Climate Change Science: What we know today and future impacts Dr. Roberta Johnson University...
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Transcript of Climate Change Science: What we know today and future impacts Dr. Roberta Johnson University...
Climate Change Science: Climate Change Science: What we know today and What we know today and
future impactsfuture impacts
Dr. Roberta JohnsonUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric
ResearchEducation and Outreach
Overview
• Why climate change science in the classroom?
• Climate versus Weather
• Climate Models• Climate Change
Observations• IPCC 4th Assessment
Summary for Policy Makers
• Future Impacts
Annual layers of ice, Quelccaya Ice Cap, PeruCourtesy of Lonnie Thompson
Why Focus on Climate Change?
• Societal Relevance• National Science Education
Standards (NRC, 1996)• Interdisciplinary content
spans broad spectrum of the geosciences
• Opportunities for authentic inquiry-based learning
A focus area providing opportunity for students to engage in research-driven learning with high motivation in an interdisciplinary context.
Polar bears on melting ice berg in Beaufort Sea, 2004Courtesy Environment Canada
Relevance of Climate Change to the NSES
• Unifying concepts and processes
• Science as Inquiry• Physical Science• Life Science• Earth and Space Science• Science and Technology• Science in Personal and
Social Perspectives• History and Nature of
Science
NSES Content Standards, Grades 5-8
Unifying Concepts and Processes•Systems, order, and organization•Evidence, models, and explanation•Change, constancy, and measurement•Evolution and equilibrium
Science as Inquiry
•Abilities necessary to do scientific inquiry•Understandings about scientific inquiry
Physical Science
•Properties and changes of properties in matter•Motions and forces•Transfer of energy
Life Science
•Populations and ecosystems•Diversity and adaptations of organisms
Earth and Space Science
•Structure of the Earth system•Earth’s history•Earth in the solar system
Science and Technology
•Understandings about science and technology
Science in Personal and Social Perspectives
•Populations, resources, and environments•Natural hazards•Risks and benefits•Science and technology in society
History and Nature of Science
•Science as a human endeavor•Nature of science•History of science
NSES Content Standards, Grades 9-12
Unifying Concepts and Processes•Systems, order, and organization•Evidence, models, and explanation•Change, constancy, and measurement•Evolution and equilibrium
Science as Inquiry
•Abilities necessary to do scientific inquiry•Understandings about scientific inquiry
Physical Science
•Chemical reactions•Motions and forces•Conservation of energy and increase in disorder•Interactions of energy and matter
Life Science
•Biological evolution•Interdependence of organisms•Behavior of organisms
Earth and Space Science
•Energy in the Earth system•Geochemical cycles•Origin and evolution of the Earth system
Science and Technology
•Understandings about science and technology
Science in Personal and Social Perspectives
•Population growth•Natural resources•Environmental quality•Natural and human-induced hazards•Science and technology in local, national, and global challenges
History and Nature of Science
•Science as a human endeavor•Nature of scientific knowledge•Historical perspectives
We’re all familiar with the Weather
The state of the atmosphere at a given time that includes temperature, precipitation, humidity, pressure, winds.
Climate
• Global climate is driven by energy from the Sun and modulated by atmospheric composition
• The average weather for a region over a long period of time – 30 years or more
• Determined by latitude, altitude, topography, proximity to oceans/position in land mass
• Characterized by temperature, winds, and rainfall
You buy clothes based on climate
You wear clothes based on weather
The Challenge of Simulating the Global Earth System
Atmosphere Hydrosphere Cryosphere Biosphere
Timeline of Climate Model Development
R15 T42
T85 T170
Model Resolutions
Climate System Models
Global mean surface temperatures have increased
~ highest level of CO2 over past 400 Kyrs
Increase intemperature trackscarbon emissionsand CO2
A Warming World…
NASA
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeu et al., 2002,
100’s of thousands of years:Ice Core Data
today450,000 yrs ago time
Glaciers are Retreating GloballyIn Switzerland…In Switzerland… In Alaska…In Alaska…
Qori Kalis Glacier,Quelccaya Ice Cap, Perubetween 1978 and 2000.
Courtesy of L. Thompson, Byrd Polar Research Center
10-15% Decrease in Arctic Sea Ice Revealed by NOAA Operational Satellites
Permafrost in the Permafrost in the Arctic is melting, Arctic is melting, leading to leading to infrastructure infrastructure damage as well as damage as well as disrupting disrupting subsistence life subsistence life stylesstyles
Ice is breaking up Ice is breaking up earlier on rivers and earlier on rivers and lakes in the spring lakes in the spring around the worldaround the world
Rise in Global Mean Sea Level
250 Year Record of Leafing Out Date of English Oaks
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
IPCC 2007Summary for PolicymakersGreenhouse gas
concentrations have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values.– CO2 increase from fossil
fuel and land-use changes
– Methane, nitrous oxide due to agriculture
IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, evident from observations of– Increases in global
average air and ocean temperature
– Widespread melting of snow and ice
– Rising global mean sea level
IPCC 2007Summary for Policymakers
IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007
IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007
Warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. The last time polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4-6 meters of sea level rise.
IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers
Natural Variations do not explain observed climatic change
• Climate models with natural forcing (including volcanic and solar) do not reproduce warming
• When increase in greenhouse gases is included, models do reproduce warming
• Addition of increase in aerosols (cooling) improves agreement
IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007
For the next 2 decades a warming of .2C/decade is projected. Even if greenhouse gas/aerosol concentrations had been constant at yr 2000, further warming of .1C/decade would result due to slow response of the ocean.
Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates will cause further warming and induce many changes in global climate system this century larger than those observed in the last century.
IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers
IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007
IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007
IPCC Emission Scenarios• A1- rapid economic growth, population growth peaks and declines mid 2100s,
rapid introduction of new, more efficient technologies. Convergence among regions, capacity building, cultural/social interactions, reduction in regional differences in per capita income.
– A1B – balance across all sources– A1FI – Fossil-fuel intensive energy solutions– A1T – non fossil-fuel energy solutions
• A2 – heterogeneous world, self reliance, slow reduction in population growth, economic development primarily regional, fragmented and slow growth in per capita income and tech growth
• B1 – convergent world, population peak mid 2100s and declines (like A1), rapid change to service/information economy, reductions in material intensive, introduction of clean, resource efficient technology, global solutions, improve equity, but without addl climate initiatives
• B2 – local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability problems. Continuously increasing global population, at rate lower than A2, intermediate economic development, less rapid and more diverse tech change than in A1 and B1.
No scenarios include climate initiatives, meaning that none assume that UN Framework Convention on Climate Change or emissions targets of Kyoto Protocol are enacted
Higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and regional-scale features, continuing currently observed trends:– warming greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes (least over
Southern Ocean and parts of NA ocean)– snow cover will contract– widespread increases in thaw depth over most permafrost regions– sea ice will shrink in both Arctic and Antarctic, in some projections late summer
sea ice disappears in the Arctic by latter part of 21st century– very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will
continue to become more frequent– likely that typhoons and hurricanes will become more intense – extra-tropical storm tracks will move poleward– precipitation at high latitude very likely to increase, while decreases are likely in
most subtropical land regions– Very likely that meridional overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean will slow
down during the 21st century. Average reduction by 2100 is 25% (0-50%). Very abrupt transition is very unlikely in 21st century.
Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise will continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilized
IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers
Under the Scenario A2…Business-As-Usual This is What Happens to Arctic Sea Ice
20,000 years ago 2200? ( + 5 meters)
Past and Future Rise in Sea Level
Zwally et al., (2002) ScienceAlley et al. (2005) Science
Multiple new dynamic mechanisms for increased ice sheet sensitivity to surface warming have been discovered
Location and frequency of glacial earthquakes on Greenland. Seismic magnitudes are in range 4.6 to 5.1.Source: Ekstrom, Nettles and Tsai, Science, 311, 1756, 2006.
Earthquake Locations Annual Number of Quakes*
* 2005 bars capture only first 10 months of 2005
Glacial Earthquakes on Greenland
Areas Under Water: Four Regions
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Temperature Rise 1
Sea level Rise 2
Extreme Weather Events
Heat
Respiratory diseases
Vector-borne Diseases
Water-borne Diseases
Changes in water availability,
infrastructure & food supply
Environmental Refugees
Heat Stress MortalityUrban Heat islands
Ozone
MalariaDengueWest Nile VirusEncephalitisHantavirusRift Valley Fever
CholeraCyclosporaCryptosporidiosisCampylobacterLeptospirosis
Waste System failureRunoffDiarrheaToxic Red TidesMalnutrition
Forced MigrationOvercrowdingInfectious diseases
Health Effect of Climate ChangeHealth Effect of Climate Change
Some Great Websites on Climate• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)- http://www.ipcc.ch/index.html• US Global Change Research Program (lots of good stuff)-
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/default.htm• World Health Organization (WHO) -
http://www.who.int/peh/climate/climate_and_health.htm• US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) –
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/Climate.html• National Snow and Ice Data Center (great cryosphere data)- http://nsidc.org/noaa/• National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics -
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/• Climate HotSpots Map (AMAZING!)- http://www.climatehotmap.org/index.html• Vital Climate Graphics (Great ppt Graphics)-
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/index.htm• World View of Global Warming (photos)- http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/• Exploratorium Global Change Research Explorer -
http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/index.html• Global Environmental Change and Our Health -
http://www.pbs.org/journeytoplanetearth/johnshopkins/index.html• NCAR Education and Outreach Website – www.ncar.ucar.edu/eo
Johns Hopkins University School of Public HealthCourse: Global Environment and Health
We have a duty to all the world’s people… and especially to the children of the world, to whom the future belongs
- UN Millennium Goals
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored
Aldous Huxley
• Extra slides (do not print out beyond this point)
Extreme EventsStorms, Floods,Droughts, Cyclones
• More frequent droughts and periods of intense precipitation
• Direct loss of life and injury• Indirect effects
– Loss of shelter– Population displacement– Contamination of water supplies– Loss of food production– Increased risk of infectious disease epidemics (diarrhoeal
and respiratory)– Damage to infrastructure for provision of health services
Heat Waves
Impacts on human health and mortality, economic impacts, ecosystem and wildlife impacts
(Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004: More intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century, Science, 305, 994-997)