Wires of Climate Change
earthobservatory.nasa.gov
temperature measurements in the sea
warming of global air temperature
data source: NASA-GISS, reference period 1951-1980
+0.4
-0.4
1900 1950 2000
tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y (°
C)
Time (y)
melting of glaciers and ice caps
Qori Kalis, Peru
1978, 2002
Kilimanjaro
1993, 2000
melting of glaciers and ice caps
Trift, Suisse
1948, 2002, 2006
melting of glaciers and ice caps
data source: Dyurgerov and Meier 2005, figure from Rober A. Rohde for the Global Warming Art project
Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009
melting of the Arctic sea ice
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
adapted from IPCC 2007, data from NASA GISS, NSIDC, Church and White, Colorado University
sea level
Arctic Sept ice extent
temperature
1900 2000
Time (y)
But is it caused by human activities?
yes!
1. we understand the processes
2. global warming has fingerprints
John Tyndall’s laboratory setup 1859
IPCC 2007 Fig 9.5
Fingerprints for climate change: surface warming
volcanoes & sun only
observed
IPCC 2007 Fig 9.5
greenhouse gases,
volcanoes & sun
Fingerprints for climate change: surface warming
observed
volcanoes & sun only
But is it caused by human activities?
yes!
1. we understand the processes
2. global warming has fingerprints
3. it is above the background natural variability (caveat)
Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009, from Mann et al. 2008
But is it caused by human activities?
yes!
1. we understand the processes
2. global warming has fingerprints
3. it is above the background natural variability (caveat)
4. there are no other reasonable explanations
If it looks like a dog, and it barks like a dog, it is a dog.
my best guess
(~2°C)
(~2.5°C)
(~3°C)
(~4.5°C)
today
So what’s next?
year of my retirement
year of your retirement
(~2°C)
(~2.5°C)
(~3°C)
(~4.5°C)
today
So what’s next?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/mapping-climate-impacts
melting of the ice
(and other unknowns)
time (y)
(bill
ion)
wor
ld p
opul
atio
n
projections: Lutz et al. IIASA 2007
*
time (y)
(bill
ion)
wor
ld p
opul
atio
n
projections: Lutz et al. IIASA 2007
*
http://www.art247.com/Tshirt/15568http://www.virtual-london.com/oxford-circus-and-piccadilly-circus
http://theedwardians.blogspot.co.uk/2011/05/view-down-oxford-street-london-c1890.html
Oxford Street, London
1890 1910
19502012