- 1 -

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Buildings

Using the Engineers Canada PIEVC Process

By

Gerald R Genge, P.Eng., C.Eng., BDS, BSSO, C.Arb., Q.Med.

Dale D. Kerr, M.Eng., P.Eng., BSSO, ACCI.

ABSTRACT

Building design today relies heavily on historic climate data; however, as our climate is beginning to

change, historic data can no longer accurately represent future conditions over the life of a building.

Throughout the next 40 years, Ontario is expected to see increases in temperature, relative humidity,

rainfall, snowfall, wind pressures, and UV radiation. In addition to changing the criteria for building

design, these weather changes can significantly affect Ontario’s existing building stock. Via Engineers

Canada, the Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) is tasked with

overseeing the planning and execution of climate change vulnerability assessments of public

infrastructure. Buildings represent one of four key areas that the PIEVC investigates. Through a case

study on a sample building, this paper discusses a five step protocol used to assess the effects of climate

change on buildings. The protocol includes determining the most important building components,

identifying the climate change parameters and associated values, probability of occurrence, and a risk

assessment protocol. Recommendations on specific building systems as well as on their operations and

maintenance can then be derived.

THE PIEVC PROCESS

The methodology employed follows the protocol

established by Public Infrastructure Engineering

Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC). The process

(Figure 1) includes several steps that assure

consistent and fair assessment of the effects of

climate change on infrastructure. The process

involves a rigorous review of the climatic

parameters that are expected to change in the next 40

years along with an assessment of the impact those

changes are expected to have on buildings. This

paper focusses on the climate change parameters

arising from the case study that affect buildings of

high density residential occupancy.

The protocol includes an assessment of risk in

combination with engineering judgement to assess

the impact of identified climate change parameters

on the building in the case study. The protocol is

FIGURE 1: PIEVC PROTOCOL OUTLINE.

- 2 -

generic in that it is applicable to four categories of infrastructure including:

Buildings;

Roads and associated structures;

Storm and waste water treatment and collection systems; and,

Water resource systems.

The authors adapted the process to buildings and in particular, the multi-unit residential occupancy in a

case study. The Protocol employed was Version 10 Beta Method A with scores to Method B October

2011.

STEP 1 - PROJECT DEFINITION

This step develops a description of the case study building including Location, Infrastructure Detail,

Historical Climate, Load(s), Age, Life Cycle, any other relevant factors;

STEP 2 – DATA GATHERING AND SUFFICIENCY

This step involves the collection of data. The data includes: identification of the components of the

infrastructure to be assessed and the climate factors to be considered. The climate change projection

information is derived from a variety of sources, including the Canadian Climate Change Scenarios web

site (www.cccsn.ca) and peer-reviewed studies with results applicable to Toronto.

STEP 3 – RISK ASSESSMENT

This step involves identifying those components that may be vulnerable to climate change. If insufficient

data exists on the level of risk or the expected performance, recommendations for research or other action

are to be given.

Since there are a variety of perspectives on these matters, a workshop approach involving representatives

from a variety of stakeholders was employed.

STEP 4 – ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

Some Risk Assessments may require analysis to determine the level of vulnerability. Typically the

PIEVC protocol assumes empirically-derived mathematical relationships between load and capacity and

reliable data. Since most environmental design considerations use very limited empirically-based design

criteria, no rigorous analysis was conducted to compare loads and resistance.

STEP 5 – RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

Based on the results of Steps 1 to 4, recommendations are required, including:

Action to upgrade the infrastructure;

Management action to accommodate changes in the capacity of the building;

Performance monitoring for re-evaluation at a later date;

Necessary additional research and analysis; or

No action required.

- 3 -

STEP 1 - PROJECT DEFINITION

LOCATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE DETAIL

The building in the case study was selected by Engineers Canada. A complete report can be downloaded

from http://www.pievc.ca/e/casedocs/Shuter/285_Shuter_Final_Report.pdf. The sample building is a 16-storey

residential building built in 1964 and provides family housing in Toronto. The building includes a variety

of residential unit sizes ranging from single occupancy to family occupancy; however, the majority of the

units are bachelor and one-bedroom apartments. The construction is typical of buildings of the vintage

having load-bearing, conventionally-reinforced concrete framing. The exterior walls are two-wythe brick

veneer supported on the reinforced concrete floor slabs. Repairs responding to carbonation-induced

corrosion of reinforcing steel and leaking at cracks have been undertaken. The exterior walls are the

primary building component separating the interior and exterior environment and thus are a primary

consideration in the assessment of climate change.

The windows have the original single-glazed sliders and are well past their life expectancy, and have been

assumed to represent 25% of the building energy loss. The windows are the second most relevant

component both in area and impact on heat transfer between the interior and exterior environments. They

provide or protect against solar heat gain; the operable portions allow for ventilation; and glazing

provides natural light to support the well-being of the occupants and reduce the need for artificial lighting.

The integration of the window system into the controlled interior environment is also a key consideration

in this study.

Heating is provided by gas-fired boilers and is distributed through insulated copper pipe to radiators in

common areas and suites. The boilers range in efficiency from 65% to 75%. Suite ventilation and

corridor pressurization is provided by make-up air units installed on the roof of the building. There is no

central air conditioning; it is estimated that 25% of the units have added window-mounted air-

conditioners. Air conditioning is a critical concern looking forward.

The electrical system is typical of older buildings. In the context of climate change, available power

supply is crucial to satisfy anticipated air conditioning loads, as will ensuring adequate emergency power

to satisfy the minimum demand during times of power loss from the municipal grid.

COMPONENT INVENTORY

Listings of components are typically sorted by major building systems and then broken down into

subsystems. Different consultants, owner groups, and proprietary software for asset management list the

components under different headings, but they are generally grouped under the following headings: Site,

Structure, Building Envelope, Mechanical HVAC, Plumbing and Drainage, Electrical, Elevator, Life

Safety, and Finishes.

TIME HORIZON

The time horizon stipulated by the owner and Engineers Canada is to the years 2020 and to 2050. The

2020 target date is expected to capture the near term changes and the 2050 target date is expected to

capture longer term changes to climate. These two horizons address anticipated thresholds that may, in

the shorter term, have a greater influence on building components than the longer term horizon.

- 4 -

The period of time during which the infrastructure is expected to operate is a further 40 to 50 years. This

is consistent with the term of the study horizon to 2050.

RELEVANT CLIMATE PARAMETERS

The climatic design values included in the model National Building Code of Canada (mNBCC) provides

some initial guidance as to the climate parameters that are relevant to the design and performance of a

building. The environmental loads listed therein may act individually or in combination; however, the

mNBCC does not have design criteria for combination loads due to environmental effects. This is a gap

to be filled by future research.

In addition to the environmental parameters in the mNBCC, using our professional judgment, we

identified additional environmental loads that currently or under future climate change could affect the

building and site components and their ability to maintain a reasonable indoor environment. These are

tabulated and the effects of climate change, based on studies referenced at the end of this paper, are

summarized in Table 3.

CLIMATE BASELINE

Recently updated climate Normals information confirms that significant warming has taken place in the

past few decades in the Toronto region and should be reflected in the climatic design values. The updated

(but unofficial) climate temperature Normals or average annual temperatures for Toronto Pearson Airport

are shown in the Table 1 below for the various historical reference periods.

Normals Period (30 years) Average Annual Temperature Average No. Days with mean temperatures above 0°C

1961-1990 7.3°C 212

1971-2000 7.7°C 219

1981-2010 8.8°C 228

TABLE 1 HISTORICAL AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURES AND DAYS WITH MEAN

TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0°C.

CUMULATIVE OR SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Many of the weathering processes, including wind-driven rain, freeze-thaw cycles, wetting and drying,

wind-driven abrasive materials, the action of broad spectrum solar radiation and ultraviolet (UV)

radiation, and atmospheric chemical deposition on materials have the potential to increase under climate

change.

It is anticipated that there will be deleterious effects arising from cumulative environmental loads. The

cumulative effects of freeze thaw cycles and increase rainfall are expected to expose the unprotected brick

masonry in the sample building to greater risk of freeze/thaw damage. In addition, potential increase in

high wind events along with rain will require greater water leakage resistance by the cladding, windows

and exterior doors.

- 5 -

STEP 2 – DATA GATHERING AND SUFFICIENCY

DEVELOPMENT OF THE ASSUMPTIONS FOR CHANGING CLIMATE

Projections of the future climate used in this study considered climate change models produced by more

than 24 different international climate change modeling centres. Those scenarios form the basis for

climate projection work for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Despite the

multiplicity of models, it still remains a challenge to reliably derive changes in climate extremes from

model outputs owing to the coarse spatial resolution of the models and the importance of regional

influences on climate. Environmental factors considered in this case study are listed in Table 2 together

with a summary of the predictive model data for each selected parameter. Where data was not

sufficiently reliable, generalizations have been made.

Parameter Data

Temperature Historical

(usually 1971-2000)

2050s

(Ensemble Projections)

Relative Change (% less % more)

# days ≥ 30°C 15 40 +166%

# days ≥ 35°C 0.5 4 +700%

NBCC 2.5% July Dry Bulb Design Temperature 31°C 34°C +9%

NBCC 1% January Dry Bulb Design Temperature -20°C -16°C -20%

30-year period Extreme High Temperature 37°C 40°C +8%

Annual Average Cooling Degree-days 356 640 +80%

Annual Average Heating Degree-days 3520 2900 -18%

Average Annual Freeze-Thaw Cycles 55 ~40 -27%

Average Annual Days < -20°C 1.4 0.3 -78%

Average Annual Heat Related Mortalities 120 280 +133%

Precipitation Parameter

Average annual # wet days 113 ~ 125 +7%

Extreme annual precipitation (for a 30 year period) 1828 mm ~1940 mm 6%

Average Annual Precipitation 835 mm ~ 890mm 7%

Average annual Rainfall 710 mm ~> 800 mm +13%

NBCC 10 year return period 15 minute rainfall 25 mm Likely increasing +

NBCC 50 year return period one day rainfall 97 mm Increasing ~ 60% +60%

Average # days with > 25 mm rainfall 4.2 > 5 +2%

Maximum consecutive Dry days/year ~ 13 Likely increasing +

Driving Rain Wind Pressures (5-year return period) 160 kPa Likely increasing +

mNBCC design Ground Snow Loads Ss-0.9, Sr=0.4 kPa Rain with snow and

intense storms - increase +

Rain on snow events, snowmelt Increasing +

Extreme Wind Gust

NBCC 10 year return period wind pressures 0.34 kPa Likely increasing +

NBCC 50 year return period wind pressures 0.44kPa Likely increasing +

Average # hours/year > 70kph 24 (for 1994-2007) 26 (Pearson Area) +8%

Average # hours/year with Gusts > 80kph 5.9 ~7 mostly spring and fall +2%

Average # hours/year with Gusts > 90kph 1.0 h ~1.9 h +90%

Tornado risks May increase +

Severe thunderstorm Average 1-2 d/yr Potential increases +

TABLE 2 CURRENT CLIMATE PARAMETER VALUES AND 2050 ENSEMBLE CLIMATIC PROJECTIONS

- 6 -

STEP 3 - RISK ASSESSMENT

ANTICIPATED SITE RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Potential building/site responses to climate change were developed and formed the basis of subsequent

steps in the vulnerability assessment. These included: Structural Strength and Serviceability parameters,

Water Shedding Capacity/Storage, Fuel Sources and Power Demand, Operational Issues and Responses,

and Public Sector Policy and Code Changes.

The risk assessment involves identifying how vulnerable building components may be to climate change.

The anticipated performance of the building components subjected to climate change reveals those at risk

of negative effect under the influence of climate change and the possible risk level.

The consequence on a particular building component based on a particular aspect of climate change is

assessed independently of the likelihood of occurrence of that climate event to arrive at an overall risk

rating. This is stated in mathematical terms as:

R = P x S

Where, R = Risk;

P = Probability of a negative event and,

S = Severity of the event, given that it has happened.

CLIMATE CHANGE PARAMETERS RANKING

Working with the building owner, the Probability Ranking “P” (Table 3) was developed. Climatic

parameters ranked with Probability of an occurrence having an Important Ranking of 5, 6 and 7 included:

Temperature, Rain, Snow, Hail, Freeze-Thaw, Ice Accretion, Wind, and Solar Heat Gain. Those ranking

0 to 3 were dropped from the assessment. Using the assessment team and focus group experience, a

“Severity” “S” (Table 4) was developed.

Importance Ranking Criterion

0 N/A

1 Recognize its existence when analyzing other components.

3 Interested. Analyze if budget allows.

5 Analyze normally.

6 Relatively important. Analyze with more attention.

7 Important. Analyze with much more attention.

TABLE 3 PROBABILITY /IMPORTANCE RANKINGS (P) FOR ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE PARAMETERS,

BUILDING PERFORMANCE AND BUILDING COMPONENTS.

Score Severity of Consequences and Effects (S)

Method A Method B

0 No Effect Negligible - Not Applicable

1 Measurable Very Low - Some Measurable Change

2 Minor Low - Slight Loss of Serviceability

3 Moderate Moderate Loss of Serviceability

4 Major Major Loss of Serviceability - Some Loss of Capacity

5 Serious Loss of Capacity - Some Loss of Function

6 Hazardous Major - Loss of Function

7 Catastrophic Extreme - Loss of Asset

TABLE 4 SEVERITY SCORE DEFINITIONS (S)

- 7 -

RISK ASSESSMENT SPREADSHEET

Based on the work done in Steps 1 and 2, a comprehensive spreadsheet was developed with rows

representing the building components to be considered and the columns representing the climate

parameters to be considered. The risk assessment protocol was then adapted as follows:

1. Y/N: To indicate if the climate parameter is expected to impact the building component. These cells

were pre-populated based on the professional judgement of the authors. Where an “N” was

indicated, no risk calculation was made.

2. P: The standardized probability of the climate event occurring. These values were populated based

on the Lifespan (50 years) Climatological Probability (Table 3).

3. S: The score representing the severity of the event, given that it has happened (Table 4).

4. R: The calculated Risk, which is simply the product of P and S.

The PIEVC Protocol established the thresholds for risk tolerance as indicated in Table 5.

Risk Range Threshold Response

< 12 Low Risk No action necessary.

12 – 36 Medium Risk Action may be required.

Engineering analysis may be required.

> 36 High Risk Action required.

TABLE 5 REFERENCE RISK TOLERANCE THRESHOLDS

The spreadsheet is a full 11 x 17, 6 point font table and is not included herein in its entirety. This chart

can be viewed in its entirety in the referenced study on the PIEVC website. A portion of the risk

assessment results showing the calculated risk (P x S) where a “Yes” impact was anticipated is shown in

Table 6. Note that the only Building Component to achieve a high risk level was air conditioning

(Circled cell), a component currently not included in the building except by ad hoc installations.

Notable building components determined to be “Medium Risk” included:

Grounds and Site, particularly with respect to drainage management and handling ice.

Building Envelope, particularly with respect to moisture management and heat/cooling losses.

Mechanical drainage systems at risk of inducing flooding.

Emergency electrical supply systems associated with capacity to deal with power outages.

STEP 4 – ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

No analytical work was conducted in the scope of the study. As noted, empirical relationships associated

with designs for moisture management at the building envelope level do not exist as yet. While drainage

control capacity on site could be analysed, the “bottleneck” would be drainage capacity of the municipal

infrastructure which was determined to be the subject of independent PIEVC assessments.

- 8 -

TABLE 6 SUMMARY OF RISKS FROM BUILDING COMPONENT/CLIMATE FACTOR TABLE

STEP 5 – RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

ACTION TO UPGRADE THE INFRASTRUCTURE

Overcladding

Climate prediction indicates that in the short term, wetting from rainfall, freeze-thaw and wind driven rain

pressure will increase while the temperature increases. This has an effect on the exterior brick veneer

cladding which is subject to wetting and freeze thaw cycles. Both these exposure conditions are expected

to increase in the short term and increase the likelihood of cladding deterioration. Some areas of the

cladding have already experienced deterioration and have been replaced.

It is expected that the increase in wetting will arise primarily from external sources rather than interior

vapour migration and condensation within the wall system. Thus, exterior protection in the form of a

Tota

l ra

infa

ll

Heavy r

ain

Rain

on s

now

events

Snow

accum

ula

tion

Snow

Loads

Snow

me

lt

Severe

Ice S

torm

s

Com

bin

ed R

ain

/Win

d

Dry

spells

Hig

h w

ind s

peeds

Lig

htn

ing,

Severe

Thunders

torm

sT

orn

adoes

Extr

em

e H

eat

Coolin

g d

egre

e d

ays

Sunny d

ays

Hum

iditie

s

Extr

em

e C

old

Heating d

egre

e d

ays

Fre

eze-t

haw

Driveways/Surface Parking 14 19 23 19 6 21 26 2 4 3 1 1 23 2 2 6 0 0 18

Sidewalks/Steps/Curbs/Patios 12 18 21 19 6 21 28 2 4 2 1 1 14 2 2 6 0 0 18

Drainage 18 28 33 16 5 14 14 4 9 2 1 5 2 2 2 1 0 0 0

Balcony Decks 2 4 12 11 15 12 14 12 9 2 1 1 2 2 2 6 0 0 12

Balcony Railings 2 2 2 4 3 2 2 2 9 23 1 9 2 2 2 1 0 0 0

Foundation Walls 12 21 11 4 3 14 2 2 4 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0

Caulking 2 2 4 4 6 2 4 7 11 6 1 3 25 5 5 3 8 0 6

Doors 9 16 12 5 3 2 5 11 11 24 1 10 2 11 12 2 5 9 0

Exterior Cladding General 18 26 2 4 5 2 4 14 11 20 1 10 12 14 12 4 5 12 20

Windows 14 28 2 4 6 2 5 21 12 27 1 12 28 25 23 10 8 18 0

General Roof Repairs/Replace 2 25 2 9 18 2 21 7 12 5 1 11 23 16 25 2 7 12 0

Roof Flashings 2 2 2 4 4 2 5 16 12 15 1 9 2 2 2 2 0 0 0

Elevator Electrical Equipment 2 2 2 4 1 2 2 2 2 9 1 1 21 2 2 1 0 0 0

Elevator Sump 2 28 5 4 1 14 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0

Exterior Lighting 2 2 2 7 4 2 11 7 12 2 1 11 2 2 2 1 0 0 0

Air Makeup System 2 2 2 4 1 2 12 2 11 6 2 1 18 19 5 1 6 18 0

Convection Radiators 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 5 11 7 1 2 0 0

Ducting - Exhaust 2 2 2 7 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 5 19 2 1 0 0 0

Ducting - Supply 2 2 2 4 1 2 2 2 2 6 1 1 7 19 2 1 0 5 0

Heating Boilers 2 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 5 5 1 0 14 0

Heating System - General 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 5 5 1 0 0 0

Heating System - Units 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 5 5 1 0 14 0

Storm Water Removal General 14 26 23 23 10 12 12 11 7 2 1 5 2 2 2 1 0 0 0

Heating Pumps 2 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 7 5 1 0 5 0

Heating Supply Lines 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 7 5 1 0 4 0

Air-Conditioning 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 11 3 2 42 32 5 7 0 0 0

Exhaust - General 2 2 2 2 1 2 4 2 2 11 3 1 16 19 5 7 3 7 0

Emergency Generator 2 2 4 2 1 2 32 2 2 26 11 11 19 2 2 1 0 0 0

Transfer Switch 2 2 4 2 1 2 16 2 2 17 6 5 2 2 2 1 0 0 0

Transformer 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 11 8 1 21 2 2 1 0 0 0

Roofing

Elevators

Climate Factor

Building Component

Grounds/Site

Structural

Building Envelope

Electrical

Mechanical

Life Safety

- 9 -

moisture barrier is required. Overcladding is the preferred approach which can incorporate a combination

of resistance factors to environmental effects.

In addition, increased wetting increases the likelihood of corrosion of reinforcing steel at the exposed

concrete, including floor slab edges, columns and beams, and balcony slab edges. The depth of

carbonation is time and material dependant progressing at a rate of up to 2 to 3 mm/yr; however, the

degree of corrosion is largely a function of moisture content, pH of the concrete, and oxygen availability.

Reduction of moisture content from the exterior through overcladding will reduce the progression of

carbonation-induced corrosion and deterioration of the concrete slab edges.

Replacement Windows

In a survey of high-rise buildings conducted in 1998, 93% of the properties surveyed had all of the

windows replaced. The typical life span of the windows varied but 49% of the window replacement in

buildings constructed in the 1960s took place when the windows were between 25 and 30 years old. Only

7% exceeded 36 years.

The existing windows are thermally inefficient, leak air and water, and are reported to be responsible for

25% of the heat loss. The windows are also over 45 years old and thus, roughly 10 to 15 years past their

normal life span. Replacement can reduce heat loss and improve thermal comfort.

Window Air-conditioners and Window Remedial Work Options

The air-conditioner capacity and number of air-conditioners in the units is uncontrolled. Thus, the power

demand and the potential for overloading existing electrical circuitry is unknown. Since the air-

conditioner installation has been ad hoc, the stability of the installation is unknown. There is risk in the

air-conditioners falling from the opening.

It is anticipated that climate change and general desire for increased comfort consistent with newer

buildings will increase the number of window air conditioners installed with a corresponding increase in

risk associated with failure of those installations. Moreover, the air-conditioners are not installed in a

sleeve that is purpose-made for the installation in the existing window. Water penetration around the air-

conditioner will (continue to) leak into the interior space or interior of the wall system. Remedial work

must therefore integrate the window and air conditioning system if steps are to be taken to provide air

conditioning to the suites. Options include:

New windows with air conditioner sleeves designed to drain

New Incremental through wall units below windows

New 2 or 4 pipe fan-coil system

Cooling stations in the building

A feasibility study had been recommended to develop the cost/benefit of these options.

MANAGEMENT ACTION TO ACCOMMODATE CHANGES IN THE CAPACITY OF THE BUILDING

Along with the changes in the building systems, will be a need to amend maintenance practices and the

operational protocols associated with maintenance. Protocols and programs specific to the preferred

approach will vary. Key examples include:

air conditioning supplied by any means requires ongoing equipment assessment and changing of

consumable parts, filters, belts, motors, etc.

- 10 -

overcladding will require altered maintenance of the overcladding finish dependant on the finish

materials and exposure.

PERFORMANCE (AND ASSOCIATED) MONITORING FOR RE-EVALUATION AT A LATER DATE

Education and interaction programs should be developed to advise tenants of the issues involving climate

change as related to their use of the building and to incorporate tenant expectations and needs into

possible changes to the building systems.

Associated with the general impact of the previous recommended physical alterations to the building, is

the study of the potential impact both in terms of timing and physical manifestation of probable ill health

effects on those most vulnerable to the predicted effects of climate change such as increased temperature,

increased humidity, etc. This would necessitate a study of social demographics and predicted trends as

the building continues to age and incorporate results of health relevant studies. Recommendations may

include means to monitor the general social demographic as well as identified individuals.

The physical and emotional impact on the tenancy of not making changes to the building should also be

explored. Should, for example, the building not be upgraded to accommodate improved thermal

performance, air conditioning for occupant comfort and new windows and ventilation systems, the

building may become stigmatized as “unlivable” making it functionally obsolete before it is physically

obsolete.

NECESSARY ADDITIONAL RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS

The building codes used in Canada currently do not incorporate values arising from climate change

prediction models but are based on regularly updated historical data. As predictive models are enhanced

and reliability becomes more aligned with the empirical data that designers are accustomed to using,

prediction data on environmental loads should be included in the climatological data available to

designers.

In addition, research is needed to develop the effects of combination loading involving environmental

conditions.

At present, the success or failure of moisture control methods relies on competent design, quality of

materials, resistance to deterioration, and installation practices. “Loads” for design for moisture control

and applicable “Resistance” factors similar to that routinely employed by structural designers may be a

paradigm worth pursuing.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Specific acknowledgement is given to the exceptional work by Heather Auld, a climatologist, in

supporting the case study with respected sources of data on climate change. The authors have employed

accrued experience in developing the findings supplementing the experience available in the following

documents.

1. Auld, H, 2008a. Adaptation by Design: The Impact of Changing Climate on Infrastructure.

Journal of Public Works and Infrastructure; 1 (3), May 2008. pp. 276-288.

- 11 -

2. Auld, H, 2008b. Disaster Risk Reduction under Current and Changing Climate Conditions:

Important Roles for the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. World

Meteorological Organization (WMO) Bulletin, 57 (2), April 2008. pp. 118-125.

3. Burnett A.W., M.E. Kirby, H.T. Mullins and W.P. Patterson, 2003. Increasing Great Lake–Effect

Snowfall during the Twentieth Century: A Regional Response to Global Warming? Journal of

Climate, 16: 3535-3542.

4. Changnon S.A., D. Changnon and T.R. Karl, 2006. Temporal and spatial Characteristics of

Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,

45: 1141-1155.

5. Cheng C.S., Q. Li, G. Li and H. Auld, 2012. Climate Change and Heavy Rainfall-Related Water

Damage Insurance Claims and Losses in Ontario, Canada. Journal of Water Resource and

Protection. Vol.4 No.2, 49-62.

6. Cheng C.S., G. Li. Q. Li, H. Auld and C. Fu, 2012. Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Wind

Gust under Downscaled Future Climate Conditions over Ontario, Canada. Journal of Climate, 25:

3390-3408.

7. Cheng, Shouquan, Guilong Li, Qian Li, Heather Auld, 2011a: A Synoptic Weather-Typing

Approach to Project Future Daily Rainfall and Extremes at Local Scale in Ontario, Canada. J.

Climate, 24, 3667–3685. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3764.1

8. Cheng, C.S., G. Li, and H. Auld, 2011b. Possible impacts of climate change on freezing rain

using downscaled future climate scenarios: Updated for eastern Canada. Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol

49(1), pp. 8-21.

9. Cheng C.S., Q. Li, G. Li and H. Auld, 2010. A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach to Simulate

Daily Rainfall and Extremes in Ontario, Canada: Potential for Climate Change Projections.

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 49, No. 5, 845-866.

10. Cheng, C.S., M. Campbell, Q. Li, G. Li, H. Auld, N. Day, D. Pengelly, S. Gingrich, J. Klaassen,

D. MacIver, N. Comer, Y. Mao, W. Thompson, H. Lin, 2008a. Differential and combined

impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality in south-central Canada.

Part I: Historical Analysis. Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health, 1: 209–222, DOI

10.1007/s11869-009-0027-1.

11. Cheng, C.S., M. Campbell, Q. Li, G. Li, H. Auld, N. Day, D. Pengelly, S. Gingrich, J. Klaassen,

D. MacIver, N. Comer, Y. Mao, W. Thompson, H. Lin, 2008b. Differential and combined

impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality in south-central Canada.

Part II: Future Estimates. Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health, 1: 223–235, DOI 10.1007/s11869-

009-0026-2.

12. Cheng, C.S., G. Li, Q. Li, H. Auld, 2008c.Statistical downscaling of hourly and daily climate

scenarios for various meteorological variables in south-central Canada. Theoretical and Applied

Climatology, DOI 10.1007/s00704-007-0302-8. 91: 129–147.

13. Cheng, C.S., H. Auld, G. Li, J. Klaassen, and Q. Li. 2007a. Possible impacts of climate change on

freezing rain in south-central Canada using downscaled future climate scenarios. Natural Hazards

Earth Systems. Science 7: 71-87. Available from: www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/71/2007/.

14. Cheng, C.S., M. Campbell, Q. Li, G. Li, H. Auld, N. Day, D. Pengelly, S. Gingrich, D. Yap.

2007b. A synoptic climatological approach to assess climatic impact on air quality in south-

central Canada. Part I: historical analysis. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 182: 131-148.

- 12 -

15. Cheng, C.S., M. Campbell, Q. Li, G. Li, H. Auld, N. Day, D. Pengelly, S. Gingrich, D. Yap.

2007c. A synoptic climatological approach to assess climatic impact on air quality in south-

central Canada. Part II: future estimates. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 182: 117-130.

16. Cheng, C.S., H. Auld, G. Li, J. Klaassen, B. Tugwood and Q. Li, 2004. An automated synoptic

typing procedure to predict freezing rain: an application to Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. Weather and

Forecasting 19(4): 751-768.

17. Environment Canada, 2003, Science of Climate Change, Meteorological Service of Canada,

18. Genge G.R., Cost-Effective Concrete Repair, Research, Investigation, Analysis, and

Implementation for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, January 31, 1994, pg 9, 68-69.

19. Genge, G.R., Condition Survey of High-Rise Rental Stock in the City of Toronto by Gerald R.

Genge Building Consultants Inc. November 20, 1998.

20. Genge, G.R., Evaluation of Building Condition Assessment Reports for Condominiums by

Gerald R. Genge Building Consultants Inc., for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

March 2006.

21. Genge, G.R. Lectures on Residential Building Envelope and Structural Repair for EPIC

Education Program Innovations Centre (2009 – 2012).

22. IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group

I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon,

S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (Eds.).

23. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

24. Kharin, V. and F. Zwiers, 2005. Estimating extremes in transient climate change simulations.

Journal of Climate, 18: 1156-1173.

25. Kharin, V., F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang and G. Hegerl, 2007. Changes in Temperature and

Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations. Journal of

Climate, 20: 1419-144.

26. Stewart, M.G., X. Wang and M.N. Nguyen, 2011. Climate change impact and risks of concrete

infrastructure deterioration. Engineering Structures, 33: 1326–1337.

27. Strasser U, 2008. Snow loads in a changing climate: new risks? Natural Hazards and Earth

Systems Science, 8: 1–8.