Climate change for Independent Insurance Age · Presentation Overview 1. Climate Change...
Transcript of Climate change for Independent Insurance Age · Presentation Overview 1. Climate Change...
March 24, 2016
NOAA National Weather Service | Omaha/Valley, Nebraska
Barb Mayes Boustead, Ph.D.Meteorologist and Climate Program Manager
National Weather ServiceOmaha/Valley Weather Forecast Office
Climate Change for theInsurance Industry
2NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
A Little Bit About Me
@windbarb
3NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Presentation Overview
1. Climate Change Definitions, Drivers, and Responses– Science basics– Global change– Central US impacts
2. Relationships between Climate Change and (Extreme)Weather
– U.S. trends– Climate fingerprints on weather events
3. Sources of Weather and Climate Information– Trusted, vetted, credible sources
4. Climate Partners– Weather-Ready Nation (and a Climate Prepared Nation, too!)– Decision support services
5. Resources and Links
4NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Climate Change:Definitions, Drivers, and Responses
Section 1 of 5
5NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Weather vs. Climate
Weather Climate
6NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
So, what’s with this“global warming”/climate change stuff?
•First, let’s cover terminology–The terms “climate change” and“global warming” are often usedinterchangeably
–Scientists prefer “climate change”because it describes the changes tothe whole system, not justtemperatures
–Many people still say “global warming”
•Be careful about your informationsources!
–Blogs, news commentators, politiciansoften not trained in climate
–Would you go to a dentist to get heartsurgery?
7NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Natural Greenhouse Basics
• Earth “should” be about 0°F
• Our atmosphere’s naturalgreenhouse properties maintaina surface temperature of about57°F
• Greenhouse gases includecarbon dioxide, methane, watervapor, nitrous oxide and others.
directly
8NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Greenhouse Gasses Increasing Due toHuman Activity (Burning Fossil Fuels)
9NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Carbon Dioxide Is Increasing Due to Human Activities
2015 peak: 404 PPM2016 peak: 404+ PPM
10NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Increased Temperatures Explained Only WhenIncluding Increased Greenhouse Gases
11NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Most Obvious Global Impact Is on TemperaturesFrom NCEI Global Climate Report: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/13
2015: 1.62°F warmer than 20th century average
12NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Global Analyses in Agreement
NASA, NOAA, MetOffice: relative to a common 1951 – 1980 base period
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings
13NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Extreme Events
Source: IPC AR5
14NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
In the past half century:Arctic air temperature increased at 0.72°F / decadeLand surface temperatures increased at 0.43°F / decadeSea surface temperatures increased at 0.22°F / decade
OceansLandArctic
The Rate of Warming Is Not the SameAround the World
15NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
10 11 Indicators of a Warming World
The stratosphere (up here!) is cooling
15
16NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATIONNOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
• In 2014, snow melt occurred 20–30 days earlier over NorthAmerica than the 1998–2010 average.
Snow Is Melting Early
17NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATIONNOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
Glaciers Are Melting
1900 versus today.
18NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
• The 8 lowest extents have occurred in past 8 years.• September Arctic sea ice extent is declining at a rate of -13.3% per decade.
Arctic Sea Ice Is Melting
Arctic sea ice
19NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Relationships between Climate Change and(Extreme) Weather
Section 2 of 5
20NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Big Heat Is IncreasingNOAA/NCEI Climate Extremes Index: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei
(Big Cold is generally decreasing)
21NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Big Rain Is Increasing
• On average, withsignificant regionalpatterns, heavyprecipitation isincreasing in twoaspects:
– Large events are nowresponsible for more of theannual rainfall budget
– Large events are generallygetting larger
• What impacts of thatchange can youimagine? Adapted from National Climate Assessment 2, US Global
Change Research Program.
22NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATIONNOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
Record highs are becoming more common than recordlows, and droughts are becoming more widespread.
23NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Billion Dollar DisastersSeveral factors converge to produce outcomes
• Trends in loss are acombination of:
– Trends in intensity,number and location ofphysical (weather andclimate) events
– Trends in wherestructures and assets areplaced (built)
– Trends in the value ofstructures and assets
NOAA/NCEI: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/
24NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Plains: Temperatures and Precipitation Increase
• Projections of changes intemperatures and days withprecipitation in 2041-2070.
• Temperature changes dependon:
–Time of day•Night warming faster than day
–Time of year•Winter warming faster thansummer
• Precipitation changes:–Depends on time of year
•Spring increasing, fall decreasing
–May include both longerdroughts and more heavy rainevents
Strict Limits to Emissions Soon
Little or No Change to Emissions: “Business as Usual”
25NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Plains: Dry Days Decrease
Strict Limits to Emissions SoonLittle or No Change to Emissions:
“Business as Usual”
26NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Climate Change Impacts on Crops
Corn and soybean harvests decrease with higher June-July-August maximumtemperature than 1980-2007. Source: NCA
27NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Longer freeze-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in the short term,but more in the long term (medium)
Higher nighttime temps summer and winter (high)
More freeze-thaw cycles (high)
Increased temperature variability (high)
Climate Change and Temperatures:Effects and Confidence
28NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Climate Change Effects and Confidence
More precipitation annually (~10%) (medium)
Change in “seasonality” (high)
More water-logging of soils (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)More intense rain events, thus more runoff (high)
More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)
Snowfall increases in short term, but decreases in the long run(medium)
29NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Climate Change Effects and Confidence
Reduced wind speeds (high)
Reduced solar radiation (medium)
Increased tropospheric ozone (high)
Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)
Phenological stages shortened (high)
Increased water use efficiency for plants (high)
30NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Sources of Climate Information
Section 3 of 5
31NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
The U.S. Global ChangeResearch Program(USGCRP)
www.globalchange.gov
Latest report released Spring 2014
Focuses on impacts in different regions of the U.S. AND in differentsectors
Printable PDFs for each region
http://www.globalchange.gov/
Source of Information:National Climate Assessment
32NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
State of the Climate in 2014http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate
• 25th edition• Published
annually insummer
• Led byNOAA/NCEI
33NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
State of the Climate in 2014http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate
413 authors from 58 countries; 17 editors on 3 continents413 authors from 58 countries; 17 editors on 3 continents
• Many scientists from many disciplines from around the world fitthe pieces of Earth’s climate system and its changes together toconnect the dots:‒ Dozens of essential climate indicators, extreme weather and climate
events, historical context.• This report does not pursue “attribution” or contain forecasts,
scenarios, or projections.
Atmosphere
Snow and Ice
Oceans
Land
34NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Extreme Weather & Climate series
• “Monitoring & UnderstandingChange …” State ofknowledge series (2013 &2014)• … in extreme storm statistics.
Kunkel, et al. 94(4), 499-514.– http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.11
75/BAMS-D-11-00262.1
• … in heat waves, cold waves,floods and droughts in the US.Peterson, et al. 94(6), 821-834.– http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.11
75/BAMS-D-12-00066.1
• … in extreme winds, waves, andextratropical storms. Vose, et al.95(3), 377-386.– http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.11
75/BAMS-D-12-00162.1
• … in CMIP5 Climate ModelAnalyses. Wuebbles, et. al., 95(4),571-583.• http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.11
75/BAMS-D-12-00172.1
35NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Climate Partners
Section 4 of 5
36NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Partners in Climate Services (…and many more)
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/
http://stateclimate.org/
https://www.climate.gov/
http://www.weather.gov/
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
37NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Weather-Ready Nation Ambassadors
• Weather-Ready Nation Ambassadors commit to:–Promoting WRN messages and themes to their stakeholders–Engaging NOAA on potential collaboration opportunities–Sharing success stories of preparedness and resiliency–Serving as an example by educating employees on workplace preparedness
• NOAA supports WRN Ambassadors by:–Providing WRN outreach content–Exploring innovative approaches for collaboration–Assisting with StormReady opportunities–Recognizing your organization as a WRN Ambassador–Sharing the WRN Ambassador logo for your use
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/ambassadors.html
38NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Resources and Links
Section 5 of 5
39NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
Resources for Further Information
• International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm• U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) National Climate Assessment: http://www.globalchange.gov/• NOAA Climate: http://www.climate.gov/• NOAA/NCEI Climate Change and Variability: http://ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/climate-change-and-variability• NOAA Carbon Dioxide Measurements: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/• NASA Global Climate Change: http://climate.nasa.gov/index• National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic Sea Ice: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/• National Academies of Science booklet “Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Choices”: https://nas-
sites.org/americasclimatechoices/more-resources-on-climate-change/climate-change-lines-of-evidence-booklet/• American Association for the Advancement of Science document “What We Know”: http://whatweknow.aaas.org/get-
the-facts/• American Meteorological Society Statement on Climate Change:
http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2012climatechange.htmlAmerican Geophysical Union Statement on Climate Change: http://sciencepolicy.agu.org/files/2013/07/AGU-Climate-Change-Position-Statement_August-2013.pdf
• HPRCC Climate Change: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/climate_change.php• HPRCC “Climate Change on the Prairie”:
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/publications/files/HighPlainsClimateChangeGuide.pdf
40NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
For More (Local) Climate Info:
•Barb Mayes Boustead, National Weather Service inOmaha/Valley, Nebraska: [email protected] or(402) 359-5166
•High Plains Regional Climate Center in Lincoln, Nebraska:(402) 472-6706