Kim Holmén

International Director

Norwegian Polar Institute

holmen@npolar.no

Climate Change in Svalbard

Kim Holmén. page 2

Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

Kim Holmén. page 3

Svalbard:

Norwegian Arctic

Kim Holmén. page 5

-13.1 Sv

11.5 Sv

1.6 Sv

Barentsburg

Hornsund

Ny-Ålesund

Longyearbyen

SVALBARD

~60,000 km2

~60% glaciers

CLIMATE CHANGE ?• Detection

– Is climate changing?– Are these changes unique?

• Attribution– What is causing the changes?

• Natural variation (Sun, volcanoes, etc.)• Greenhouse gases released by humankind• Other human induced changes

• Future change– Models

• Effects of climate change– Ecosystems– Society

• Agriculture• Infrastructure

– Combined effects

Kim Holmén. page 8

Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

Kim Holmén. page 9

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/animations/

Kim Holmén. page 10

Geographical pattern of surface warming

Projected surface temperature changes for the late 21st century (2090-2099). The map shows the multi-AOGCM average projection for the A1B SRES scenario. All temperatures are relative to the period 1980-1999.

Kim Holmén. page 12

Sea surface temperatureDecember 8, 2014

yr.no

Kim Holmén. page 13

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/very-little-old-sea-ice-remains-arctic

Kim Holmén. page 17

What is changing in theArctic Sea Ice System?• Ice extent• Ice dynamics and

distribution• Sea ice thickness

Hopen max. seas. ice thickness ( drillings)

Gerland et al. 2008 GRL

Fram Strait icethickness (ULS)

POLAR BEAR

Kim Holmén. page 21

Other drivers…

Aftenposten, January 19, 2013

WOLF

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Grey Wolf

Wikimedia commons

Kim Holmén. page 25

NARWHAL

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Narwhal

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Svalbard:

Norwegian Arctic

Photo: Kit Kovacs and Christian Lydersen

Thanks for your attention !

Thanks for your attention !

Thanks for your attention !WALRUS