Climate change impact on groundwater resources of lahore by using swat model
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Transcript of Climate change impact on groundwater resources of lahore by using swat model
Climate Change Impact on Groundwater Resources of Lahore by using SWAT
MODEL
By
Sadam Hussain
Iqra Muzaffar
Under the supervision of
Prof. Dr. Ifthikhar Ahmad
Ms. Zaib-un-Nisa
A Thesis submitted for the Partial Fulfillment
of the requirement for the degree of
Master in Applied Hydrology
College of Earth & Environmental Science,
University of the Punjab, Lahore
Session 2013-2015
Dedication
We dedicate our thesis to our beloved parents and respected teachers
epecially to Ms ZAIB.
Certificate of Approval
This thesis by Sadam Hussain & Iqra Muzaffar is hereby approved for submission to the University of the Punjab, Lahore for the partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master in Applied Hydrology.
Prof. Dr. Firdous-e-Bareen Prof. Dr.IftikharAhmadPrincipal ProfessorCollege of Earth and College of Earth and Environmental Sciences. Environmental Sciences, Quaid-e-Azam Campus, Quaid-e-Azam Campus, University of the Punjab, Lahore University of Punjab Lahore
Ms Zaib-un-Nisa Lecturer College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Quaid-e-Azam Campus, University of the Punjab, Lahore
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
All Praises for ALLAH ALMIGHTY, the most beneficent and most merciful. The
source of all knowledge that guides us in darkness and help in difficulties. He bestowed us with a
potential and ability to contribute a little knowledge to mankind.
We thank to our beloved Holy Prophet (peace be upon him) who gave us ALLAH’s
message in the form of Quran that guide us in each and every way of life.
We wish to express our heartiest gratitude to Prof.Dr Firdous-e- Bareen, Principal
College of College of Earth and Environmental Sciences for her invaluable support.
We gratefully acknowledgment our profound, cordial, and sincere thanks to our respected
and honorable teacher and supervisor Dr.Iftikhar and Miss Zaib-un-Nisa for permitting us to do
our M.Sc. research work on our requested topic. We feel a great honor to work under their
supervision their guidance made possible completion of this thesis.
We would like to thank all the officials and staff of CEES, for their help and support
during our thesis.
Acknowledge would not be complete unless we acknowledge our family members,
especially our parents, sisters and brother who encouraged us taking pledge and we mustered up
the focus of finding facts as ALLAH says ,” There are signs for those who thank and
understand.”
Sadam Hussain
Iqra Muzaffar
CLIMATE IMPACT ON GROUNDWATER REaSOURCES
Abstract
Pakistan is a developing country and its population is, according to World Bank (2013),
182.1 million from which about 76% of total population lives in the rural areas. The most of the
economy based on agriculture. Hydrologic cycle is conceptually represented by hydrologic
models. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological model which spatially
distributed and continuous time.
Lahore is subject to adversely affected by climate change on groundwater resources. The
global warming since 1990’s has decreased the annual precipitation and winter precipitation. The
impact of the change in climate in ground water resources is evaluated in the Lahore.
Hydrological modeling was organized with SWAT model which was calibrated and validated
successfully. According to the simulation results, almost all the water budgets components have
decreased. SWAT was able to allocate less land use water because of the decrease of overall
water due to climate change. He simulation results show an increase of water stressed days and
temperature stressed days. The results indicate that lack of water is expected to be a problem in
future.
A set of programmable mapping component MapWindow GIS is used which is an open
source, GIS based mapping application. It is SWAT used spatially distributed information on
elevation, land use, slope and soil. Soil-check is used which have climate information to obtain
results. 8-years data is used for warm-up model and rest of the 16-years data is used to run
model. SWAT cup is used for the validation and simulation of the results. By the use of
improved results, climate change scenarios could be run for future management changes and
their impact on ground water resources quantified.
Chapter One Introduction
Chapter One
INTRODUCTION
1.1. Pakistan
Pakistan is a sovereign country in South Asia with a population exceeding 180
million people. It is sixth most populous country with an area covering 796,096 km2, ,it is
the 36th largest country in the world in terms of area. Pakistan has a 1,046-kilometre
(650 mi) coastline along the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman in the south and is
bordered by the nations of India to the east, Afghanistan to the west, Iran to the southwest
and China in the far northeast respectively. It is separated from Tajikistan by
Afghanistan's narrow Wakhan Corridor in the north, and also shares marine
border with Oman.
The administrative units of Pakistan consist of four provinces, one federal
capital territory, two autonomous and disputed territories and a group of federally
administered tribal areas
Province:
Punjab
Sindh
Baluchistan
Khyber pakhtunkhwa
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Chapter One Introduction
2
Chapter One Introduction
Fig:1.1 Pakistan Map
1.2. Punjab
Punjab is the most populous province of Pakistan with approximately 56% of the
country's total population. Punjab is Pakistan's second largest province in terms of Land
area at 205,344 km2 (79,284 sq mi) after Baluchistan and is located at the north western
edge of the geologic Indian plate in South Asia. The province is bordered
by Kashmir (Azad Kashmir, Pakistan and Jammu and Kashmir, India) to the north-east,
the Indian states of Punjab and Rajasthan to the east, the Pakistani province of Sindh to
the south, the province of Baluchistan to the southwest, the province of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa to the west, and the Islamabad Capital Territory to the north.
The capital and largest city is Lahore which was the historical capital of the wider
Punjab region. Undivided Punjab is home to six rivers, of which five flows through
Pakistani Punjab. From west to east, these are: the Indus, Jhelum, Beas, Ravi and Sutlej.
Nearly 60% of Pakistan's population lives in the Punjab.
1.3. Lahore
Lahore is the capital city of the Pakistani province of Punjab, the second largest
metropolitan area in the country and an important historical center in South Asia.
Lahore has a semi-arid climate.
3
Chapter One Introduction
1.4. Population of Lahore
According to the 1998 census, Lahore's population was 5.143 Million. An
estimate in July 2014 put the population of the Lahore agglomeration at 7,566,000. [2] It is
considered to be one of the 35 largest cities of the world.
1.5. Walled city Lahore
The origins of the original Lahore are unspecific. According to carbon dating
evidence of archaeological findings in the Lahore Fort, the time period may start as early
as 2,000 BCE. Lahore had many names throughout its history. Mohallah Maulian
represents one of the two most probable sites of the original Lahore. Sootar Mandi (the
yarn market) inside Lohari Gate, had been called Mohallah Chaileywala Hammam
located in Machli Hatta Gulzar, just off Chowk Chalka. As late as 1864, the Lohari
Mandi area had been known among the old folk of the Walled City as kacha kot, the mud
fort, a name derived from gradient of the land, the water flow, and the formation of
mohallahs, kuchas, and kattrahs. The curve of Koocha Pir Bola merges with Waachowali
Bazaar, the Lohari Bazaar merges with Chowk Lohari Mandi, and Chowk Mati merges
with Papar Mandi, giving a sense of a mud fort. Along Lohari Bazaar, a short distance
from Chowk Chakla, the street opens slightly, revealing a half-buried archway of pucca
bricks and mud
The famous mud fort may have been built by Malik Ayaz, the first Muslim
governor of Lahore. Lohari Gate served as the main entrance to Ayaz's mud fort. Chowk
Sootar Mandi constituted one important center of Kacha Kot. The lay of the streets also
suggest the boundaries. At the time of Mughal Emperor Akbar, the original wall of the
Walled City of Lahore stood, on the western side, to the right of Bazaar Hakeeman in
Bhati Gate. On the eastern side to the left of Shahalam Gate, curved eastwards and
formed a "kidney-shaped" city that depended on the flow of the curving River Ravi. Thus
the Lahore of the kacha kot era has continued to expand in three major leaps of
expansion, each with an almost 400-year gap. The eras of Raja Jaipal of Akbar and of
Maharaja Ranjit Singh mark the high points of that expansion.
The expanding of the mud fort had its origins in three factors:
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Chapter One Introduction
the way the Ravi has flown and how and when it has been changing its
course,
the existence of the Lahore Fort and how power has flowed from the
rulers, and
the manner the population and economy of the old original Walled City
has changed over time, grown, or even shrunk, depending of invasions, droughts and
famines in the countryside.
Wells change:
About 40-50 years the River Ravi, when passed through walled city Lahore, then
there the wells were shallow types. About 50 feet deep the water can be availed. But now
there the dig wells are of deep types for water availability.
1.6. Physiographic features
Lahore is situated on the flat alluvial plain at the average attitude of 702 feet
above sea level. Parts of the city are situated at a high slightly higher level of mounds of
the debris of former cities. The municipal area of Lahore is 128 square miles. The area
under the jurisdiction of Lahore Development Authority which may be called the greater
Lahore area is 390 square miles.
Fig:1.2 Map Of Lahore
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Chapter One Introduction
1.7. Climate of Lahore
The climate of Lahore city is very healthy and salubrious. Except for some days
in the summer, Lahore is a pleasant place to live.
There are two main seasons, namely the winter and the summer. The winter
season starts from October to April and the summer starts from April to October.
From the 1st of October to the 15th of November is the autumn when the winter is
expected and it is neither hot nor cold. It is the spring season. The weather of Lahore
changes with change in direction of sun.
Fig:1.3 Sun Shine
The winter proper starts for three months from the 15th November to 15th
February. The minimum temperature observed in Lahore is -2.2c recorded on 16,17 Jan
1935. The summer starts from the 1st of April but till the 15th of May temperature are not
very high.
Real summer begins from around 15th May and lasts till the 1st of July. The
maximum temperature recorded 48.3c on 30 June 1944.There are occasional dust storms
which lower the temperature.
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Chapter One Introduction
Fig:1.4 Temperature
The rainy season begins in July and lasts till September. The severest rainfall in Lahore
observed during 24 hours is 221 mm (8.7inches) on 13 August 2008.
In September the pinch of summer is over and the nights become cool.
Average rainfall in Lahore is 20 inches a year. The heaviest rainfall was in 1882when
37.43 inches of rain was recorded.
The most intensive recorded could burst in Lahore occurred on 24th September
1954 when there was 9 inches of rainfall in 24 hours. The monsoons are their peak during
July and August, and during these two months there is more than one half of the annual
rain fall. October and November are the driest months and the average rainfalls during
these months is about one third of an inch only.
There are winter rains during December February, the average rainfall during these
months being 3 inches.
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Chapter One Introduction
Fig:1.5 Rain Fall
From November to May the predominant wind direction is from north – west and
west. From June to August the wind direction is from southeast and southwest. During
September and October the wind is in a state of fun and keeps changing its direction.
Humidity
The humidity in Lahore gets its peak value in the months of July and August. In
the April and May month its value attains minimum value. In October its value is
moderate whereas in December and January it gets high comparatively.
8
Chapter One Introduction
Fig:1.6 Humidity
9
Chapter One Introduction
1.8. Soil of Lahore
On the basis of Field Protocol NASA (2005), the soil was physically characterized
by performing field testing. Samples collected from various locations, show
different properties. The soil structure is mostly composed of granular type,
however, at few places it is platy type. The consistency of the surface soil is graded as
friable. The presence of carbonate contents is reflected by most of the samples. The soil
can be classified as silty clay.
The major mineral composition for Lahore soil is Quartz, Muscovite and
Clinochlore, which shows that the alluvial deposit received sediments from metamorphic
origin.
The soil of Lahore area is composed of alluvial material. Which was carried from
the Himalayan ranges by tributaries of the vast Indus river system. They are reddish-
brown to grayish brown, mostly moderately coarse and medium texture soil containing
high percentage of fine to very fine sand and the salt of Lahore area is underline by
unconsolidated alluvial deposits of quaternary age. The alluvial sands constitute. The
aquifer material under Lahore.
Beds of gravel and very coarse sand are uncommon within the sand at many
places. Concretions of secondary origin locally known as kankar` may be found in
association with fine sediments. Clay and salt formation occurs as discontinuous layers
with limited lateral extent and thickness generally less than 5 meters. However, their
thickness may very between 1 to 20 meters.
In spite of heterogenic nature of alluvial complex groundwater occurs underwater
table condition. The aquifer is high transmissive with hydraulic conductivity ranging from
37.2 to 73.4 m/d. on the basis of aquifer test performed in the vicinity of project area of
Lahore , the value of specific yield has been estimated as ranging from 0.1 to 0.26.
however values determines through nuclear moisture probe in various parts of Punjab
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Chapter One Introduction
plain show higher values applicable for long term pumpage.
1.9 Study Area
The study area is Lahore. Lahore is the heart of Punjab province of Pakistan. It is
the second biggest city in Pakistan. One of the most densely inhabited cities in the world.
Lahore remains focal point for economical political, transportation, entertainment and
educational aspects. Study area having following features:
Lahore city is present near by the Sheikhupura district north and west,
India on east and Kasur district on south.
The Ravi river is flowing from the north of the Lahore
Lahore city having area of 1772km2
Lahore city is present in latitude 31’15’ and 31’45’ in the north and
longitude 74’01’ and 74’39’ in east.
The elevation of Lahore from mean sea level 217m about 712 feet
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Chapter One Introduction
Fig:1.7 Study Area (Lahore)
Objectives
To develop hydrological model
Using the available input data (DEM, land use, soil data and climate data)
to predict water quantity and quality of the gauged basin using SWAT.
Using some of these realizations in the modeling procedure to quantify the
uncertainties associated with inputs.
12
Chapter Two Literature Review
Chapter Two
LITERATURE REVIEW
Bjørn Kløve (2014) observed that the aquifers and groundwater dependent
ecosystems, which are facing high pressure due to water use, climate change and
irrigation of water. These increased in pressure change groundwater levels and their
eternal method. And menace critical ecosystem services which are arable land irrigation
and water requirement for ecosystem. Especially during droughts on an area. So this
overview is studying the climate changes effects on groundwater and dependent
ecosystem as will. These mechanisms effecting natural variability in groundwater due to
global climate changes and effect of climate change .and also used of land changes due to
anthropogenic influences are summarized based on studying from different hydrological
and hydro geological strata and also from climatic zones. The impact on ecosystem is
discussed based on using the current findings on the factors influencing the biodiversity
and functioning of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem. The influence of climate change to
groundwater on groundwater dependent ecosystem (GDE)
Biodiversity and future menaces introduce by climate changes are reviewed. And
which we are using some main information from surface water data studies and
knowledge of aquifer and groundwater ecosystem. In which different research gapes are
identified. Due to no understanding of aquifers and groundwater of several key analyses.
The doubtfulness link with management techniques which are numerical modeling is
more. The possible nesses and roles of new methodologies such as indicator and
modeling methods are discussed in the context of integrated groundwater resources
management .
Timothy R. Green a (2011) collaborated that the entire world modification
encompasses changes in the characteristics of inter-related climate changes in the space
and time. And formed changes in the terrestrial procedures. This is including human
activities that are affecting the world environment. Such as projected global changes that
12
Chapter Two Literature Review
includes groundwater systems. Whereas groundwater is defined here as the sum of all
subsurface water which includes soil water, deeper vidus zone water, and all confined
and unconfined aquifers of water under the ground. Potency of climate change effects
combined with both land and water management on surface water. Those have been
studied in details in some term. So the equivalent studies of groundwater systems have
lagged behind these progresses, but the research on groundwater and wide involvement in
the projected climate affects on groundwater have been speed up in past years. So in
these papers, we cater the summary and synthesis of the main key of subsurface
hydrology, which is including water quantity and water quality that is relating to global
changes. Whereas global change by adaptation must include reasonable management of
groundwater as a renewable. But in most cases the feedback is slow down. And in many
regions the groundwater storage is already over-tapped.so yet the available subsurface
storage may be the key to converge the combined demands of industries, agriculture,
domestic water supply and municipal water supply, and ecosystems during shortage of
time. In the circumstances of groundwater resources the intensity and frequency of dry
periods will be combined with warming tends needs to be addressed in future. Even
though the projections are fraught in space and time with uncertainty. Ultimately,
potential impacts of global climate on the groundwater system are mostly unknown.
Research that improve our apprehension of articulation behaviors of climate and
groundwater is required, and getting benefits on every studied.
Ali Ertürk a (2014) formulated that impact of Climate change is subjected to
considerable the western Mediterranean region of turkey may adversely affect the
groundwater of that region. Increase and decrease in temperature of annual precipitation
and winter precipitation are observed since 1960s.so in this study, the impact of climate
change impact on groundwater resources are a part of koycegiz-dalyan watershed was
valued. Valuation was done by quantifying the impacts of climate change on groundwater
budget components. Swat model was conducted by hydrological modeling. This
successfully graduated and formalized. Climate change and land use scenarios were used
to compute the present and future change of climate that impacts the groundwater budget.
According to simulation, almost all the water budget components have been decreased.
Whereas SWAT model was able to distribute less irrigation water because of overall
13
Chapter Two Literature Review
water is due to climate change. So these results in an increase in water stressed days and
temperature stressed days whereas decreased in the crop yield according to simulation
results. In this manner, in future the result signal that lack of water is expected. so this
investigation on switching to more efficient irrigation methods and to crops with less
water consumption are recommended as adaptation measures to climate change impacts
in an area.
Study region
Study about groundwater is conducted in the area of Magdalena Island (Quebec,
Canada). So here in a small archipelago located in the gulf city of St. Lawrence. And so
on.
Study focus
Jean-Michel Lemieuxa(2015)researched the complication of existing data of
groundwater. But the work of additional field has also been carried out to increase the
extra information about groundwater. So the work to support and design was undertaken
of long-term groundwater monitoring network and for the sustainable management of
groundwater resources. And the direct observation of the shape and depth of the
transition zone between sea water and fresh water under natural conditions has been
allowing for the first time in the Magdalena Island by additional field work. In order to
evaluate the individual and combined impacts of sea-level rise along a 2D cross-section
on grandee Entree Island were conducted coastal erosion and decreased recharge of
groundwater on the position of the saltwater and freshwater interface. Under saturated
and unsaturated conditions the simulation was performed viewing variable density flow
and solute transport. The model was driven by observed and projected climate change
scenarios to 2040 for the Magdalena Islands for more work.
Among these three impacts of climate changes on groundwater is viewed by
model, in which the most important is sea level rise, which is followed by decreasing in
groundwater recharge and coastal erosion , when these are combined , then over a 28
years period, these impacts cause the salt water and fresh water interface to migrate
inland over a distance of 37 m and to rise by 6.5 m near the coastal to 3.2 m further
inland.
14
Chapter Two Literature Review
José-Luis Molina a (2013) experienced that some tools like Bayesian networks
are powerful for foretelling and measuring of groundwater management scenarios and
unsure drivers like climate change, integrating available scientific knowledge with the
interests of the multiple stakeholder. Among their major limitations and non transient
treatment of the cause effect relationship stands out. A decision support system (DSS)
that is based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNS), this system is suggested here
designed to extenuate that limitation through time slicing technique. This DSS comprises
several classes, especially for 5 years length time steps designation for future. So this is
covering 30 years of period of total control (2045-2075). Here the DSS has been
developed for evaluating the impacts generated by different climate change scenarios that
are generated from several regional climatic models under two emission scenarios,
intensive used of groundwater is affected in an aquifer system over the last 30 years of
time. Under the climate change condition, the behavior of the aquifer was employed to
examine by the groundwater flow model (MODFLOW).so the calibrated continuous
water balance model was used to generate hydrological climate change (CC) scenarios.
Both of the models have obtained the result were used as an input for the aquifer
recharge, considering rainfall, variation of piezometric levels and temporal evolution of
the aquifer storage as the main hydrological components of the aquifer system of DSS.
So the results show the storage of aquifer under controlled water management
intervention for each future time step under different climate change conditions. As the
climate change come into effect than these types of applications would allow establishing
potential adaptation strategies for aquifer system.
Antoine Armandine Les Landes a, (2014) suggested that the lands of peat are
complex ecosystems driven by the processes of many biological, chemical and physical.
So these peat soils have some significant impact on groundwater quality, greenhouse gas
emission and the ecosystem productivity. Chiefly because of anthropogenic activities
such as drainage for agriculture or groundwater abstractions in underlying aquifer the
extent of the peat lands is decreasing across the world day by day. Potential changes in
precipitation and temperature in future are Likely applying additional pressure to
wetland. In these situation, the respective impacts methodology for evaluating and
comparing of groundwater abstractions and climate changes on groundwater fed wetland
15
Chapter Two Literature Review
are (135 km2) located in northwest France is presented. To represent surface and
subsurface interactions, a model of groundwater was developed to use flexible boundary
conditions, which allows the scrutiny of the extent of the wetland areas. So this parameter
is usually not considered in impact studies but highly important for land management.
Downscaled from 14 GCMs matched to the A1B greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario over
the periods of 1960-2000 and 2082-2101 the model was paired with recharge estimation,
groundwater abstraction scenarios and climate change scenarios. So the results show that
climate change is expected to have an important impact and reduce the surface of wetland
by 5.3-13.6%. In the comparison, the impact of the groundwater abstraction (100%
increases in the expected scenarios) would lead to a maximum decrease of 3.7%. Result
also show that the impacts of climate change and groundwater abstraction could be
partially mitigated by decreasing or stopping land drainage in specific parts of the area.
Water management will require an appropriate compromise which encompasses
ecosystem preservation, economic and public domain activities.
Barret L. Kurylyk a(2014) revealed the change in climate is expected to increase
global and regional air temperature and significantly modifying precipitation regimes. So
increase in soil temperature and groundwater temperature could impact the groundwater
quality, contribution to the geotechnical failure of critical infrastructure and harm
groundwater ecosystems. Melting caused by increasing temperature of subsurface will
also change the surface and subsurface hydrology in high latitude and altitude regions
and this worsens the rate of anthropogenic change in climate which than stores the carbon
gases into the atmosphere. These transports of subsurface heat equation for hot and cold
regions theory have discussed. It is summarized that heat transport model and developed
groundwater flow that can fallow melting and freezing processes briefly. So these are the
initial processes of studies on groundwater viewing the impact of climate change on
subsurface of groundwater thermal regimes in hot and cold regions in future. So the
current studies about climate change on groundwater create future information of
groundwater conditions.
Riasat Ali a,(2012) studied that in South-western Australia from groundwater the
water consumption is about three – quarters. The decline in groundwater levels occurred
due to increased discharge and decreased recharge rate since about 1975 and ultimately
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Chapter Two Literature Review
the ecosystem is badly affected. Where the land is used for dry land agriculture there the
groundwater levels are rising. In this study five climate schemes are applied to
groundwater models to check the levels in region in 2030. The climate schemes were (i) a
continuation of the more recent climate of 1997–2007 until 2030; (ii) a continuation of
the historical climate of 1975–2007; and (iii–v) three climate scenarios derived by
applying the GCM projected climate under three global warming scenarios of 0.7, 1.0 and
1.3 °C by 2030. When the abstraction levels increase from allowed maximum levels
under the median future climate (1.0 °C warming), this is considered as sixth climate
scheme. This is evaluated that groundwater is affected by climate lesser than that of
surface water. Where the soil will sandy, a very little vegetation and water table neither
very deep nor very shallow, there the recharge rate will be at peak under fixed rainfall.
The water table should be within 10m of soil surface and about a quarter within 3m in
study area. When the drainage from groundwater is reduced and evapotranspiration losses
equalize the reduced rainfall amount then the groundwater levels would not decline in
reduced rainfall condition. Once the groundwater level is exceeded over its capacity then
rainfall will fail to refill it. Under the dry climate condition, where the perennial
vegetation was present, the groundwater levels decline whereas under the lands of dry
agriculture the projected groundwater levels continue to rise. There is very little bit
climatic impact on confined aquifer. This is due to the presence of confined layer over the
confined aquifer. Climate changes impact all of the water balance components to a
greater or lesser extent. It has sequels for the amount of water that can be extracted from
aquifer, changes the risk of sea-water intrusion and has suggestion for ecosystem.
17
Chapter Two Literature Review
M.E. Stuart(2011) evaluated the impact of climate on concentration of nitrate in
groundwater of UK using a Source-Pathway-Receptor framework, . The change in
temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide concentration will affect the agricultural
nitrate source as well as urbanization will be affected. Though that is not understood that
the intimation of nitrate leaching to groundwater is suitable but in future this leaching can
be increased under these climate scenarios. With fluctuation in groundwater level,
recharge and flow processes, the hydrological cycle will also be affected by climate.
Under these changes the concentration of nitrate will change in abstracted water. For
future prediction more site-specific data is required besides the leaching. Small changes
in nitrate leaching possesses to a possible doubling of aquifer concentration by 2100 from
limited increases. The agricultural practices may improve the nitrate reduction but there
is need discover more efficient methods. The economic responses to climate change can
also control the future impacts.
S. Pasini a( 2012) concluded that due to the observed global warming and its
consequences at the global to local scale, over last two decades the impact of climate
change on water resources is taken under consideration. Climate impacts for groundwater
and related ecosystems constitute concern to scientists and water protection authorities.
The changing in water cycle enhances research on relationships between climate drifts
and water levels, and for feasible management develops predictive tools, copying with
key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST, a
Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed to identify impacts of
climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems and to differentiate areas and
receptors in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). On the basis of
vulnerability of impacts, integrated analysis and climatic risks which effect the regions, a
RRA framework complying with the Sources– Pathway–Receptor–Consequence (SPRC)
approach was adopted. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters were
selected and inspected through risk and sensitivity analysis. From 2017 to 2100 period
the RRA methodology constructed through global and high resolution model simulations,
according to IPCC A1B emission scenario to produce useful manifestations for future
risk formulation and adopt the measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR)
techniques. Results from the RRA application emphasized that the impact of climate on
18
Chapter Two Literature Review
study area will occur with different magnitude and intensity. Qualitative impact will
occur on wetted groundwater whereas in driest condition the quantitative impact will
exposed. Moreover, direct effects of such impacts will be in minor range on related
ecosystem croplands, natural environments and forests while the indirectly effects of
climate will occur more severely on natural and anthropic systems through reduction in
quality and quantity of water availability for agriculture. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights
reserved.
Chao Chena (2014) investigated that to control the vegetation water use because
of climate change and impacts on recharge is vitally known to limited groundwater
resource utilization by man. Ground water modeling investigated all the responses of
climate on ground water. The study area was Mulga (Acacia aneura)in arid central
Australia. Data collected from the study area was calibrated and validated by using the
biophysically based model WAVES. The observed climate data of period 1981-2012 was
used to simulate the vegetation growth, vegetation water-use ground and water
groundwater recharge. Seasons had great impact on vegetation water-use and it was also
shown in simulation of the model. Annual recharge affected by vegetation water-use as it
was reduced by a rate of 0-48 mm compared to that of 58-672 mm. the study results
showed climate variability and land use cover and used for future prediction for impact
on climate change on ground water.
Lucila Candelaa (2009) has studied the Inca-Sa Pola coasal aquifer for year
2025, it simulates the impacts of climate change on a ground water dependent wetland
and natural recharge. General circulation model (GCM) was coupled to a groundwater
model used temperature and precipitation to simulate the climate change impacts on
ground water. Changes in volume of water withdrawn from ground water aquifers for
multiple purposes provided the basis for the management practices. Estimation of
discharge from aquifer for various purposes i.e,agricultural land use ,domestic use and
may more is done for simulation of climate change impacts over ground water flow rate
in spring season and recharge rate for climate scenarios. As results from GCM drawn less
or greater than simulated there showed the system response was indicative. The is a need
of reduction of ground water extraction so that it may prevent the drying up of wet land.
19
Chapter Two Literature Review
Sensitivity analysis showed that agricultural wells located near the wetland were affected
by spring discharge.
…..K. Eckhardta (2003) described that Europe is considered as a part of
anthropogenic climate change as there climate has significant impact over the region.
Here General Circulation Models used to simulate the changes in temperature and
precipitation over the region. In this study the model used was conceptual eco-hydrologic
model, a revised version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulates the
climate impacts on ground water recharge. The study area was central European low
mountain range catchment. Although climate had impacts over co2 emission from
stomata as well as contributed to Green House Effect but it had more significant impacts
over stream flow and ground water recharge. The study results predict the future climate
change scenarios, as it tells about warming of the region will cause the precipitation to
fall in the form of snow. It will cause the reduction in spring snow melt peak hence
causing the flood in winter will increase. Monthly mean ground water recharge reduced
by 50% in concerning problems of water quality,ground water withdrawals and
hydropower generation.
Achiransu Acharyya (2014) studied under developed countries , Ground water is
has a bad impact as affected by high population rate and human activities i.e ,
industrialization and urbanization all these activities have led to decrease in water supply
per capita. Human activities damage the natural resources of land water. The study results
showed that the temperature of the region rise led to the reduction in surface as well as
ground water.
H.A. Loáicigaa (2000) has explored the scaling factors which are derived from
various General Circulation models to evaluate the future impacts of aquifer pumping on
water resources of Edwards Balcones Fault Zone (BFZ) Texas , United States .these
scaling factors created the climate change scenarios. 2*CO2 climate scenarios coupled
with different pumping scenarios to evaluate the sensitivity of water resources impacts to
human activities on Edwards BFZ aquifer. Surface hydrology combined with2*CO2
scenarios to studying the aquifer dynamics by simulation and calibration results all the
study was done. The simulation results show that 2×CO2 climate scenarios led to the
20
Chapter Two Literature Review
threatening results about ground water resources. The study results showed that there
were negative impacts on ground water resources under 2*CO2 climate scenarios, if
there even no increase in pumping above average level. All the results showed that there
were severe impacts of climate change over ground water resources and warm climate
severely affected the Edwards BZF aquifer.
Hui-Hai Liu (2011) examined the impact of climate change on groundwater
recharge in dry areas, this work is proposed which gives an eco-hydrology based
approach. In dry areas the vegetation community is divided into two groups, shallow- and
deep-rooted vegetation, for the deep-rooted vegetation the root-zone soil water saturation
attain its peak value in growing season. This concept is reinforced by the collection of
data sets in different dry regions. Analytical results of soil water dynamics developed are
adapted for establishing the impact of climate change. The conceptual model allows
deep-zone soil water saturation to remain fixed during different climate conditions in
growing season; we can construct a relationship among groundwater recharge, deep-
rooted vegetation cover and climate. We apply the developed approach to Yucca
Mountain area for an illustrative example. Our recharge values are consistent with results
calibrated by other methods or observed from sites. Here the climatic impact on
groundwater recharge is also evaluated. The results show that both groundwater recharge
and deep-rooted vegetation coverage increase with decreasing rainfall frequency (for a
given amount of annual rainfall), with increasing average rainfall depth per rainfall event
(for a fixed frequency) and with increasing frequency (for a fixed rainfall depth per
rainfall event). This is proved that the effect of vegetation on groundwater recharge is
enormous.
2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.☆
Mohamed Meddi (2013 ) calibrated the Cheliff-Zahrez watershed the resource of
water is groundwater. However, due to the drought in the basin, farmers of the region
have resorted to the intense availability of groundwater resources. This study, by adding
groundwater and natural infiltration, enabled us to calculate the impact of rainfall
21
Chapter Two Literature Review
reduction on groundwater resource in the basin. In the future we estimated the rainfall for
2025 and 2050 and due to it the groundwater recharge at that horizons.
Daniel C. Segala, , , (2014) evaluated that due to climate change the amount and
timing of snowmelt changing the groundwater levels in United States. In this study we
examine seasonal variability impact on aquifers (Martis Valley Watershed near Truckee,
CA) by analyzing (1) helium and tritium isotopes to determine groundwater sources and
age, (2) determine recharge temperatures and excess air concentrations from dissolved
noble gases. Recharge temperatures calculated at pressures corresponding to well head
elevations are similar to mean annual air temperatures at lower elevations of the
watershed, suggesting that most recharge is occurring at these elevations, after
equilibrating in the vadose zone. In a geothermal gradient each recharge temperature and
discharge temperature was calculated for groundwater flow depth. Groundwater samples
contain large amounts of excess helium from terrigenic sources, including mantle helium
and radiogenic helium. Terrigenic helium and tritium concentrations are used to
determine the age of groundwater sources. Many of the wells sampled show a mix of
groundwater ages ranging from >1000s of years old to groundwater with tritium
concentrations that are in agreement with tritium in modern day precipitation. In younger
groundwater and shallower flow depth high seasonal variability is found and this
indicates that the recent recharge is most endangered as compare to older, less sustainable
waters in the aquifer during periods of increased production.
J.P. Bloomfield (2006) simulated that the regulation of pesticides in surface and
groundwater is observed and significant work is done in last two decades and
understanding of environmental policy and regulation is important. There are some
studies that scrutinize the relationship between pesticides and climate change, and in this
area agricultural production is affected by climate rather than environmental protection.
As a pre-cursor to quantitative studies the regulation of pesticides under the climate
impact in surface and groundwater is simulated in this work. In order to structure the
review, we have adopted a source–pathway–receptor approach where environmental
pathways, climate sensitivities of pesticide source terms and receptors are observed. The
driver of climate, which control the pesticide regulation, can be variable in increased
temperature, rainfall seasonality and intensity, but overall to predict the effect of climate
22
Chapter Two Literature Review
on pesticide regulation is a difficult task. The impact of change in climate on land-use,
which is a indirect impact, have more consequential effect on the regulation of pesticides
as compare to direct impact. The analysis focuses on case studies from the UK; climate
change scenarios however, the general conclusions can be functional extra extensively.
Abstract
Taniguchi (2009) elaborated that in Asian coastal cities groundwater
contamination, excessive groundwater pumping, and subsurface thermal anomalies have
occurred enormously, greatly fluctuating the groundwater level and the subsurface
environment. In this study, the relationship between the urbanization and subsurface
environment issues have been traversed. Intensive field surveys were done in Tokyo,
Taipei, Bangkok, Jakarta, Osaka, Seoul, and Manila. Advanced methods, including tracer
techniques, satellite and the social economy model, were developed to assess subsurface
conditions. Under climate changes groundwater storage and groundwater recharge rates,
accumulation and transport of pollutants are integrated evidences of natural capacities,
and used to evaluate the susceptible risk for all cities. Now it is possible to manage
groundwater resources in a maintained fashion using these indicators. This volume is
crucial for researchers in hydrology, coastal oceanography, civil engineering, urban
geography, social economy, climatology, geothermic, and urban management.
23
Chapter Three Material and Methods
Chapter Three
Materials and Methods
3.1 Materials
Digital Elevation Model
Soil Data
Land Use
Weather Data
3.1.1 Digital Elevation model:
A digital elevation model (DEM) is a digital model or 3D representation of a
terrain’s surface-commonly for a planet (including Earth), moon or asteroid-created from
terrain elevation data.
A DEM can be represented as a raster (a grid of squares, also known as a height
map when representing elevation) or as a vector- based triangular irregular network
(TIN).
3.1.2 Soil Data:
In order to define the Hydrological Response Unit (HRUs), soil maps are very
important. All of the properties of the soil like pH, soil moisture storage capability and
organic carbon content can be derived from soil map.
3.1.3 Land Use:
Land use affects the discharge rate in a watershed because the rate of
evapotranspiration, surface erosion and runoff levels fluctuate.
24
Chapter Three Material and Methods
3.1.4 Weather Data:
Weather data is used to calibrate the results of climate change on ground water
resources. This data is collected from Pakistan meteorological department Lahore.
Followings are included:
1. Temperature (C)
2. Precipitation (mm)
3. Relative Humidity
4. Solar Radiation (MJ/m^2)
5. Humidity
3.2 Methods:
For estimating the climate change impact on ground water, SWAT 2009 is used
which is incorporated with Map Window GIS for calibration, validation and uncertainty
analysis.
The software used for research was:
Map Window GIS
SWAT 2009
MWSWAT 2009
SWAT check
SWAT-CUP4
Microsoft excel
Microsoft access
25
Chapter Three Material and Methods
3.2.1 Map Window GIS
Map window GIS project includes a free and open source desktop geographic
information system (GIS) with extensible plugin architectures. It is distributed as an open
source application under the Mozilla Public License; MapWindow GIS can be
programmed to perform different or more specialized tasks. There are also plug-in to
expand compatibility and functionality.
Fig:3.1 Map Window GIS
3.2.1.1. Model Setup
Data Preparation
Watershed Delineation
HRU Definition
3.2.1.2. Software Performance
Watershed delineation
Open new project and press Step1 Delineate Watershed
Add the DEM of Lahore and Press “Process DEM”
26
Chapter Three Material and Methods
Fig:3.2 Input DEM Lahore
Add Shape file of Lahore
Fig:3.3 Input Lahore Shape File
Assign 50sq.km to network delineation by threshold method
27
Chapter Three Material and Methods
Add Lahore outlet and press run
Fig:3.4 Input Catchment Distance
Create HRU
Press Step 2 Create HRU
28
Chapter Three Material and Methods
Fig:3.5 Sub basins and Tributaries
Add Lahore Land use-reprojected and add Lahore soil-reprojected
Fig:3.6 Input Land Use and Soil Data
29
Chapter Three Material and Methods
Fig:3.7 Created Hydrological Response Unit
SWAT Setup and Run
Press Step 4 SWAT Setup and Run
30
Chapter Three Material and Methods
Fig:3.8 Input Weather Data
Fig:3.9 Input Files
31
Chapter Three Material and Methods
Fig:3.10 SWAT Setup and Run
Visualize
Press Step 4 Visualize
32
Chapter Three Material and Methods
Fig:3.11 Visualize
Fig:3.12 Mapping Through Visualization
33
Chapter Three Material and Methods
3.2.2. SWAT 2009
SWAT is a small watershed to river-basin scale model to simulate the quality and
quantity of surface and groundwater and predict the environmental impact of land use,
land management practices and climate change. SWAT is widely used in assessing soil
erosion prevention and control, non-point source pollution control and regional
management in watersheds. SWAT can be considered a watershed hydrological transport
model.
Model Components
Weather
Surface runoff
Return flow
Percolation
ET
Transmission losses
Pond and reservoir storage
Crop growth
Irrigation
Groundwater flow
Reach routing
Nutrient and pesticide loading
Water transfer
Model Operation
Daily time step-long term simulations
Basins subdivided to account for differences in soils, land use, crops,
topography, weather, etc.
Basins of several thousand square miles can be studied
Soil profile can be divided into ten layers
Basin subdivided into sub basins or grid cells
34
Chapter Three Material and Methods
Reach routing command language to route and add flows
Hundreds of cells/sub basins can be simulated in spatially displayed
outputs
Groundwater flow model
SWAT accepts output from EPIC
SWAT accepts measured data and point sources
Water can be transferred from channels and reservoirs
Nutrients and pesticide input/output
Windows Interface
GRASS GIS links to automate inputs
3.2.3. MWSWAT 2009
MWSWAT 2009 (MapWindow Interface for SWAT) is a plug-in for
MapWindow, an open source GIS system which runs under the Windows Operating
system. It provides the same functionality as Arc SWAT.
3.2.4. SWAT Check
The intended purpose of this program is to identify model problems early in the
programming process. Hidden model problems often result in the need to recalibrate or
regenerate model, resulting in an avoidable waste of time. This program is designed to
compare a variety of SWAT outputs to nominal ranges based on the judgment of model
developers. This software also provides the visual representation of various model
outputs to aid novice user.
35
Chapter Three Material and Methods
3.2.5. SWAT-CUP 4
Swat cup is the computer program for calibration of SWAT models. SWAT-CUP
is the public domain program, and as such may be used and copied freely. The program
links GLUE, ParaSol, SUFI2, MCMC and PSO procedures to SWAT. It enables
sensitivity analysis, calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis of a SWAT model.
The overall structure is shown:
Fig:3.13 SWAT-CUP4
3.2.6. Microsoft Excel
Microsoft excel is a spread application developed by Microsoft for Microsoft
Windows. It features calculations, graphing tools, pivot tables and a macro programming
language called visual basic for application.
3.2.7. Microsoft access
Microsoft access is a database management system from Microsoft that combines
the relational Microsoft Jet database Engine with a graphical user interface and software-
36
Chapter Three Material and Methods
development. It can also import directly to data stored in other application and databases.
It is used to incorporate the excel files with SWAT model.
37
Chapter Four Results and Discussions
Chapter Four
Results and Discussions
4.1 General
The output of MWSWAT 2009 is the result of this chapter. MWSWAT 2009
contain following four steps:
Delineate watershed
Create HRUs
SWAT setup and run
Visualize
Fig:4.1 Shape file of Lahore
38
Chapter Four Results and Discussions
Fig:4.2 Sub basins in Lahore
39
Chapter Four Results and Discussions
Fig:4.3 Full HRU
40
Chapter Four Results and Discussions
Fig:4.4 Land use
41
Chapter Four Results and Discussions
Fig:4.5 Soil
42
Chapter Four Results and Discussions
Fig:4.6 Precipitation
Fig:4.7 Ground Water Recharge
43
Chapter Four Results and Discussions
Fig:4.8 Potential Evapotranspiration
Fig:4.9 Evapotranspiration
44
Chapter Four Results and Discussions
Fig:4.10 Discharge
Fig:4.11 Max. Temp
45
Chapter Four Results and Discussions
Fig:4.12 Min. Temp
46
Chapter Four Results and Discussions
Fig:4.13 Water Yield
47
Chapter Four Results and Discussions
4.2 Results
The results of the calibration and validation process of the model for the stream
gage at study area are illustrated in Fig. 4.14
Fig: 4.14 Results from SWAT Check
48
Chapter Four Results and Discussions
4.2 Discussion on land use distribution change
SWAT simulation was run from 1990 to 2014, where the first 8 years were used
as warm up period to filter out the effect of initial conditions for which no spatial data
exist. As seen clearly, almost 60% of precipitation is lost via evapotranspiration.
Land use is an important factor that could directly influence the watershed
hydrology apart from climate change. The case study area is located in a special
environmental protection area. Therefore, even if tourism is the development focus,
extensive construction of hotels and summer residential sites will not be allowed;
therefore, will not cause any serious land use change that would increase the impervious
areas considerably.
4.3 Results for the simulation of climate scenarios
Water yield=surface runoff +subsurface runoff +base flow–losses through
streambeds:
All the water budget components indicate that there is a clear decline except for
revap which was slightly increased. Revap is the rise of groundwater to supplement the
soil water deficit. Thus, an Increase of revap indicates that more water from groundwater
storage has risen to supplement the deficiency. In other words, the model estimated that
the soil became drier. SWAT estimated real evapotranspiration decreased as well
indicating that less water is available for Evapotranspiration. SWAT incorporates
algorithms that estimate how much water the land need and allocate that amount of water.
If enough water is available at the source required amount is withdrawn; otherwise only
available water is withdrawn. SWAT was able to allocate less land use water because of
the decrease of overall water due to the climate change. This also resulted in increase of
water stressed days and temperature stressed days.
49
Chapter Four Results and Discussions
4.4 Change in ground water storage
Groundwater quantity decreased for all climate change scenarios because of the
decrease in groundwater recharge. Changes in other hydrological variables such as the
base flow are the results of a considerable decrease of the groundwater storage. As the
summers in the region are dry with high rate of evapotranspiration, amount of the soil
water is important to maintain the natural vegetation. The decrease in precipitation and
increase in evaporation, especially in summer, can quickly reduce soil moisture, and
lower soil moisture can have adverse effects on plants and may also decrease the supply
of groundwater.
50
References
Chapter Five
Conclusion
In this study, SWAT hydrological model was set up to calculate the present and
future climate change impacts on water budget in Lahore. SWAT was successful
calibrated and validated to be used as a tool for given purpose.
For the climate change scenario, SWAT was run auto-land use mode, where the
model was provided with water sources (in our case study, the only water source for land
use was ground water) for each HRU. The model results showed clearly a decrease in
land use water, because less groundwater is available at land use of study area.
Lack of water is expected to be a pressure in the case study area. Under these
circumstances it is clear that water conservation should be considered as the primary
climate change adaptation strategy. Since land use is the main water demanding sector in
the area, further investigations about the possibilities related to switching appropriate use
of water. Such studies should be supported with comprehensive model application that
can test this scenario in terms of adaptations to the social and environmental context. The
hydrological results from our study could from the first tier of such an integrated
approach.
Analytical results for soil–water dynamics developed for investigating the impact
of climate change on groundwater recharge. Because the conceptual model allows deep-
zone soil water saturation (averaged over growing seasons) to remain fixed during
different climate conditions, the relations among groundwater recharge, the coverage of
land use, and climate can be obtained using the analytical results. Our estimated recharge
value under the current climate and land use coverage is generally consistent with results
estimated from other methods or observed from the site. We also evaluate how the
recharge will change under several assumed future climate scenarios. The results show
that both groundwater recharge and land use coverage increase with decreasing rainfall
frequency (for a given amount of annual rainfall), with increasing average rainfall depth
per rain-fall event (for a fixed frequency) and with increasing frequency (for a fixed
51
References
rainfall depth per rainfall event). The latter indicates the relatively large buffering effect
of land use on changes in groundwater recharge.
Recommendation
A precise water use data is needed to draw a more reliable picture of yield
of water and deep aquifer recharge resources availability with smaller
uncertainty bands.
An application of water yield and deep aquifer recharge information could
be to draw a water scarcity map of study areas presenting per captia water
availability per year.
Calibration of hydrological model alone with river discharge does not
provide good of all components of the water balances, it is recommended
to use a calibration of multi =criteria for different components of
uncertainty.
Evapotranspiration and Land use have direct relation with each other we
ca use it for calibration too in order to get soil moisture.
To understand the effect of climate change on ground water resources
availability and hydrological components, future climate change data are
also very useful and recommended to use as input in calibrated
hydrological model.
52
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