Climate Change Impacts in Vietnam: Potential for Agricultural Mitigation
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Transcript of Climate Change Impacts in Vietnam: Potential for Agricultural Mitigation
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN VIETNAM:POTENTIAL FOR AGRICULTURAL MITIGATION
Claudia RinglerInternational Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Washington, DC
Hanoi, May 3, 2010
POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
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• Vietnam is expected to be particularly hard hit by climate change – due to its tropical location, long coastal line, and mega deltas
• Climate change impacts on agriculture are channeled through changes in (inter-annual and intra-annual) precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2concentration, and sea level rise (inundation and salinity intrusion)
• Climate impacts affect hydrology, runoff, and thus water availability for irrigation and other uses
• Adverse impacts of climate change can affect economic growth, poverty and malnutrition
SELECTION OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS:Moisture Index for GCM Climate Projection in 2050
Drier Wetter
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
Average Clim
ate Moisture Index
Driest scenario: IPSL-CM4; wettest scenario: GISS-ER MONRE scenario is the Vietnamese government official climate change
scenario for A2 Sea level rise scenario: 17 cm by 2030, 30 cm by 2050 2030 (2016-45); 2050 (2036-2065)
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOSMean Annual Temperature Changes by AEZ (oC)
Mean Annual Precipitation Changes by AEZ (%)
-50
0
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100
150
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Red River Basin - 2030
IPSL
GISS
MONRE
-50
0
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150
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Red River Basin - 2050
IPSL
GISS
MONRE
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mekong Delta Inflow Changes - 2030
IPSL
GISS
HadCM3
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mekong Delta Inflow Changes - 2050
IPSL
GISS
HadCM3
Red River Basin: Decreased wet-season flow under IPSL, increased dry season flow under GISS and MONRE
Mekong Delta: Major flow reduction under IPSL
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS% Basin Runoff Changes
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCrop Production Changes (%)
IAE 2009
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
o Without CO2 fertilization, production declines for all crops and scenarios studied; with CO2fertilization, MONRE scenario has production increases for all crops, while production of IPSL and GISS decline
o Without CO2 fertilization, rice production losses range from 2.1 to 6.4 million ton per year in 2030, and 3.4 to 6.7 million ton in 2050
o Sea level rise along can cause about 2.7 million ton rice production loss in 2050, in the Mekong Delta
KEY ADAPTATION METHODS
o Irrigation expansion and water savings in rice and other crops
o Increased investment in agricultural research
o Change of planting dates/crop varieties
o Enhanced soil fertility management
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONAg. Research & Extension
Still room for increase in agricultural productivity
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Rice
Maize
Cassava
Coffee
Sweet potato
Soybean
Yield Index (Historical Yield Growth)
OTHER ADAPTATION OPTIONSShifting Planting Dates
Winter-spring Rice Planting Area in Red River Delta
IFAD-IFPRI PARTNERSHIP ON CLIMATE CHANGEMITIGATION ACTIVITIES AND SMALL FARMERS
Objective: connect small farmers with markets that reward climate change mitigation practices
Four countries: Morocco, Ghana, Mozambique, Vietnam
Our objective is to do for agriculture what people have successfully done for forestry: several projects are already receiving money from both regulated and voluntary markets
CHALLENGES
Lack of previous experience (exception Kenya)
“Technical” uncertainties:o amount of carbon that can be sequestered
o best methods to store it in the ground
o length of time it can be stored
Workable solutions are needed to attract investors
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
Activity 1: Current carbon market activitiesReview and assessment of current activities related to carbon markets in the country. Forestry mitigation and adaptation that contribute to mitigation will be included, but will not be the focus.
Activity 2: Review and analysis of institutional structuresAssess current policies and institutions affecting access of the rural poor to carbon markets. Institutions will include the potential of various supply chains, producers of high value export crops, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and farmer organizations as aggregators and disseminators of management system changes and measurement technologies
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
Activity 3: Assessment of climate change mitigation potentialThe third activity focuses on quantifying the mitigation potential. Agricultural mitigation potential will be quantified by agricultural sub-sector, location, and mitigation activity (including both reduction of emissions and carbon sequestration) regardless of costs and benefits.
Activity 4: Cost-benefit analysis of mitigation alternativesActivity 3 will be followed by an estimation of costs and benefits of the various mitigation activities. High -impact areas will be identified combining high mitigation potential with high poverty.
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES Activity 5: Pilot study
A pilot study for testing agricultural mitigation activities and testing of Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) techniques on the ground will be initiated in 2010. The field case study will include: consultations with officials and farmers at local case study sites, the implementation of a carbon baseline inventory of the study site, the development of technical factors relating agricultural activities with carbon savings, the testing of MRV, and the training of individuals for assessment and reporting
The climate change component will also continue to provide technical assistance to the activities of Capacity Strengthening and Knowledge Management throughout 2010. Outreach materials will be prepared in 2011