Climate Change Science: Climate Change Science: What we know today and What we know today and

future impactsfuture impacts

Dr. Roberta JohnsonUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric

ResearchEducation and Outreach

Overview

• Why climate change science in the classroom?

• Climate versus Weather

• Climate Models• Climate Change

Observations• IPCC 4th Assessment

Summary for Policy Makers

• Future Impacts

Annual layers of ice, Quelccaya Ice Cap, PeruCourtesy of Lonnie Thompson

Why Focus on Climate Change?

• Societal Relevance• National Science Education

Standards (NRC, 1996)• Interdisciplinary content

spans broad spectrum of the geosciences

• Opportunities for authentic inquiry-based learning

A focus area providing opportunity for students to engage in research-driven learning with high motivation in an interdisciplinary context.

Polar bears on melting ice berg in Beaufort Sea, 2004Courtesy Environment Canada

Relevance of Climate Change to the NSES

• Unifying concepts and processes

• Science as Inquiry• Physical Science• Life Science• Earth and Space Science• Science and Technology• Science in Personal and

Social Perspectives• History and Nature of

Science

NSES Content Standards, Grades 5-8

Unifying Concepts and Processes•Systems, order, and organization•Evidence, models, and explanation•Change, constancy, and measurement•Evolution and equilibrium

Science as Inquiry

•Abilities necessary to do scientific inquiry•Understandings about scientific inquiry

Physical Science

•Properties and changes of properties in matter•Motions and forces•Transfer of energy

Life Science

•Populations and ecosystems•Diversity and adaptations of organisms

Earth and Space Science

•Structure of the Earth system•Earth’s history•Earth in the solar system

Science and Technology

•Understandings about science and technology

Science in Personal and Social Perspectives

•Populations, resources, and environments•Natural hazards•Risks and benefits•Science and technology in society

History and Nature of Science

•Science as a human endeavor•Nature of science•History of science

NSES Content Standards, Grades 9-12

Unifying Concepts and Processes•Systems, order, and organization•Evidence, models, and explanation•Change, constancy, and measurement•Evolution and equilibrium

Science as Inquiry

•Abilities necessary to do scientific inquiry•Understandings about scientific inquiry

Physical Science

•Chemical reactions•Motions and forces•Conservation of energy and increase in disorder•Interactions of energy and matter

Life Science

•Biological evolution•Interdependence of organisms•Behavior of organisms

Earth and Space Science

•Energy in the Earth system•Geochemical cycles•Origin and evolution of the Earth system

Science and Technology

•Understandings about science and technology

Science in Personal and Social Perspectives

•Population growth•Natural resources•Environmental quality•Natural and human-induced hazards•Science and technology in local, national, and global challenges

History and Nature of Science

•Science as a human endeavor•Nature of scientific knowledge•Historical perspectives

We’re all familiar with the Weather

The state of the atmosphere at a given time that includes temperature, precipitation, humidity, pressure, winds.

Climate

• Global climate is driven by energy from the Sun and modulated by atmospheric composition

• The average weather for a region over a long period of time – 30 years or more

• Determined by latitude, altitude, topography, proximity to oceans/position in land mass

• Characterized by temperature, winds, and rainfall

You buy clothes based on climate

You wear clothes based on weather

The Challenge of Simulating the Global Earth System

Atmosphere Hydrosphere Cryosphere Biosphere

Timeline of Climate Model Development

R15 T42

T85 T170

Model Resolutions

Climate System Models

Global mean surface temperatures have increased

~ highest level of CO2 over past 400 Kyrs

Increase intemperature trackscarbon emissionsand CO2

A Warming World…

NASA

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeu et al., 2002,

100’s of thousands of years:Ice Core Data

today450,000 yrs ago time

Glaciers are Retreating GloballyIn Switzerland…In Switzerland… In Alaska…In Alaska…

Qori Kalis Glacier,Quelccaya Ice Cap, Perubetween 1978 and 2000.

Courtesy of L. Thompson, Byrd Polar Research Center

10-15% Decrease in Arctic Sea Ice Revealed by NOAA Operational Satellites

Permafrost in the Permafrost in the Arctic is melting, Arctic is melting, leading to leading to infrastructure infrastructure damage as well as damage as well as disrupting disrupting subsistence life subsistence life stylesstyles

Ice is breaking up Ice is breaking up earlier on rivers and earlier on rivers and lakes in the spring lakes in the spring around the worldaround the world

Rise in Global Mean Sea Level

250 Year Record of Leafing Out Date of English Oaks

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

IPCC 2007Summary for PolicymakersGreenhouse gas

concentrations have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values.– CO2 increase from fossil

fuel and land-use changes

– Methane, nitrous oxide due to agriculture

IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, evident from observations of– Increases in global

average air and ocean temperature

– Widespread melting of snow and ice

– Rising global mean sea level

IPCC 2007Summary for Policymakers

IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

Warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. The last time polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4-6 meters of sea level rise.

IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers

Natural Variations do not explain observed climatic change

• Climate models with natural forcing (including volcanic and solar) do not reproduce warming

• When increase in greenhouse gases is included, models do reproduce warming

• Addition of increase in aerosols (cooling) improves agreement

IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

For the next 2 decades a warming of .2C/decade is projected. Even if greenhouse gas/aerosol concentrations had been constant at yr 2000, further warming of .1C/decade would result due to slow response of the ocean.

Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates will cause further warming and induce many changes in global climate system this century larger than those observed in the last century.

IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers

IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

IPCC Emission Scenarios• A1- rapid economic growth, population growth peaks and declines mid 2100s,

rapid introduction of new, more efficient technologies. Convergence among regions, capacity building, cultural/social interactions, reduction in regional differences in per capita income.

– A1B – balance across all sources– A1FI – Fossil-fuel intensive energy solutions– A1T – non fossil-fuel energy solutions

• A2 – heterogeneous world, self reliance, slow reduction in population growth, economic development primarily regional, fragmented and slow growth in per capita income and tech growth

• B1 – convergent world, population peak mid 2100s and declines (like A1), rapid change to service/information economy, reductions in material intensive, introduction of clean, resource efficient technology, global solutions, improve equity, but without addl climate initiatives

• B2 – local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability problems. Continuously increasing global population, at rate lower than A2, intermediate economic development, less rapid and more diverse tech change than in A1 and B1.

No scenarios include climate initiatives, meaning that none assume that UN Framework Convention on Climate Change or emissions targets of Kyoto Protocol are enacted

Higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and regional-scale features, continuing currently observed trends:– warming greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes (least over

Southern Ocean and parts of NA ocean)– snow cover will contract– widespread increases in thaw depth over most permafrost regions– sea ice will shrink in both Arctic and Antarctic, in some projections late summer

sea ice disappears in the Arctic by latter part of 21st century– very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will

continue to become more frequent– likely that typhoons and hurricanes will become more intense – extra-tropical storm tracks will move poleward– precipitation at high latitude very likely to increase, while decreases are likely in

most subtropical land regions– Very likely that meridional overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean will slow

down during the 21st century. Average reduction by 2100 is 25% (0-50%). Very abrupt transition is very unlikely in 21st century.

Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise will continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilized

IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers

Under the Scenario A2…Business-As-Usual This is What Happens to Arctic Sea Ice

20,000 years ago 2200? ( + 5 meters)

Past and Future Rise in Sea Level

Zwally et al., (2002) ScienceAlley et al. (2005) Science

Multiple new dynamic mechanisms for increased ice sheet sensitivity to surface warming have been discovered

Location and frequency of glacial earthquakes on Greenland. Seismic magnitudes are in range 4.6 to 5.1.Source: Ekstrom, Nettles and Tsai, Science, 311, 1756, 2006.

Earthquake Locations Annual Number of Quakes*

* 2005 bars capture only first 10 months of 2005

Glacial Earthquakes on Greenland

Areas Under Water: Four Regions

CLIMATE

CHANGE

Temperature Rise 1

Sea level Rise 2

Extreme Weather Events

Heat

Respiratory diseases

Vector-borne Diseases

Water-borne Diseases

Changes in water availability,

infrastructure & food supply

Environmental Refugees

Heat Stress MortalityUrban Heat islands

Ozone

MalariaDengueWest Nile VirusEncephalitisHantavirusRift Valley Fever

CholeraCyclosporaCryptosporidiosisCampylobacterLeptospirosis

Waste System failureRunoffDiarrheaToxic Red TidesMalnutrition

Forced MigrationOvercrowdingInfectious diseases

Health Effect of Climate ChangeHealth Effect of Climate Change

Some Great Websites on Climate• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)- http://www.ipcc.ch/index.html• US Global Change Research Program (lots of good stuff)-

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/default.htm• World Health Organization (WHO) -

http://www.who.int/peh/climate/climate_and_health.htm• US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) –

http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/Climate.html• National Snow and Ice Data Center (great cryosphere data)- http://nsidc.org/noaa/• National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics -

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/• Climate HotSpots Map (AMAZING!)- http://www.climatehotmap.org/index.html• Vital Climate Graphics (Great ppt Graphics)-

http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/index.htm• World View of Global Warming (photos)- http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/• Exploratorium Global Change Research Explorer -

http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/index.html• Global Environmental Change and Our Health -

http://www.pbs.org/journeytoplanetearth/johnshopkins/index.html• NCAR Education and Outreach Website – www.ncar.ucar.edu/eo

Johns Hopkins University School of Public HealthCourse: Global Environment and Health

We have a duty to all the world’s people… and especially to the children of the world, to whom the future belongs

- UN Millennium Goals

Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored

Aldous Huxley

• Extra slides (do not print out beyond this point)

Extreme EventsStorms, Floods,Droughts, Cyclones

• More frequent droughts and periods of intense precipitation

• Direct loss of life and injury• Indirect effects

– Loss of shelter– Population displacement– Contamination of water supplies– Loss of food production– Increased risk of infectious disease epidemics (diarrhoeal

and respiratory)– Damage to infrastructure for provision of health services

Heat Waves

Impacts on human health and mortality, economic impacts, ecosystem and wildlife impacts

(Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004: More intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century, Science, 305, 994-997)