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CLIMATE CHANGE AND THEDEMOGRAPHER'S VOCATIONAdrian C. Hayes

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COMMENTARY

CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE

DEMOGRAPHERS VOCATION

Adrian C. Hayes

The role of population in the causes and consequences of climate change needs to

be better understood; reaching equitable agreements on how to respond*locally,

nationally and internationally*could depend on it. So far only a relatively small number of

demographers have taken this responsibility seriously.

Human populations are complex entities and much of that complexity is implicated

in the way populations are coupled with ecosystems. When we examine the role of

population change in rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions we find that population

growth is significant, but in the present global context of rapidly rising consumption per

capita it is usually not the most important factor. The worlds population will probably

peak this century and most of the additional three billion people we expect by 2050 will

be the result of population momentum, not high fertility. Reducing population growth can

help reduce emissions, but not nearly enough to solve the problem. Meanwhile there are

many challenging research questions to explore regarding the changing composition of

populations associated with rising consumption. Urbanisation has an effect on emissions

and so do population ageing and household structure. Studying the causal chains in detail

can suggest realistic and cost-effective ways emissions can be reduced. The research is

challenging because many of the underlying processes are interdependent; rapidurbanisation in developing countries, for example, is often associated with rapid ageing

of the rural population.

Many of these processes are running at unprecedented rates in Asia. When the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its 4th Assessment Report in

2007, global emissions were already edging higher than even their highest scenario,

mainly because of the exceptionally high rates of economic growth achieved during the

current decade by large developing countries like China, India and Indonesia. We are living

in what Ross Garnaut has called the Platinum Age of Development. We know that long-

term mitigation requires breaking the nexus between economic growth and rising

emissions and some Asian countries (Japan, Singapore) are in the vanguard of attempts toaccomplish this. China overtook the United States (US) in GHG emissions from burning

fossil fuels in 2007, and just two years later it overtook the US in investment in renewable

energy.

When the IPCC did their initial work during the early 1990s they focused mainly on

anthropogenic effects and their mitigation. This was considered top priority and

stakeholders worried that too much attention on adaptation might cause policy-makers

to believe a massive reduction in emissions was not important after all if we could adapt to

climate change anyway. Unfortunately, the Kyoto Protocol was not implemented on

schedule and we are now faced with the urgent necessity of adapting to climate change.

Asian Population Studies, Vol. 6, No. 3, November 2010ISSN 1744-1730 print/1744-1749 online/10/030261-02 2010 Taylor & Francis DOI: 10.1080/17441730.2010.512758

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Even if emissions miraculously stabilised at current levels today, global surface

temperatures would continue to rise for decades because there is a substantial time-lag

between an increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations and the resulting temperature

rise due to radiative forcing.

The physical impacts of climate change will not be distributed evenly across the

globe and within geographical areas, some population groups will be better resourced toadapt to climate change than others. In broad terms we expect the rich to adapt better

than the poor, working-age adults better than elderly dependents, and the educated

better than those with little education. Farmers will be affected in different ways than

fishermen, urban populations will be affected differently than those living in rural areas.

However, national adaptation strategies need far more discriminating detail to be

effective. Demographers need to help identify the dimensions of population composition

most relevant to vulnerability and resilience.

Demographic research can also contribute to resolving issues of climate justice. It is

the rich industrial countries located in middle latitudes which are historically responsible

for most of the GHG concentrations in the atmosphere today, but it is the poorer

developing countries located closer to the equator which will experience most of the

adverse impacts. Mitigation is the classic prisoners dilemma. Every country stands to gain

by allowing other nations to contribute the most to mitigation while doing as little as

possible themselves. In sharing the cost, equity requires that we must find a fair balance

between rich and poor countries, between those that might be affected the most and

those least affected, and between citizens living today and those of future generations.

There are similar issues to negotiate within countries. Nations and vested interest groups

will clamour for special treatment and exceptions. Establishing equitable solutions is an

immense task of almost unimaginable complexity but it is worth noting that many of the

factors which need to be balanced, like costs and benefits to the current generation on the

one hand and to future generations on the other hand, are firmly rooted in population

dynamics. Once again demographic skills and insights can make a major contribution.

Many policy-makers, and others who influence public opinion, have a very simple

concept of population as being just a matter of population size and growth. They tend, as

a result, either to exaggerate the importance of population for addressing climate change

or dismiss it as irrelevant. Only the demographers more powerful concept of population

as a complex entity can clarify adequately the role of population in adaptation, mitigation

and climate justice. The last century has been called the Demographic Century, and the

present may be tagged the Century of Climate Change. Regardless, as demographers we

still live in interesting times.

Adrian C. Hayes (author to whom correspondence should be addressed), Australian

Demographic and Social Research Institute, Coombs Building, The Australian

National University, Canberra, ACT 020, Australia. Tel: 61 2 6125 9287; Email:

adrian.hayes@anu.edu.au

262 ADRIAN C. HAYES