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My presentation description

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Climate change and water resources in tropical glacier areas

Cordillera Blanca in Peru as a case of study.

Denny Rivas2013

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Agenda

1. Cordillera Blanca: problem description

2. Glacier mass balance: forcing factors

3. ENSO impacts on glacier behavior

4. Glaciers climate sensitivity in Cordillera Blanca

5. Conclusions

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Problem descriptionEverything is about glaciers!

Peak averageelevation: 5,500m

Area:180km long25km wide

Glacier retreatment:1970: 680km2

2000:

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Agenda

1. Cordillera Blanca: problem description

2. Glacier mass balance: forcing factors

3. ENSO impacts on glacier behavior

4. Glaciers climate sensitivity in Cordillera Blanca

5. Conclusions

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Glacier mass balance: relevant climate factors

Mass balancevariations

Lowered albedo (less snow and more water)

Increased air temperature (favors rain over snowfall)

Reduced cloud cover (LWT)

Low wind speeds (it limits the transfer of energy m/s)

Precipitation

Humidity

- Shrinking

+ Growing

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIMATE FACTORS

Accumulation

vsAblation

Precipitationand humiditydriven ratio

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Glacier mass balance: tropical characteristics

No pronounced thermal seasonality

Wet and dry seasons differentiation

Atmospheric circulation patterns

Inner tropics Outer tropics

wetter dryer

High humidity(wet season):

Melting prevails

High vapor pressure(dry season):

Sublimation prevails

Higher mass loss Lower mass loss

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Agenda

1. Cordillera Blanca: problem description

2. Glacier mass balance: forcing factors

3. ENSO impacts on glacier behavior

4. Glaciers climate sensitivity in Cordillera Blanca

5. Conclusions

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Glacier mass balance: ENSO impacts

Equator(high temperature influence)

General tropical glacier response to ENSO events

El Nio

La Nia

High mass losses (neg. mass balance)

Balanced or slightly positive mass balance

Cordillera Blanca case

ENSO impact is relatively weak because Cordillera

Blanca is located in an intermediate zone (Vuille, 2007)

15S(high precipitation influence)

CORDILLERA BLANCA

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Agenda

1. Cordillera Blanca: problem description

2. Glacier mass balance: forcing factors

3. ENSO impacts on glacier behavior

4. Glaciers climate sensitivity in Cordillera Blanca

5. Conclusions

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Glaciers climate sensitivity in Cordillera Blanca:

Empirical assessment

Mass balance evolution 2003-2010 (GRACE) .

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

200301

200307

200401

200407

200501

200507

200601

200607

200701

200707

200801

200807

200901

200907

201001

201007

201101

201107

201201

201207

201301

-120.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

200301

200307

200401

200407

200501

200507

200601

200607

200701

200707

200801

200807

200901

200907

201001

201007

201101

201107

201201

201207

201301

Monthly mass balance (we cm)) Cumulative mass balance (we cm))

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Glaciers climate sensitivity in Cordillera Blanca:

Empirical assessmentMass balance climatology (2003-2010) .

DJF

(wet season)

JJA

(dry season)

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Glaciers climate sensitivity in Cordillera Blanca:

Empirical assessmentENSO impact on glaciers mass balance .

JJA

(dry season)

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

200301

200304

200307

200310

200401

200404

200407

200410

200501

200504

200507

200510

200601

200604

200607

200610

200701

200704

200707

200710

200801

200804

200807

200810

200901

200904

200907

200910

201001

201004

201007

201010

201101

201104

201107

201110

201201

201204

201207

201210

201301

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

200301

200304

200307

200310

200401

200404

200407

200410

200501

200504

200507

200510

200601

200604

200607

200610

200701

200704

200707

200710

200801

200804

200807

200810

200901

200904

200907

200910

201001

201004

201007

201010

201101

201104

201107

201110

201201

201204

201207

201210

201301

Monthlymassb

alance

(wecm

)

ENSO

MEIIndex

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Agenda

1. Cordillera Blanca: problem description

2. Glacier mass balance: forcing factors

3. ENSO impacts on glacier behavior

4. Glaciers climate sensitivity in Cordillera Blanca

5. Conclusions

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Conclusions

Cordillera Blanca glaciers are not significantly sensitive to ENSO events

There is negative correlationbetween Cordillera Blanca glaciers mass balance andspecific humidity (high specific humidity induces high mass losses)

There is positive correlationbetween precipitation and glaciers mass balance)

The rest of the evaluated climate forcing factors (air temperature, low level wind, OLR)show no trend or constant correlation with glaciers mass balance in Cordillera Blanca.

By using GRACE water equivalent data there is no way to distinguish signals from

melting/ablation water, groundwater or surface water losses