Climate Change: It happens to be an emergency
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Transcript of Climate Change: It happens to be an emergency
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It happens to be an emergency: climate action now!
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Climate science: warnings that mustn’t be ignored
• Basic science overview
• Runaway climate change
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Climate science – overview
http://www.combatclimatechange.ie/index.asp?locID=6&docID=&COMMAND=PRINTER
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Greenhouse gases and temperature, last 400k years
http://planetforlife.com/gwarm/glob400000.html
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Earth’s temperature is rising
Figure SPM.3
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-figures.html
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Runaway climate change
• “We either keep the warming small or it is likely to be quite large.” (James Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute) www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/Avoidingcatastrophe.pdf
• Positive feedbacks: “everywhere scientists looked in 2006, they encountered feedbacks that will make things worse – a lot worse” (Connor and McCarthy, “Independent”) www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/Avoidingcatastrophe.pdf
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Positive feedbacks
• Reduced reflection of sunlight from polar ice• Water vapour and methane• Decomposition of organic carbon in soils• Ocean warming and slowing Gulf Stream
reduces CO2 absorption/causes its release
• Forest die-back and fires release more CO2
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Greenhouse gas emissions still rising
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US emissions
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Australia’s emissions
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Australia’s emissions 2005Sector 1990 2004 Change %
ChangeMt
CO2-eMtCO2
-eMtCO2
-e
1 Energy 287.5 387.2 99.7 34.70%
Stationary Energy 195.7 279.9 84.2 43.00%
Transport 61.7 76.2 14.5 23.40%
Fugitive Emissions 30 31 1 3.40%
2 Industrial Processes 25.3 29.8 4.5 18.00%
3 Solvent and Other Product Use (a)
NA NA NA NA
4 Agriculture 91.1 93.1 2 2.20%
5 Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry
128.9 35.5 -93.4 -72.50%
6 Waste 19.2 19.1 -0.1 -0.70%
Total net emissions 551.9 564.7 12.8 2.30%
Total emissions minus Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry (b)
423 529.1 106.1 25.08%
Totals and percentages in table may not correspond exactly due to rounding.(a) All emissions from this sector are NMVOCs, which cannot be converted into CO2-e.
(b) My calculations from these data - KE. Included because sector 5 emissions peaked for other reasons in 1990, giving artificially inflated total for the baseline year.
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We must make every effort• Revolutionise global economy• People’s survival will depend on it
February 08, 2005A family climbs to safety when their house is hit by a king tide in Betio, on the South Pacific island of Kiribati, in February, 2005. Waves peaked at 2.87 metres.
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Set the targets we need
• A target fails if reaching us still gives us runaway global warming
• 60%, 80% emissions reductions targets by 2050, while requiring much effort, would still leave global emissions well above carbon sink capacity to absorb
• 60% reduction by 2020, 90% reduction by 2030 – probably needs to be greater
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Ratify Kyoto and push for a stronger treaty
• 90% emissions reductions by 2030• Rich countries to do more – repaying
ecological debt (not charity). Help poor countries to develop sustainably.
• Take in environmental refugees
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Cut emissions in every sector
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Eliminate inefficiency & waste
• Stop waste of materials and energy
• Reduce demand – more efficient design
• No inbuilt obsolescence
• Zero waste economy
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Say no to dirty fuel
• Phase out coal• No new coal
mines – revoke Anvil Hill licence
• No expansion of Newcastle’s export facilities
• No nukes!
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Yes to renewables!
Large scale renewables could start cutting greenhouse pollution in as little as 15-20 months (Ian Lowe, Reaction Time, Quarterly Essay 27, 2007)
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A new land use revolution
Go organic Save the forests
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Revolutionise transport
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Make the polluters pay
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Public ownership and democratic control
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Guarantee jobs, involve workers
Ensure participation and involvement of workers and communities affected by the transition to a sustainable economy
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Change the system, not the climate
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Useful references
• SA dossier on climate change http://www.socialist-alliance.org/resources/idb/AV%20Vol%207%20No%201.pdf
• Paul Baer and Michael Mastrandrea (High Stakes:Designing emissions pathways to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change) http://www.ippr.org/members/download.asp?f=%2Fecomm%2Ffiles%2Fhigh%5Fstakes%2Epdf
• www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/Avoidingcatastrophe.pdf
• The 2° target http://www.carbonequity.info/PDFs/2degree.pdf
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Authorised by D Nichols, 23 Abercrombie St, Chippendale NSW.