Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 501)
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Transcript of Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 501)
Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 501)
Richard B. Rood734-647-3530
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu./people/rbrood
Winter 2008February 21, 2008
Class News
• A ctools site for all– AOSS 480 001 W08
• This is the official repository for lectures• Email [email protected]
• Class Web Site and Wiki
–Climate Change: The Move to Action
–Winter 2008 Term
Readings on Local Servers
• Assigned– Eakin and Lemos: Building Adaptive Capacity
in Latin America (Corrected link from previous lecture)
• Of Interest– Antilla: Climate Skeptics and Press Coverage
Lectures coming up
• http://www.snre.umich.edu/events
Energy and the Environment: The New Financial Game
The Erb Speaker Series presents Peter Fusaro, of Global Change Associates: "Energy and the Environment: The New Financial Game."
Refreshments will be served.
Date and Time: Wednesday, March 5, 2008 - 5:00pm to 6:30pm Location: Wyly 0750, 724 E. University, Ann Arbor, Michigan
PROJECTS
• Project teams and subjects
• An outline of project “form”
GOALS
• To provide a knowledge-based analysis of a complex problem.
• Purpose of the analysis– Inform an agency head, government official, a
corporate manager so that a decision can be made.
– Set the foundation for a research program, an initiative, a business plan.
An interesting book for thinking about projects:(Example of process, deconstruction, …)
Climate Change: Debating America’s Policy OptionsDavid Victor (2004)Council on Foreign Relations, New York, NY166 pages.
Previous projects
New Orleans and Sea Level Rise New Orleans and post-Katrina Public Health Great Lake Fisheries and Climate Change Carbon Taxes and Carbon Markets Role of World Trade Organization in Carbon Policy Texas Coal Power Plants: CO2 and Public Health Costs
Who are we?
• Byers, Brian ( byersbh ) AOSS 480 001 W08
• Carey, Erin ( careyeb ) NRE 501 076 W08• Ervin, Joan ( ervinj ) AOSS 480 001 W08 • Felt, Justin ( feltju ) NRE 501 076 W08 • Fishman, Daniel ( dbfish ) NRE 501 076
W08 • Horton, Daniel ( danethan ) AOSS 480
001 W08• Johns, Owen ( orjohns ) NRE 501 076
W08 • Johnson, Jaclyn ( jackiejo ) NRE 501 076
W08 • Knudson, Karla ( knudsonk ) AOSS 480
001 W08 • Kosmyna, Eric ( ekoz ) AOSS 480 001
W08 • Lorenz, Susan ( selorenz ) NRE 501 076
W08
• Mack, Charlotte ( charmack ) NRE 501 076 W08
• Oaida, Catalina ( oaidac ) AOSS 480 001 W08
• Rabinsky, Mark ( rabinsky ) NRE 501 076 W08
• Reed, David ( dereed ) AOSS 480 001 W08
• Reed, Kevin ( kareed ) AOSS 480 001 W08, AOSS 605 002 W08 3
• Schlichting, Eric ( eschlich ) AOSS 480 001 W08
• Tawfik, Ahmed ( abtawfik ) AOSS 480 001 W08, AOSS 605 002 W08 3,
• Thoumi, Gabriel ( thoumi ) NRE 501 076 W08
• Ullrich, Paul ( paullric ) AOSS 605 002 W08 3
• Whitehead, Jared ( jaredwh ) AOSS 605 002 W08 3
• Wurtzel, Jennifer ( jbwurtz ) AOSS 480 001 W08
Project 1
• Hybrid Bus, City-scale initiatives on energy and climate change.
• eric
• eric
• brian
Project 2
• Safeway (corporate) response to California climate intiatives
• Mark
• Susan
• Jen
Project 3
• Navajo Power Plants. Energy, economic development, environmental impact
• Jackie
• Charlotte
• Erin
Project 4
• Carbon and energy. Integrating carbon into the energy institute
• Kevin
• Gabriel
• Joan
Project 5
• Iron fertilization as a way to offset carbon
• Daniel
• Daniel
• Justin
• Carla
A Management Idea
This axis is ability to target cost, quality, time
The first and largest
improvements come from a
plan, an approach to the problem, and identifying mistakes early
Deconstructing how to think about projects.
2) Analysis:
How credible is the information? What is the integrity of the reporting? How complete is the picture? Is there derived knowledge?
3) Does it matter?
Impact. Consequences.
RelationsWhy?
4) What to do?Consequences?
Options?
1) Describe:
What is in the picture? What is known? What is not known?
Projects
• I want you to be aware of what is knowledge and what is advocacy.– If you advocate, I want the advocacy clearly
separated from what is known.– If you are pushing what you believe, I want
you to be fully conscious of that.
Approaching Complex Problems
• What are pieces of the problem?– Brain storming– Mind maps
• Write down all of the things that you can think of associated with the problem
• At this stage do not try to define the relationship between the pieces of the problem.
Consider heat waves and human health
HOT WEATHER
ELDERLY
URBAN HEAT ISLAND
AUGUST FOOTBALL PRACTICE
EXTREME HUMIDITY
EXTREME DRYNESS
HEART DISEASE
EMERGENCY ROOM
PARAMEDICS
1995
2003
MEXICAN BORDER
CHILDREN ON PLAYGROUND
HEAT STRESS INDEX
COOLING CENTERS
GREEN ROOFS
CLIMATE CHANGEMARTHA AND THE VANDELLAS
LINDA RONSTADT
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURE
FLAWS IN CURRENT SYSTEM
From the pieces of the problem
• Look for organizing notions and concepts. A way to group things.– Function– Discipline, like climate, public health, etc.– Related behavior
• The organization is not unique– A piece, like high heat, is likely a member of more
than one group: physical climate, health threat, air quality, electrical demand
• Avoid trying to make unique assignments of the pieces to groups.
Draw your first picture of elements of the problem
ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and
FORECASTS
HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL
PRODUCTS(e.g heat index)
HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL
INFORMATION
COMMUNICATIONS of PRODUCTS ACTIONS BASED
ON PRODUCTS and
COMMUNICATIONS Research and Validation
Policy
Think about the organization of the problem as a whole.
• What are you trying to achieve?– In a complex problem all of the pieces can be
brought together towards several possible conclusions.
• What you are trying to achieve helps to define relationships between the pieces. It helps to set priorities
Heat Wave System: Basic elementsRethink your first picture. Start to separate your groups into roles.
ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and
FORECASTS
HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL
PRODUCTS(e.g heat index)
HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL
INFORMATION
COMMUNICATIONS of PRODUCTS
ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS
and COMMUNICATIONS
Heat Wave System: Basic elements and values
ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and
FORECASTS
HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL
PRODUCTS(e.g heat index)
HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL
INFORMATION
COMMUNICATION of PRODUCTS
ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS
and COMMUNICATION R
esea
rch
and
Val
idat
ion
Pol
icy
Make that inventory of
• What is known?
• What is not known?
• What do you believe?
• What do you WANT to believe?
• Where do you need more knowledge?
How do things flow through the system?
ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and
FORECASTS
HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL
PRODUCTS(e.g heat index)
HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL
INFORMATION
COMMUNICATION of PRODUCTS
ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS
and COMMUNICATION R
esea
rch
and
Val
idat
ion
Pol
icy
How do you check? How does the system inform itself?
ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and
FORECASTS
HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL
PRODUCTS(e.g heat index)
HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL
INFORMATION
COMMUNICATION of PRODUCTS
ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS
and COMMUNICATION R
esea
rch
and
Val
idat
ion
Pol
icy
Enough
Three basic types of information
EnvironmentalInformation
PopulationInformation
GeographicalInformation
E1
E2
E3
E4
En G1
G2
G3
G4
Gn P1
P2
P3
P4
Pn
EW CS VP1 VP2
Projects: Goals and Context
• In school students often learn to work independently, in their field, but in jobs people are often thrown into teams– You are suddenly the “expert.”
• Goals– How to define a tractable problem // reduce it to something you can do
• Drawing a picture– How to separate the essence of a problem from the details– What do we know, what do we believe, what are we attached to?– What do the other participants really need – not what you think they
need.– Check, How to Check – Communication
• Complexity, sophistication, audience, context, naivety, dumbing down• How to explain what you are doing.
– Balance, optimization
Projects
• Bigger goals ...– How do we move this problem beyond polarized
positions on details.• Move it from climate-policy, climate-business, climate-public
health, climate-agriculture, climate-ecosystems, climate-...(interest advocacy groups)
• to climate-business-policy-public health - ecosystems
– How do we bring several communities together for the development of foundational solutions or at least strategies that make sense.
– Systems, systems, systems
Projects
• The point --- There is a complex problem, and there are a many different communities invested in how the problem is addressed. There is a relationship with climate change. You want to make a knowledge-based evaluation of the problem and present an approach or a set of possible approaches to address the problem. (Want you to be very aware of “advocacy” in your thinking.)
Projects
• Think of project in the following ways:– You work as a congressional staffer or an
agency staffer. You are asked to analyze whether or not we should drill for oil on the north slope of Alaska. You are required to consider climate change in the analysis. You are to make a team of experts from your staff. Provide a set of knowledge-based options for your congresswoman.
Projects
• or think of project this way:– You are a small company of 3-5 people,
working as a startup providing climate expertise. A major paper company calls and wants to know how to think about it’s timber reserves in the presence of possible climate change policy.
Projects
• or maybe this way:– You work for a credit card company which for
every purchase you make, they estimate the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere and buy a carbon credit to neutralize the emission. You are asked to quantify and validate that the program is good for the environment.
Projects
• or even this way:– You are in the Michigan state government,
and Michigan is going to be the energy state. Biofuels, wind energy, and hydroelectric are part of the policy. Analyze the relationship of this energy policy to climate change.