Climate change strategy with preliminary identi cation of ...€¦ · Adaptation measures The key...

Climate change strategy with preliminaryidentification of possible adaptation measures3rd Consultation workshop on the Pilot project on Climate Changeadaptation: Building the link between the Flood Risk Managementplanning and Climate Change assessment in the Sava River Basin

Roko Andricevic

Sveuciliste u SplituFakultet gradevinarstva, arhitekture i geodezije

5. lipnja 2013.

Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 1 / 19

Climate change impacts and adaptation measures

Climate change is underway - evidence of climate change fromobservations

Extreme events will occur in new locations with increase of frequencyand/or intensity of extreme events

The past may not be a good guide to the future

Hot summer 2003 was 1 in 500 year event and by 2040 due to therising temperatures this is expected to be 1 in 10 year event!


Decision-making under uncertainty

Undertaking climate variability and risk assessment aims to determine thesensitivity of project (e.g., FRMP) options to relevant climate relatedhazards, identify exposure and identify key risks

Primary purpose of climate change vulnerability and risk assessment isto inform adaptation planning

Uncertainty in climate projections - uncertainty in climate variables,future society, scale of future emissions, land use and scientificknowledge on climate system interactions

The challenge of uncertainty within FRMP


Decision-making under uncertainty

Downscaling climate projections to catchment scale (e.g., SRB)

should not be seen as increasing confidence in data

problem of wrong interpretation

irreducible uncertainty in assessing potential future impacts

11Wilby and Dessai, 2010Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 4 / 19

Dealing with uncertainty

Propagation of uncertainty through modeling process

Uncertainty in future simulated monthly flow regimes derived from six climate

scenarios and four hydrological models for the river Boyne in Ireland for three

time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2070s) using Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty

Estimation (GLUE) method 2

2Hall and Murphy, 2012Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 5 / 19

Considering adaptation measures

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Definition

Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climaticstimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Definition

Actions taken to help communities and ecosystems cope with changing climateconditions, such as the construction of flood walls to protect property fromstronger storms and heavier precipitation, or the planting of agricultural crops andtrees more suited to warmer temperatures and drier soil conditions


Adaptation measures

The key objective, in the face of uncertainty, is to define andimplement design changes (adaptation measures) which bothprovide a benefit to current climate conditions as well as resilienceto potential future climate change

Adaptation options which reduce vulnerability to past and presentclimate variability

Modifications to existing plans and designs

Adaptive management vs. flexible management

Robust adaptation

Adaptation measure that result in benefits, which exceed the costsDynamic measures to allow changes or to withdraw the adaptationstrategy as new climate change information evolveRobustness to uncertaintyStrategies that can reduce climate change vulnerability by adding extrasafety margins at low costs


Suggested Implementation Steps for FRMP

1. Vulnerability Analysis

Climate sensitivity analysis

Evaluate exposure to climate hazards

2. Hazard assessment maps

3. Risk assessment maps

4. Identification of adaptation options

5. Integration of adaptation action plan with measures into the FRMP


1. Vulnerability Analysis

Having sensitivity to a particular climate variable or hazard analyzed andintegrated into GIS with exposure data, the vulnerability is calculated asfollows:

V = S x E

where, S is degree of sensitivity that asset has (e.g., selected criteria likepopulation density, economic activity, land use etc.) and E is exposure tobaseline climate conditions with a degree of uncertainty (uncertainty bands).Therefore, the vulnerability could be classified as:

high exposure - high frequency events(Q5,Q10,...)medium exposure - medium frequency events(Q50,Q100,...)low exposure - rare flood events(Q500,Q1000,...)no exposure - areas not affected by flooding(e.g., mountain peaks, etc.)


1. Vulnerability example - 2013 flooding event

sensitivity to populationsensitivity to economicactivitiessensitivity to infrastructuresensitivity to land use


2. Hazard assessment mapping

Estimation of hazard defines an impact caused by the flooding waterexpressed by water level and velocity

3

3Bureau of Reclamation, 1988Roko Andricevic (FGAG) 3rd Consultation workshop ZG 5-6.06.2013 lipanj 2013 11 / 19

Hazard example

Estimation of hazard by the flooding water expressed by water level andvelocity

Why to use water level and watervelocity...


3. Risk assessment mapping

According to WFD and EFD the risk is suggested to be defined as:

Risk = f (hazard , vulnerability)


3. When hazard and vulnerability result in structuraldamage

Risk = f (hazard , vulnerability)


4. Identification of adaptation options

Project

FRMP

Climate Hazard

- floodingevent

- increase offrequencyand intensity

- rising ofgroundwater

- increasedprecipitation

Vulnerability

- populationdensity

- economicactivity

- specialstructures

- protectedareas

- culturalheritage

Impacts

- damages topopulation

- agriculturalareas

- soil erosion

- water quality

Adaptation

- Retention anddiversion of water

- Dam,embankment,barrage

- Storage water forirrigation

- Upgradinginfrastructure

- Spatial planning

- Greening ofurban areas

- Environmentalmanagement


5. Adaptation action plan with the measures -Building adaptive capacity

Research and analysis

- Aimed to reduce uncertainties prior to costly risk management measures

- Better understand climate related factors

- Develop higher resolution data on future climate variability

- develop cost-benefit analysis for risk management measures under uncertainty

Data collection and monitoring

- Monitor impacts of climate related factors on existing performance from remotesensing to in-situ data

- Gain access to the new developments in climate change science (e.g., GEMS)

Changing standards and codes

- Incorporate climate-resilience into countries procurement practice

- Include climate-related risk and management in Environmental ImpactAssessment Studies

- Perform Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment within spatial planningdocuments


5. Adaptation action plan with the measures -Delivering adaptation actions

Awareness raising

- Undertake training and capacity building programmes

- Organize workshops and public forums on climate change

Spreading of risk

- Diversification of asset types and technologies for new development

- Diversify locations of new developments

- Use other financial options like Alternate Risk Transfer Mechanism including riskbonds and swap options

Aviod negative impacts

- Avoid locations where risks will be unmanageable in spatial documents

- Require climate-resilient design standards in new developments

- Implement changes to management and operating rules for existing projects

- Implement engineering and technical solutions against climate change forexisting developments

- Built climate-related risks into contingency and disaster plans for new projects

- Identify and develop new projects that are favored by future climate conditions


References

EUROPEAN COMMISSION, DG Climate Action (2013)

Non-paper Guidelines for Project Managers: Making vulnerable investments climateresilient

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/docs

Wilby and Dessai (2010)

Robust adaptation to climate change Non-paper Guidelines for Project Managers:Making vulnerable investments climate resilient

Royal Meteorological Society

Hall and Murphy (2012)

In: Water Supply Systems, Distribution and Environmental Effects

Nova Science Publishers, Inc.


Thank you for your attention


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