Climate Change, Energy, and Texas

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Why we are focused on decarbonizing the

electric grid?

Coal? In Texas? The role of coal on Texas

and U.S. climate change pollution

A quick look at the science of climate change.

Responsibility: The clean energy future of

Texas

2011: 86.8 F, 4.05 inches rain

Who began the concern that the burning of fossil fuels and the rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere might affect the climate?

(a)Al Gore - 1995(b)Robert Goddard – 1940(c)Albert Einstein - 1930(d)Charles Darwin - 1870

Arvid Högbom

Swedish Chemist

1857-1940

Högbom was the first scientist to realize that coal combustion could significantly increase the amount of CO2 in the air

Joseph Fourier

French Mathematician

1768-1830

Discovered through mathematical calculations that the earth must be heated with something more than the visible light from the sun.

Sealing Off the Ice

Accumulation Rates

Greenland = 0.5 m/yr

Antarctica = 0.05 m/yr

Ice Core Recovery

Core Processing Line

National Ice Core Laboratory (NICL)

Last Ice Age

Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO2 has not been this high in more than half a million years.

Last Interglacial

Ice ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earth’s orbital clock…. changes in the sunlight received).

350

300

250

200

Ca

rbo

n D

iox

ide

(

pp

mv)

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Thousands of Years Before Present600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Thousands of Years Before Present

[Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4]

Last Ice Age

Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO2 has not been this high in more than half a million years.

Last Interglacial

Ice ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earth’s orbital clock…. changes in the sunlight received).

350

300

250

200

Ca

rbo

n D

iox

ide

(

pp

mv)

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Thousands of Years Before Present600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Thousands of Years Before Present

[Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4]

CO2: where we are today because of last 200 years

Svante Arrhenius

1896: Calculated what would happen if atmospheric CO2 changed by 50%.

9 degrees F change in temperature

Gilbert Plass

Canadian Physicist - 1956

Lockheed

Worked on heat(IR)-seeking missiles

spare time: access to one of the first digital computers

– confirmed Arrhenius was right –

CO2 absorbs enough IR that planet is going to warm because of emissions

The Drought: We are doing this to ourselves,

Texas

Change in Precipitation Because of Climate Change by Year 2100. Source: USGCRP 2009

The Roll of Coal Power Plants

Texas: Driving the Economy...of Wyoming

Credit: Union of Concerned Scientists

$1.85 billion leaving Texas annually to pay for imported coal

Texas: Driving the Economy..of Wyoming

Credit: Union of Concerned Scientists

$71 per person per year from Texans for

Wyoming coal

National average is $18 per person / yearTexas spending at $6 per person / year

Texas: top on coal, near bottom on conservation

The Economics of The Carbon Rule•Texans are paying for carbon emissions and climate change today and

reducing emissions will save Texas money and help drive the economy.

•Texans today are spending $71 per capita and $284 per family of 4 annually for Wyoming coal. Approx. $1.8 billion per year in lost economic opportunity.

•Large and growing federal taxpayer exposures, per year (2012):–$20B Congressional Disaster Appropriations

–$10B National Flood Insurance Program

–$4B to 20B Federal Crop Insurance Program

•$300 per capita from every Texan for 2012 federal weather/climate disaster payments

•Climate and weather disasters in 2012 cost the American economy more than $100 billion.

•CPP climate & health benefits worth an estimated $55-$93 billion per yr in 2030. This includes avoiding 2,700-6,600 premature deaths & 140,000 -150,000 asthma attacks in children

•Outweighs the annual CPP compliance costs of $7.3 billion to $8.8 billion in 2030.

Texas: Slowly Getting Worse

Total CO2 via statewide total from Clean Air Markets 2013 annual data;Power MWh data via ERCOT.

Texas: Largest Emitter in the Country

Texas: Largest Emitter in the Country

167 plants defeated (89,830 MW) Source: Sierra Club New Coal tracker, April 14th 2012

New coal projects defeated.

175 plants defeated (95,000 MW) Source: Sierra Club New Coal tracker, April 14th 2012

Stats to Date:• 413 units• 145 whole plants• 54,665 MW

• 258 million MWh/yr• 209 million tons

CO2/yr

Announced retirements 2010 – May 2013

Habitat Loss

Habitat Loss

Coal’s share is plummeting.19

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Q1

2012

34%

36%

38%

40%

42%

44%

46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

52%

52%53%

53%52%

51%

52%53%

52%51%

52%51%

50%

51%50%

50%49% 49%

48%

44%45%

42%

36%

Coal

sha

re o

f gen

erati

on

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Electric Power Monthly. February 2012. Released April 30, 2012. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Short Term Energy Outlook. Released May 8, 2012

37

Why we are focused on decarbonizing the

electric grid?

Coal? In Texas? The role of coal on Texas

and U.S. climate change pollution

A quick look at the science of climate change.

Responsibility: The clean energy future of

Texas

Responsibility

Who created this problem?

Who did this? Who is responsible for the increase

in CO2 from 280 to 400 ppm?

China and India?

Who created this problem?

source: U.S. Dept of Energy – CDIAC – Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Global Carbon Project

Who created this problem? A closer look.

Who should lead the world?

Fair play

The citizens of the industrialized Democracies are responsible for much more carbon pollution

per person than anyone in China or India .

Responsibility to Clean Up Our Messes

Responsibility to Clean Up Our Messes

Responsibility to Lead the World

1. Climate change is real2. Texas leads in carbon pollution3. Coal power plants are a huge

source4. The drought will become the new

normal for our kids and grandkids

5. I can use your help

Thanks.

ERCOT Texas

Electricity Generation by

Fuel Source

Accelerate what is already happening by

creating market space

Global Efforts

World’s Top Coal Reserve holders

World’s Top Coal Reserve Holders

Gulf Export Terminals

Gulf Export Terminals

United Bulk Terminal, Louisiana Coal Export Facility

United Bulk Terminal Louisiana