Climate ChangeClimate ChangePast, Present and FuturePast, Present and Future

MarkMark NewNew

Climate Research GroupClimate Research Group

The Earth Today

600,000,000 Years Ago

18,000 Years Ago

Global Change Research in SoGE

Quaternary Science Ecological Change Climate Change

Prof David Thomas Dr Kathy Willis Dr Richard Washington

Dr Stephen Stokes Dr Rob Whittaker Dr Mark New

Dr Richard Bailey Dr Yadvinder Mahli Dr Ana Lopez

Dr Simon Armitage Dr Lindsey Gillson Dr Anthony Preston

Dr Mortezza Fatahi Dr Terry Brncic

Dr Kathleen Nicoll Dr. Miguel Araújo

Ice Cores

Ice Cores

The Vostok Ice Core Record

The Vostok Ice Core Record

Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations

Global Near Surface Temperature

Variability from Palaeodata

Natural Forcing Only

Anthropogenic Forcing Only

Natural & Anthropogenic Forcing

Attribution of Impacts

Attribution of Impacts

Central England Temperature (Jul & Aug)

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

1650 1750 1850 1950

Year

Te

mp

era

ture

(C)

Was Last Summer due to Global Warming?

• Probability of these temperatures without CO2 forcing is ~0.2% (1:500 years)

• Probability of these temperature today with CO2 forcing is ~4.0% (1:25 years)

• Probability of these temperatures in 2020, if CO2 increases continue is 20% (1:5 years)

The Earth Today