Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross ... · Climate Change Integrated...
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Climate change integrated assessment methodology for
cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe
Funded under the European Commission
Seventh Framework Programme
Contract Number: 244031
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Initial design of IA Platform Construction of meta-models
Workshop 1: Draft four socio-economic scenarios
Quantification of scenarios Feedback on design and functionality
Workshop 2: Enrich and expand scenarios
Revisit the quantification of scenarios Define adaptation options
Workshop 3: Test IA Platform with adaptation options
Explore impacts and adaptation responses
Final CLIMSAVE IA Platform
Stakeholder engagement process
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Participatory socio-economic scenarios
Europe Scotland
Surplus Deficit
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Cross-sectoral focus
Urban
Agriculture
Forests
Biodiversity
Water
Coasts
Competition for land
Competition for water
Impacts
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Ecosystem service indicators
Category Service Indicator
Provisioning Food Food production (TJ)
Raw materials Timber production (Mt)
Water Drinking water (mill m3)
Regulating Water Potential forest water
storage in soil (kg/ m3)
Flood Flood protection (ha)
Climate Potential forest carbon
balance (t/ha/an)
Pollination Presence/absence of
pollinator species
Cultural Recreation and
tourism
Skiing days (Days with
>10cms snow)
Aesthetic Naturalness
Sensitivity analysis
Explore how changing the baseline climate affects model results
Explore how changing the baseline socio-economic assumptions affects model results
Scenario analysis
See how impacts change for different scenarios
Select your: • Time period (2020s or 2050s) • IPCC Emissions scenario • Climate model (5) • Climate sensitivity (medium is default) • Socio-economic scenario
Socio-economic scenarios were developed by stakeholders during the CLIMSAVE project
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Illustrative results for the 2050s
Should I Stay GDP: -36% Popn: +23% Yld Tech: -3%
Riders on the storm GDP: +54% Popn: +16% Yld Tech: +26%
Should I Stay For to ag conversion: 18% For NPP: 299Mt
Change in food production:
Forest soil carbon balance:
Riders on the storm For to ag conversion: -5% For NPP: 614 Mt
Explore scenario uncertainty
Default slider positions developed by CLIMSAVE
stakeholders
Green (for “Go”) range is stakeholder-derived scenario
uncertainty
Yellow (for “Caution”) range to explore greater uncertainty
Red (for “Stop”)
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Adaptation screen
Marker shows setting from the Impacts screen
Difference between the marker and the slider represents the amount of adaptation
Moving to the adaptation screen fixes
the scenarios
Green range represents credible adaptation. This is a function of the scenario and the available
capital (human, social and manufactured)
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
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Number of vulnerable people in 2050s
Percentage of the European population vulnerable, relative to baseline, for
the six ecosystem service indices by socio-economic and climate scenario.
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Conclusions
• The CLIMSAVE IA Platform is an interactive exploratory web-based tool to enable a wide range of professional, academic and governmental stakeholders to improve their understanding surrounding impacts, adaptation responses and vulnerability under uncertain futures.
• Its holistic framework (cross-sectoral, climate and socio-economic change) is intended to complement, rather than replace, the use of more detailed sectoral tools used for local predictions.
• It is intended to assist stakeholders and researchers in developing their capacity to understand the interactions between different sectors, rather than viewing sectors in isolation.
Funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union
Contract Number: 603416
Impacts and Risks from High-End Scenarios: Strategies for Innovative
Solutions
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IMPRESSIONS Concept
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Stakeholder engagement
• Undertake a survey of key decision-makers in each case study to better understand their knowledge needs for incorporating uncertain scientific evidence in the development of adaptation policy and practice.
• Engage stakeholders through a series of 3 workshops in each case study, supplemented by online engagement, in defining:
– socio-economic scenarios; – adaptation and mitigation
pathways; – innovative policy strategies.
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Integrated scenarios
• Develop a coherent set of multi-scale, integrated climate and socio-economic scenarios covering the 5 case studies.
• The scenarios will include high-end climate change (building on the IPCC 5th Assessment Report) and embed potential climate and socio-economic tipping points:
– Socio-economic scenarios: meta-analysis of existing scenarios plus participatory workshops.
– Climate scenarios: CMIP5/ CORDEX plus new runs (possibly 3 and 6oC)
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• Develop a multi-scale modelling framework that specifies the cascade of boundary conditions and enables comparison of impacts and adaptation results across scales:
– Variety of different methods and models (Global Integrated Assessment
Models, CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform, process-based models, agent-
based models and mixed qualitative-quantitative participatory methods).
– Strong focus on improving the representation of (i) the adaptation process; and (ii) cross-sectoral interactions.
Impacts and adaptation modelling
Global EuropeanRegional/local case studies
Scotland Iberia HungaryAgriculture √ [√] √ [√]Forestry [√] [√] [√]Biodiversity √ √ √ √Water √ √ √ [√] √Coasts √ √Urban √ √ √ √Tourism √ √Health √ [√] [√]Energy [√]
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• Assess the robustness of current policies and strategies within the case studies to high-end scenarios.
• Develop adaptation and mitigation pathways for evaluating the time- and path-dependency of adaptation and mitigation options.
Integrated solutions
• Formulate mechanisms that connect and foster synergies between the adaptation and mitigation pathways.
• Synthesise project results and use to explore new policy approaches for adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development with stakeholders.
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IMPRESSIONS main outcomes
• A more thorough understanding of stakeholder needs for increasing the robustness of decisions in response to high-end climate change scenarios.
• A set of integrated high-end climate and socio-economic scenarios covering global, European and regional/local scales.
• Improved quantification of cross-sectoral impacts and risks associated with high-end scenarios along with consideration of their uncertainties.
• Advances in how adaptation is modelled through representation of associated constraints, triggers, time lags and consequences.
• A set of pathways that offer options for harmonising adaptation and mitigation strategies to enable society to adapt effectively to potential impacts under high-end scenarios and across multiple scales.
• Assessment of the robustness of policies and the need for transformative strategies to deal with high-end scenarios.
• An Information Hub to make the projects findings accessible and enhance stakeholders’ capacity to take up the project’s recommendations.
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Thank you!
• CLIMSAVE IAP available from www.climsave.eu or Climate-ADAPT (http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/climsave-tool).
• More information on IMPRESSIONS available from:
www.impressions.project.eu
? Questions you would like us to consider addressing
in IMPRESSIONS ?