Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and Perceptions– Ethics and issues surrounding geo-engineering...
Transcript of Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and Perceptions– Ethics and issues surrounding geo-engineering...
Climate Change: Impacts,
Solutions, and Perceptions OLLI January 2013
• January 7 • The discovery of global warming - a history of climate change. • James Fleming, Colby College History Department
• January 14
• What is the state of the climate today? • Deke Arndt, Chief, Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA National Climatic
Data Center
January 21 – What is the difference between “weather" and "climate"? – Dr. Wayne Higgins, Director, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
• January 28 – How global climate change impacts the United States – Anthony C. Janetos, Director, Joint Global Change Research Institute
(Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland)
Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and
Perceptions – Fall 2012 (part 1)
• February 19 – Ocean acidification and the increase of greenhouse gases. – Dr. Christopher L. Sabine, Oceanographer, NOAA Pacific Marine
National Laboratory, Seattle
• February 26 – America’s choices for mitigation of climate change impacts – Robert W. Fri, Resources for the Future and Claudia Mengelt, National
Research Council (NAS)
• March 5 – Ethics and issues surrounding geo-engineering as a strategy to
mitigate climate change – Dr. Michael MacCracken, Climate Institute, Washington, D.C.
• March 12 – American attitudes and opinions on global warming – Dr. Matthew Nisbit, American University, School of Communication
Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and
Perceptions – Spring 2013 (part 2)
Climate Change: OLLI Jan. 2012
Ocean Currents and Atmospheric Oscillations: Causes or Results?
From Pew Center on Global Climate Change
Figure 2: Land, atmosphere, and ice heating (red), 0-700 meter OHC increase (light blue), 700-2,000 meter OHC increase (dark
blue). From Nuccitelli et al. (2012).
Warming the Oceans
• Oceans have absorbed 80% of the heat and 30-40% of excess CO2 over last ~100 years; effects will last for ~1,000 years
• *Alters circulation and atmospheric pressure
• Reduced CO2uptake (still increasing) and oxygen content
• Higher sea level from decreased density
• Massive biodiversity (threshold) changes as ocean warms more (ex. coral mortality, polar bear extinction, further fisheries depletion, reduction in coastal wetlands)
• *1979-2012 Arctic ice cover shrunk 50%
• Conduit for warm water melting of ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica)
Warm surface current- Less Dense Cold deep water current–More Dense Salty water anywhere- More Dense
Thermohaline Currents (THC)
“Conveyor Belt of Heat’
Image from Windows to the Universe
A Little More THC
Complexity
Arctic sea ice
minimum now at
lowest point since
satellite monitoring
from 1979 at -50%
(NASA)
http://bcove.me/gjl6e8ot for video of loss 1979-2012
Bering Strait
Importance of the
Bering Strait to Ocean
Circulation and World
Climate
Graphics from Univ. of Washington
Possible
Effects of
Changing
Circulation
USGCRP 2009
Permafrost melt
Warm surface current- Less Dense Cold deep water current–More Dense Salty water anywhere- More Dense
Thermohaline Currents (THC)
Scenario for THC Alteration –
More Flow Through Bering Strait
by 2050
cooler No. Atl. = wetter SW US
El Niño Winter of 2009-2010
Photos from LAT; graphic from EOS – AGU, Dec. 2009
Graphic buy John F. Henz, JPL
El Niño –
warmer
eastern
ocean, more
stormy
across US,
raises sea
level from
warmer
water, less
productivity
La Niña –
cooler eastern
ocean, less
storm
intensity, drier
US. Lower
sea level,
more
productivity
Atmospheric Oscillations – ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_ncom/glb8_3b/html/anims/eqp/sst30d.gif
Source: Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey
El Niño
Modoki
Index*
From: Japanese Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Region 3
~2012
Pinatubo
What Does
Future Hold for
El Niño with a
Warming
Climate?
Vecchi et al., 2010
La
Niña
La
Niña
El
Niño
El
Niño
El
Niño
(El Niño year) (LaNina year)
Courtesy of Keith Moore, UCI ESS
Atmospheric Oscillations – PDO
(Pacific “Decadal” Oscillation)
Little Ice Age 1400-1800; Medieval Warm Period
800-1300
“Atmospheric Rivers”
From American Geophysical Union, 2011 and Scripps (Jan. 1988 photo)
Oct. 2009
Atmospheric Oscillations – AO
(Arctic Oscillation)
Mallorca Spain Wash., D.C.
Romania
Negative Phase = high Arctic
pressure, surges of cold air south
and warm air north
Positive Phase = low Arctic pressure,
stable jet stream that keeps cold air
around Arctic
Source: NOAA
H.C.Greene, Scientif. Am., Nov. 2012
Updates to GWU-OLLI/NOAA DVD #3
• World population today at 7.06B (U.S. at 325M)
• CO2 leader with 2010 US Dept. of Energy numbers
• In Total: China 23.5%, US 18.3%, EU 27 countries
14%, India 5.8%
• Per Capita: Saudi Arabia, US, Australia, Canada
• World Economic Forum’s Global Risks for 2013 Report
out Jan. 8th – top 5 risks
• #1 and 2 were economic dealing with wealthy-poor
differences
• #3 rising GHG emissions
• #4 water supply crises
• #5 mismanagement of aging population
• report at http://www.weforum.org
1947
2009
What Large-Scale Phenomenon Could Disturb the Ocean THC?
El Niño – warm eastern
Pacific
La Niña – cool eastern
Pacific
ENSO – El Niño
Southern Oscillation
(atmosph. pressure)
Courtesy of Francois Primeau, UCI ESS
La Niña
El Niño
Figure 1: Total Earth Heat Content anomaly from 1950 (Murphy 2009). Ocean data taken from Domingues et al 2008. Land + Atmosphere
includes the heat absorbed to melt ice.
Link > http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=u_0JZRIHFtk