Climate Change, fragility and conflict · WATER MANAGEMENT SEA-LEVEL RISE & COASTAL DEGRADATION...
Transcript of Climate Change, fragility and conflict · WATER MANAGEMENT SEA-LEVEL RISE & COASTAL DEGRADATION...
Climate Change, fragility and conflictWhat are the security implications of climate change for the EU?
„Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability.”
„Human security will be progressively threatened as the climate changes.”
www.newclimateforpeace.org
“Climate change is a global threat to security in the 21st century.”
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Compound climate-fragility risks
• Risks and conflict dynamics are already
observable today.
• No simple causal link between climate change
and fragility.
• Climate change converges with other pressures
and shocks and increases the risks to the
stability of states and societies.
Climate change acts as a risk multiplier
Climate change a global threat to security
in the 21st century
• Quellen: Asianet-Pakistan / shutterstock.com, Paco, Charles Roffey/flickr.com
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Seven compound climate-fragility risks
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & DISASTERS
LIVELIHOOD INSECURITY & MIGRATION
VOLATILE FOOD PRICES & PROVISION
TRANSBOUNDARYWATER MANAGEMENT
SEA-LEVEL RISE & COASTAL DEGRADATION
UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE
POLICIES
LOCAL RESOURCE COMPETITION
1. Global pressures are increasing
2. Creating 7 compound risks that threaten states & societies
INCREASING RESOURCE DEMAND
CLIMATE CHANGE
POPULATION GROWTH
UNEVEN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT & INEQUALITY
ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
URBANIZATION
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7 compound climate-fragility risks
UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF
CLIMATE POLICIES
TRANSBOUNDARY WATER MANAGEMENT
SEA-LEVEL RISE & COASTAL DEGRADATION
VOLATILE FOOD PRICES & PROVISION
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & DISASTERS
LIVELIHOOD INSECURITY & MIGRATION
LOCAL RESOURCE COMPETITION
LOCAL RESOURCE COMPETITION
LIVELIHOOD INSECURITY & MIGRATION
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS & DISASTERS
VOLATILE FOOD PRICES & PROVISION
TRANSBOUNDARY WATER MANAGEMENT
SEA-LEVEL RISE & COASTAL DEGRADATION
UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF
CLIMATE POLICIES
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Complex climate-fragility risks
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Building resilience against climate fragility risks
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Un Photos, UN Security Council
Foreign policy
• Make climate diplomacy a priorty
• Move beyond crisis management to
preventative action and diplomacy, for example
water diplomacy
• Policy coherence and integration, for example
international frameworks (Paris, SDGs, etc.)
• Prepare the multilateral system (UN system)
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UN Photos, MINUSTAH, Haiti
Development cooperation & humanitarian aid
• Better link development cooperation and
humanitarian aid need to go beyond treating
symptoms
• Provide integrated financing streams
example IcSP
• Link climate change adaptation and
peacebuilding example UN Env. project
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UN Photos, MINUSMA Peacekeepers, Mali
Defence and security policy
• Move beyond questions of disaster response
and greening military operations
• Broaden strategic thinking: Understand how
climate change could alter the broader contours
of defense policy (incl. geopolitics)
• Incorporate climate planning into defence and
strategic planning, in particular requirements
and early warning systems
• Advocacy
adelphi
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•Lukas Rüttinger
•Senior Projekt Manager