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Transcript of Climate Change and Thermal Sensitivity of Commercial Marine Species Workshop on Project Results,...
Climate Change and Thermal Sensitivity of Commercial Marine
Species
Workshop on Project Results, Interpretation, and Feedback
24 October 2006
McGill Global Environmental and Climate Change Centre
• Gail Chmura
Huntsman Marine Science Centre• Lou Van Guelpen• Gerhard Pohle
Workshop schedule
1:00 – welcome, overview
1:10 – presentation of report results• Sea surface temperature changes NW Atlantic – Chmura• Impacts on commercial marine species – Van Guelpen & Pohle
2: 10 – interpretation of results – Dr. Fred Page, DFO St. Andrews
3:00 – break (catered)
3:20 – open forum - audience feedback
4:30 – closing remarks
Project objectives
• changes in distribution of commercially important species greenhouse warming increase in average global air temperature of 4Co by ~2090
• vulnerability to climate change/barriers to their adaptation
• fishing & aquaculture industries and resource managers - initial information
enable consideration of economic consequences and adaptations to upcoming changes
identify new opportunities
Organization
Part A:Sea Surface Temperatures – Present and Future
Part B:1. Impacts of climate change on species distributions
2. Sensitivity analysis
3. Synthesis
4. Commercial impacts
1. Impacts of climate change on species distributions
Methods
• Species
33 marine species of economic importance to Atlantic Canada
capture fishery, aquaculture, bio-invader, or trophically basal prey
northern or southern limit in Canadian Atlantic waters
thermal sensitivities at each life stage
Map legendCLIMATE FORCING
SCENARIOS :
• A2 = high pop. growth, less environmental concern
• B2 = low pop. growth, more
environmental concern
MODELS = 4
COLOURS:
• red = loss of thermal habitat
• green = increase
• blue = no change
• cross hatching = present distribution
Results
Every species – distribution will change
Species groups:
1. GREATEST HABITAT LOSS– in GSL, NS, NF, Lab.
2. LESSER HABITAT LOSS– in GSL, southern NS
3. LEAST HABITAT LOSS– in southern part of species range (~Cape Cod southward)
4. HABITAT GAIN– in GSL, NF, Lab.
Species examined with GREATEST HABITAT LOSS:
Plants Invertebrates Fishes
serrated wrack capelin
Atlantic salmon
GREATEST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic salmon(Salmo salar)
GREATEST HABITAT LOSS
Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)
• Distribution:habitat loss Cape Cod to tail
of Grand Bank, GSLno northward gain (study
does not reach northern range limit)
Species examined with LESSER HABITAT LOSS:
Plants Invertebrates Fishes
knotted wrack Calanus finmarchicus American plaice
kelp (3 species) northern shrimp
green sea urchin
LESSER HABITAT LOSSNorthern shrimp
(Pandalus borealis)
LESSER HABITAT LOSS Northern shrimp
(Pandalus borealis)
• Distribution:habitat loss Cape Cod
southward; perhaps GSL, Labrador
no northward gain (study does not reach northern range limit)
Species examined with LEAST HABITAT LOSS:
Plants Invertebrates Fishes
rockweed black clam Atlantic wolffish
Atlantic rock crab Atlantic menhaden
eastern oyster Atlantic herring
American lobster Atlantic cod
Atlantic long-fin squid Atlantic halibut
quahog haddock
soft-shelled clam silver hake
blue mussel
Atlantic deep-sea scallop
LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic cod
(Gadus morhua)
LEAST HABITAT LOSS Atlantic cod
(Gadus morhua)
• Distribution: loss of southern habitat
(southern New England southward); perhaps Labrador
no northward gain (study does not reach northern range limit)
Species examined with HABITAT GAIN:
Plants Invertebrates Fishes
blue crab
green crab
Japanese shore crab
common periwinkle
HABITAT GAINJapanese shore crab
(Hemigrapsus sanguineus)
HABITAT GAIN Japanese shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus)
• Special status: invasive species (Pacific); 1988 rapid dispersal, high densities
• Distribution: loss of southern habitat
(Chesapeake to Delaware Bay or
Long Island Sound large northward gain throughout
Canadian Atlantic should extend into Canada w/o
climate change
2. Sensitivity Analysis
Objective• to examine relative sensitivity (vulnerability) of each species to increasing SSTs
Methods
• literature on sensitivity to temperature: incomplete variable - geographic region, season, population, and source (i.e.,
experimental versus observational)
• considered a function of three parameters (in order of importance): mobility during each life history stage absolute temperature range experienced by a species =“stenothermalness” north/south distribution
• each scored• scores added• higher value = less sensitivity
Plants mostsensitive
Fishesgenerally leastsensitive
Sensitivefishes
Leastsensitiveinvertebrates
SensitivityResults
Lesssensitive invert.
3. Synthesis of analyses
Conclusion: degree of impact on distribution ~ stenothermal & N/S distribution
4. Commercial impacts
• project = 33 species• to date - 10 fishes, 5 invertebrates, 0 plants examined • examples following – represent species examined (mostly)
GREATEST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic salmon(Salmo salar)
GREATEST HABITAT LOSS
Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)
• negative impact - recreational fishery:
mortalitymore frequent closures of
rivers due to warm temps.
• may override progress of recovery and restoration programs
• positive impact - aquaculture longer growing season, faster
growth rate, lower winter mortality
expansion to other waters
b
GREATEST HABITAT LOSSCapelin
(Mallotus villosus)
GREATEST HABITATLOSS
Capelin (Mallotus villosus)
• negative impact – commercial fishery in most regions:
southern Gulf of MaineScotian ShelfGrand BankGulf of St. Lawrenceperhaps Labrador
LESSER HABITAT LOSSNorthern shrimp
(Pandalus borealis)
LESSER HABITAT LOSSNorthern shrimp(Pandalus borealis)
• negative impact – commercial fishing
southern GoM perhaps in southern GSL perhaps Labrador
LESSER HABITAT LOSSAmerican plaice
(Hippoglossoides platessoides)
LESSER HABITAT LOSSAmerican plaice
(Hippoglossoides platessoides)
• negative impact – commercial fishing
southern GoM perhaps GSL perhaps Labrador
LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic deep-sea scallop
(Placopecten magellanicus)
LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic deep-sea scallop
(Placopecten magellanicus)
• negative impact – commercial fishing
approx. NJ southward perhaps Labrador
LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic herring
(Clupea harengus)
LEAST HABITAT LOSSAtlantic herring
(Clupea harengus)
• negative impact – commercial fishing
approx. NJ or Cape Hatteras southward
perhaps Labrador
HABITAT GAINCommon periwinkle(Littorina littorina)
HABITAT GAINCommon periwinkle(Littorina littorina)
• negative impact – commercial fishing
minimal south of Cape Cod southern GoM may become
suboptimal perhaps GSL
• positive impact – potential new fishing
Labrador
HABITAT GAINBlue crab
(Callinectes sapidus)
• fishing – not yet examined• Important in US (comm. & recr.)• positive impact – potential new
fishing in Canada
Project funding:
Natural Resources Canada
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program
Project A515
Interpretation of Results
Dr. Fred PageSection Head
Ocean Sciences DivisionOcean SciencesDFO
St. Andrews Biological Station