Climate change negotiation: the Role of Indonesia and other emerging economics

Fitrian Ardiansyah Crawford School of Public Policy The Australian National University fitrian.ardiansyah@anu.edu.au

Images: http://www.iisd.ca

Disclaimer

The views expressed are entirely of the presenter and not that of the Government of the Republic of

Indonesia or any other developing countries’ governments.

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Climate change & emerging economies

• Emerging economies most vulnerable to climate change

• Disasters Data in Indonesia (1815-2013): climate related disasters significant

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Images: http://sites.miis.edu (maplecroft); BNPB (2013)

GHG emissions & emerging economies

• Emerging economies nearing half of GHG emissions

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Images: Ardiansyah et al. (2013) from IEA, the World Bank and CDIAC data

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• Reflecting on energy demand & economic growth

Development challenges & emerging economies

• GDP increasing but still far below the rich countries

• Dependent much on nature-based economies (e.g. forest, plantation, coal, gas, etc.)

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Images: Ardiansyah et al. (2013) from IEA, the World Bank and CDIAC data; GRID-Arendal UNEP (2009) http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/changing-

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Climate change negotiation & emerging economies

• Crucial helping safeguard countries from climate change threats

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Images: Francis Dejon/IISD (theguardian.com); www.wri.org

• Seizing economic opportunity that global negotiations/ forums present helping countries to decouple their economies from GHG emissions

COP-19 results (i)

• Further advancing the Durban Platform

• Swapping the word “commitments” for “contributions” on emission cut plan

• China, India & G77 on ECBDR & RC (equitable & common but differentiated responsibilities & respective capabilities)

• EU, US pushing for commitment from developing countries

• Japan backtracking from its commitment

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The good apples of COP-19?

Images: environment.yale.edu; iisd.ca; forestclimatechange.org

COP-19 results (ii)

• Green Climate Fund (GCF) & Long-Term Finance (LTF)

• Structure & function of GCF finalised but money available only after 2020 (pledged $100bn)

• Realisation for LTF 2014-2020 is not yet quantifiable

• Adaptation Fund: a pledge $104m to fuel stalled projects

• Questions of scale, time, disbursement?

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Images: tcktcktck.org; forestclimatechange.org

WTF? Where is The Finance?

COP-19 results (iii)

• The Warsaw Framework for REDD+

• Completing the ‘rule book’ for REDD+ full implementation of REDD+

• US$280m pledge for REDD+ in 49 partner countries

• GCF: key institution for channelling REDD+ finance

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Images: forestclimatechange.org

COP-19 results (iv)

• The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss & Damage

• One of the most crucial negotiations

• Loss & damage would be under the Adaptation Fund

• G77 & China: “climate change impacts are growingly difficult or impossible to adapt to”

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Images: forestclimatechange.org; takvera.blogspot.com.au;

BBC/reuters

The future

• Toward 2015 & beyond • Big emerging economies to further play a significant role in ensuring the

success of climate change negotiation key negotiation aspects: developed countries’ emissions cut commitment & developing countries’ contributions

• Climate financing: availability & disbursement sign for “seriousness”

• Emerging economies to continue efforts in mitigation & adaptation: e.g. Carbon pricing pilot; Renewable energy investment; REDD+ with the support of strong law enforcement and adequate incentives can lead to limiting deforestation, e.g. the case in Brazil and to some extent in Indonesia

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Images: forestclimatechange.org;

• Expectation: by 2015, an agreed instrument, applicable to all countries

Thank you

Terima kasih

Fitrian Ardiansyah, fitrian.ardiansyah@anu.edu.au

http://fitrianardiansyah.com

@EcoFitrian

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