Climate Change Impacts in Pennsylvania Brent Yarnal Department of Geography Penn State University.
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Transcript of Climate Change Impacts in Pennsylvania Brent Yarnal Department of Geography Penn State University.
Climate Change Impacts in Pennsylvania
Brent YarnalDepartment of Geography
Penn State University
Overview
Supporting science Present & future climate
context Key climate impacts Some affected sectors
www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/pa
October 2008
2000
US National Assessment of Climate Change Impacts Union of Concerned
Scientists
http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v14/n3/
Climate is changing across PA
In the 20th century: Temperature increased 0.5°F Rainfall increased 5-20%
Since 1970: Temperature increased ~0.15°F
per decade Annual days over 90°F increased Winter snowpack decreased
(c) Brian A. Morganti / www.stormeffects.com
Source: IPCC 2001
HIGHER
A1FI (940 ppm)
LOWER
B1 (550 ppm)
Further warming depends on emissions
Current global emissionsRecent emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
20062005
2007
Key climate changes Higher temperatures More extreme heat More precipitation More severe storms More floods More droughts
2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099
Temperature change above 1961-1990 average
Projected temperature changes for PA
Changes in average summer heat index
Changes in average summer heat index
In the next several decades: Doubling in days over 90°F in
southern PA
By mid-century: 50 days per year over 90°F in
southern PA
By late century: Entire summer with highs over 90°F
in southern PA
Days with extreme heat
Precipitation 20th century
Annual average precipitation rose 15% (6 inches)
Future projections Trend continues under either
emission scenario
Spring rainfall under thehigher-emissions scenario
Hotter summers mean more evaporation, less soil moisture
Droughts projected every 1-2 years in many areas
Summer drought
Key sectors affected by climate change
Agriculture Forestry Water & water resources Ecosystems Human health Recreation
New opportunities
New risks & costs
iStockphoto.com/Kalulu
Agriculture & climate change
iStockphoto.com/lissart
©iStockphoto.com/Bronwyn8
Crops vulnerable to rising temperature
iStockphoto.com/claylib
USDA NRCS
Milk production declines in higher-emissions future
Forests
Forests migrate Productivity increases
Dominant forest types for a doubling of CO2
Black Cherry
Lower emissions: 50% of habitat lost
Higher emissions: 80% of habitat lost
Ecosystems
Weakened ecosystems at risk
Ecosystem functions impaired
Biodiversity decrease
Bird habitat
25% reductions in forest habitat for Ruffed grouse American goldfinch White throated sparrow
iStockphoto.com/Flatcoater
iStockphoto.com/BirdImages
Jupiter Images
Water & water resources
Uncertain water quantity
Seasonal shift in streamflow
Increased intense rainfall
Decreased water quality
Projected changes in Susquehanna River flow
Human health
Heat mortality increase Water-borne disease
increase Vector-borne disease
increase
Extreme heat – Harrisburg
Pollen allergens
Higher temperatures + higher CO2 levels more pollen allergen production
American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology
Jupiter Images
Tony Tremblay
James Estrin/The New York Times/Redux
Air quality
Impacts on winter recreation
Loss of ski industry Loss of snowmobiling
iStockphoto.com/MentalArt
Snow cover
Geoff Kuchera
Snowmobiling
iStockphoto.com/N8K