Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in 2050: An application of the GEOSHARE AgMIP Tool
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Transcript of Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in 2050: An application of the GEOSHARE AgMIP Tool
![Page 1: Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in 2050: An application of the GEOSHARE AgMIP Tool](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042822/56812cd8550346895d91954b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in 2050:
An application of the GEOSHARE AgMIP Tool
Uris Baldos
Purdue University
September 2014
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SIMPLE: An example of an economic model of agriculturea Simplified International Model of Prices, Land use and the Environment (Baldos & Hertel, 2013)
Input Substitution
InputPrices
DemandResponse
Global Crop
Market
Per Capita
Demand
Population
( , )P i y
Land RentResponse
Non Land PriceResponse
( )LAND g
NLAND
Food Consumption
Income per capita
Land Inputs
Non Land Inputs
Global Crop Price
( , )INC i y
CROP
Crop Productivity
Growth
GlobalBiofuel Use
FoodPrices
Demand
Supply
Food Security
Outcomes
Climate: Temp, Precip
& CO2
![Page 3: Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in 2050: An application of the GEOSHARE AgMIP Tool](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042822/56812cd8550346895d91954b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
“Comprehensive” Approach
-Step by step calculation of productivity shocks due to climate change using GCM outputs and crop models
-Highly resource intensive (time, personnel, expertise etc…)
“Quick-fix” Approach-Rely on published
productivity impacts (World Bank; IFPRI; journals, etc…)
-Original data might not be compatible with own model (limited regions, crop coverage, crop models, GCMs)
Deriving climate change impacts for future projections
GEOSHARE AgMIP Tool-Quick access to AgMIP
archives of gridded crop yield outcomes on different climate change scenarios
-Easily aggregate productivity impacts from grid-cell to user specified aggregation
Yield impacts due to
Climate Change
![Page 4: Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in 2050: An application of the GEOSHARE AgMIP Tool](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042822/56812cd8550346895d91954b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Using the AgMIP Tool: a ‘SIMPLE’ Application
1. Design scenarios via AgMIP tools:– Crop Model: PEGASUS– GCMs: MIROC-ESM-CHEM, GFDL-ESM2M– Other options:
• No CO2 fert. / RCP8p5: ‘Pessimist’• CO2 fert. / RCP2p6: ‘Optimist’
2. Aggregate grid-cell yield changes and apply shocks in a global model of agriculture (SIMPLE)
3. Examine changes in crop prices, caloric consumption as well as caloric malnutrition headcount in 2050
All done in less than one hour!!!
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Selected Food Security Results:
Food Consumption Malnutrition Count
“Optimist”: Lowest RCP (2.6) + CO2 fertilization“Pessimist”: Highest RCP (8.5) + no CO2 fertilization
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Yield impacts due to
Climate Change
“Comprehensive” Approach
-Step by step calculation of productivity shocks due to climate change using GCM outputs and crop models
-Highly resource intensive (time, personnel, expertise etc…)
“Quick-fix” Approach-Rely on published
productivity impacts (World Bank; IFPRI; journals, etc…)
-Original data might not be compatible with own model (limited regions, crop coverage, crop models, GCMs)
GEOSHARE AgMIP Tool is a key source of gridded climate change yield impacts
GEOSHARE AgMIP Tool-Quick access to AgMIP
archives of gridded crop yield outcomes on different climate change scenarios
-Easily aggregate productivity impacts from grid-cell to user specified aggregation
![Page 7: Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in 2050: An application of the GEOSHARE AgMIP Tool](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042822/56812cd8550346895d91954b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Thank you!(see poster for additional details)
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Nutritional Outcomes in SIMPLE
Caloric Distribution: 2006
Caloric Distribution: 2050
Minimum Dietary Energy Requirement
Caloric Distribution: 2050
Caloric Distribution: 2050 + CC “Pessimist”
Minimum Dietary Energy Requirement
Caloric Distribution: 2050 + CC “Optimist”
Increase in average caloric consumption = shifts distribution to the right
Lower incidence of caloric malnutrition
Climate change impacts shifts caloric distribution