Climate Change in the Kawarthas

Part One

Overview • a growing personal awareness that the usual dates of events in nature are changing (e.g., bird migration dates, leaf-out & flowering dates, freeze-up, consistent snow cover)• a steady decline in once-abundant species such as Monarchs, swallows, nighthawks, snakes, bats, etc. • a growing sense of loss • frustration that climate change story is not really being told (e.g., weather reports)• lack of action to address the problem, especially on the part of the federal government, both Liberals and Conservatives So,…. I want people to know how climate change is and will affect how we experience nature through the changing seasons in the Kawarthas –birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fish, invertebrates, plants, and weather Unfortunately, it’s a rather sobering picture.

Climate Change in a nutshell • In the atmosphere, sunlight is absorbed by the Earth's surface and that energy is

radiated as heat (infrared energy) back toward space. Most of that heat doesn't make it to space, because it gets absorbed by certain gases in the atmosphere, mainly water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane. Normally, this is a good thing because it keeps our planet warm.

• However, if extra carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere (mostly by man), then extra heat is trapped, and the atmosphere gets warmer than it used to be

• A warmer atmosphere can hold more water; warmer oceans = more evaporation• We are seeing more extreme storms, more severe droughts, deadly heat waves,

rising sea levels, and more acidic oceans, which can affect the very base of the food chain. Mass extinctions (20 to 50% of all species) are forecasted for this century.

• The warming is known by numerous names: global warming, climate change, climate weirding and, increasingly, climate disruption

• 97% of 1,372 of the world’s most active climate researchers (whose work has been reviewed by National Academy of Science in the U.S.) blame human activity for climate change

Climate Change by the numbers

• CO2 levels in the atmosphere reached 400 ppm in May. The last time it was this high was at least 3.2 million years ago. 350 ppm is considered the highest “safe” level.

• In Peterborough 21 of the past 24 months have been warmer than the 1971 – 2000 average• For Canada as a whole, 2010 was the warmest year on record since records began • 2010 was the wettest year on record worldwide• 2001 to 2010 was warmest decade ever world-wide and floods were the most frequently

experienced extreme event in the decade• 2012 was Southern Ontario’s warmest winter ever• Ice coverage on the Great Lakes has decreased by 70% since the 1970s.• In past 65 years, Canadian winters have warmed by 3.2 C (twice global rate) • Increasingly severe wind storms and floods locally (Peterborough Flood of 2004; F0 tornado

in Galway, Cavendish & Harvey Township in 2006, Toronto deluge of July 2013)• Insurance claims for water, hail and wind damage have soared in the past 10 years • “Connect the dots between fossil fuels and severe weather events, such as the recent Alberta

floods, Quebec’s wildfires and Monday’s flash floods in Toronto, where rainfall shattered all one-day records. This is what climate change looks like in Canada.” Letter to the Editor, The Globe and Mail, July 10, 2013

WINTER Climate change is being felt most acutely in late fall, winter & early spring

Average winter temperatures predicted to rise from 3 - 7 C this century. Already 6 C warmer than average in winters of 2012 & 2013

Impact on hibernating frogs *

Wood Frogs overwinter in the leaf litter and essentially freeze solid. Increased freeze and thaw episodes disrupt hibernation and consume valuable energy.

Chorus Frogs, too, overwinter in the leaf litter.

Changes in bird populations in the Kawarthas * Thanks to milder winters, “southern

birds” have increased in number and have expanded their range northwards in Ontario compared to 20 years ago.

Red-bellied Woodpecker Wild Turkey House Finch

Northern Mockingbird

Tufted Titmouse

White-tailed Deer should continue to thrive *

• Winter survival will be easier as food will be more accessible and there will be less snow cover• Moose, however, may be forced further northward as deer populations increase (brainworm parasite)

Less winter mortality for insects

House Mosquito (Culex pipiens)

Black-legged Tick

Milder temperatures are allowing more insects to successfully overwinter.

•Possibly explains the increase in West Nile disease in 2012. Worst year ever in U.S.

• Lyme disease is present along Lake Erie and Lake Ontario as Black-legged Ticks are now able to overwinter in Ontario. Will have spread over all of Southern Ontario by 2020.

• Insects in general – including pests - should thrive in a warming climate and have more lifecycles.

Late winter is mating time for many mammals * Generalists mammals like skunks and raccoons are

also expected to prosper in a warmer climate.

Virginia Opossums, a southern species, are already extending their range into the Kawarthas as winters become warmer.

SPRING • Earlier and warmer springs are being predicted March 2012 saw:• Frogs calling four weeks early• Mourning Doves beginning to nest• Flower buds on apple trees opening a month early. Many flowers were killed by April frosts, resulting in an 80% loss in Ontario’s apple production. • Ice-out on March 20, a full month earlier than the long-term average

Some short-distance migrants are, on average, returning earlier as spring becomes earlier

Common Merganser

American Robin

Great Blue Heron Hooded Merganser

Red-winged Blackbird

Mating season continues * Early spring is mating season for mammals with a short gestation period * With warmer winters, Southern Flying Squirrels are moving north and some are mating with Northern Flying Squirrels, a different species * Akin to Polar Bears and Grizzly Bears mating•Hybrid squirrels are becoming increasingly common• Being explained as an effect of climate change (Trent University/MNR study)

Maple sap is running Syrup production in NE U.S. is suffering from climate change

and too few cycles of mild days and cold nights

Nesting season begins

- earlier springs are resulting in an earlier start to the nesting season for resident birds & short-distance migrants- these species should be able to breed earlier and raise more young- One large-scale study showed that birds are laying eggs up at an average rate of 6.6 days earlier per decade

Mourning Dove

A new challenge for tropical migrants -Migration arrival time has evolved to coincide with peak invertebrate numbers in mid-May through late June. - Warmer springs will mean invertebrates hatch out earlier- Won’t be as much food available, hence fewer young - Already happening in Europe- Evolution doesn’t work fast enough for tropical migrants to simply readjust their timing and arrive back on the breeding grounds earlier. - It is estimated that evolution would need to occur 10,000 times faster than in the past for birds & other vertebrates to adapt to the rapid climate change expected in the next 100 years

Wood Thrush

The frog chorus hits full stride

Climate Change at work Spring Peeper “peep, peep,…” repeated 1x/sec.

• Peak calling period of early breeders is now 10 – 20 days earlier than in 1995. These include Spring Peepers, Wood Frogs, Chorus Frogs and Northern Leopard Frogs (MNR study published in Herpetological Conservation and Biology, 2012)

• Eggs are laid in vernal ponds which are temporary bodies of water. Drier summers may mean that these ponds may dry up before the young frogs and salamanders have had the time to develop to the adult stage

Salamanders are mating earlier, too.

Chorus Frog “like a nail drawn over a comb”

Walleye are spawning Climate change is expected to favour warm water species, such as

bass and sunfish, over cool water species, like Walleye. We can expect a northward shift in the location of the walleye fishery.

Migratory butterflies arrive -Unprecedented numbers (300 million plus) of Red Admirals arrived in spring of 2012 - was due to conditions in Texas where abundant rain followed a devastating drought (climate change?) - all predatory insects were killed off by the drought - with the rains, wildflowers were abundant and huge reproduction success - wave after wave came north out of Texas from April through May - arrived too early to reproduce here since nettles, their host plant, had not yet emerged- Monarchs arrived early, too, in some areas before milkweed were up. Poor reproductive success.

Red Admirals feeding on tree sap

April is a month of tree flowers Flower buds on Trembling Aspens now opening 2 weeks earlier (University of Alberta)

Red MapleCarolina Poplar

Speckled Alder

Silver Maple

A dusting of pollen descends from the skies

With climate change, tree pollen is emerging roughly two weeks earlier in the spring in much of North America. Pollen counts are expected to more than double by 2040. Many people are experiencing more serious allergy symptoms .

Spring ephemeral wildflowers bloom In recent years, peak bloom has been two to three weeks earlier than normal

Red Trillium

Jack in the Pulpit

White Trillium

Wild Columbine