Climate change and migration
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Transcript of Climate change and migration
Sandeep Kumar Malyan
Roll No.-10123
Chairperson:- Dr. Arti Bhatia
Seminar committee:- Dr. Bidisha Chakravarti Dr. Namita Das Saha
Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture IARI , New Delhi
Outline
Introduction Climate changeCauses of climate changeEvidences of climate change Impacts of climate changeCase studyConclusion
Introduction Climate changeCauses of climate changeEvidences of climate change Impacts of climate changeCase studyConclusion
First of al l, you should know that weather and climate
are not the same thing.
WEATHER IS:• Short term• Limited area• Can change
rapidly• Difficult to predict
WEATHER :is casual remarks about the atmospheric conditions of a certain place at a certain time.
CLIMATE IS:
• Long term• Wide area • Seasonal
changes• Measured
over long spans of time
Climate changeClimate change refers to a
change in the state of the climate
May be causes by natural or external forcing
According to UNFCCC, is define as “ A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable to time periods”
Source:- ESRL Global Monitoring Division [www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/]
Evidence of Climate Change comes from
many different sources
Average change in earth temp surface from 1951-1980 is 0.03oC and from 1985-2005 is 0.35oC
Average change in earth temp surface from 1951-1980 is 0.03oC and from 1985-2005 is 0.35oC
Evidences of climate change Evidences of climate change
Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
100 0.074±0.018
50 0.128±0.026
Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
Period Rate
Years °/decade
Source: IPCC 2007
Rise in sea-level from: present and futureRise in sea-level from: present and future
LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY
SPCIES MIGRATIONSSEA LEVEL RISE
AGRICULTURE
HUMAN HEALTH
FREQUENT EXTREME WEATHER FREQUENT NATURAL CALAMITIES
Rate of different Species Migration
Source: IPCC 2014
Climate change effect on population size on different rainforest birds species of Australia if no migration
Climate change effect on population size on different rainforest birds species of Australia if no migration
Sources: Shoo et al., 2005Sources: Shoo et al., 2005
Main threats to migratory bird speciesMain threats to migratory bird species
Sources: Shoo et al., 2005Sources: Shoo et al., 2005
Source: Carson et al., 2014
Different Dimensions of Migration Induced Different Dimensions of Migration Induced
CASE STUDY 1CASE STUDY 1
This case study was conducted in Japan to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on species migration using 25 coniferous
trees species.
This case study was conducted in Japan to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on species migration using 25 coniferous
trees species.
How study was conductedThey compiled species and climatic data from
Phytosociological Releve Database and Japan Metrological Agency respectively(from 1953-1982)
On the basis of date they found that plant vegetation ranges are control by four bioclimatic parameters: minimum temperature of coldest month, summer precipitation (May-September) winter precipitation (December-March) and warmth index.
They use: Regional Climate Model (RCM) developed by the Meteorological Research Institute for projection
They compiled species and climatic data from Phytosociological Releve Database and Japan Metrological Agency respectively(from 1953-1982)
On the basis of date they found that plant vegetation ranges are control by four bioclimatic parameters: minimum temperature of coldest month, summer precipitation (May-September) winter precipitation (December-March) and warmth index.
They use: Regional Climate Model (RCM) developed by the Meteorological Research Institute for projection
Map of Study area
Different coniferous species selected in study Different coniferous species selected in study
Change in Vertical ranges(Elevation) in different species
Change in Vertical ranges(Elevation) in different species
Future projection for 2081-2100
Main finding
• RCM model future projections shows that all coniferous tree species shifting upwards
• The projection also show latitudinal shifts varied from 365 km southward to 320 km northward
• Mean average shift is 293 m in elevation
Main finding cont…
Case Study 2Case Study 2
Study sitesThree apple growing districts of Himachal PradeshKullu : 1200-2500m above msl (annual mean temp
increases by 1.1 oC from 1995-2005 )Shimla:2200-3250 above msl (annual mean temp increases by 1.8 oC from 1995-2005 )Lahaul-spitti: 3550-5485 above msl (annual mean temp increases by 0.6 oC from 1995-2005 )
Study sitesThree apple growing districts of Himachal PradeshKullu : 1200-2500m above msl (annual mean temp
increases by 1.1 oC from 1995-2005 )Shimla:2200-3250 above msl (annual mean temp increases by 1.8 oC from 1995-2005 )Lahaul-spitti: 3550-5485 above msl (annual mean temp increases by 0.6 oC from 1995-2005 )
Main FindingMain Finding
Apple cultivation is shifting towards higher altitude in Himachal Pradesh because of temperature is increasing and snowfall is
decreeing in lower altitude
Apple cultivation is shifting towards higher altitude in Himachal Pradesh because of temperature is increasing and snowfall is
decreeing in lower altitude
CASE STUDYCASE STUDY
Distribution: Arctic Russia and Siberia to East and Western Asia
IUCN Classification: Critically endangered
Population estimate: 3,200
The objective of this study was predict impact of climate on Siberian crane migration This study was conducted by Zoological Society of London (ZSL) under the UNEP Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) and publishes report in 2010
The objective of this study was predict impact of climate on Siberian crane migration This study was conducted by Zoological Society of London (ZSL) under the UNEP Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) and publishes report in 2010
Breeding place: Arctic Russia and Western SiberiaThere are two populations of Cranes, one which
follows the East Asia Flyway, whilst the other follows the West/Central Flyway
For nesting, feeding, and roosting, the Siberian crane uses good visibility, with only shallow wetlands
Permafrost will be recede due to climate change, which directly effect the breeding place of Siberian Crane
Map of Migratory route and area for Siberian Cranes Map of Migratory route and area for Siberian Cranes
Use mutli-model datasets(MMDs) and projected for 2001-2100 for A1B scenario and by this future temperature predictions for the Eastern Asia region up to 2100 is done
The multi-model data set for the A1B emissions scenario, shows a median warming of 3.3°C by the end of this century
The East Asia region is expected to see a 3.0°C rise in the summer and 3.6°C rise in the winter.
The majority of this warming occurring in the winter
How study was conducted
Main finding
The study predict 70% of the northern tundra and southern taiga will be lost between 100 and 200 years time, in the shorter‐term it is also very likely that Siberian Cranes will be adversely affected by climate‐related breeding habitat loss , so in such condition they have to moves towards poles
The study predict 70% of the northern tundra and southern taiga will be lost between 100 and 200 years time, in the shorter‐term it is also very likely that Siberian Cranes will be adversely affected by climate‐related breeding habitat loss , so in such condition they have to moves towards poles
CASE STUDY
Bangladesh is one the worst effected country by climate change in the world.
According to ranking of International Strategies for Disaster Reduction in term of human exposure:
1st in Flood 3rd in Tsunami 6th in Cyclone
Bangladesh is one the worst effected country by climate change in the world.
According to ranking of International Strategies for Disaster Reduction in term of human exposure:
1st in Flood 3rd in Tsunami 6th in Cyclone
The case study was conducted by Tahera Aktar from Environment Unit of Unnayan Onneshan, a multidisciplinary Policy research Centre, Dhakha Bangladesh to evaluate the potential impact of climate change Environmental refugees
The case study was conducted by Tahera Aktar from Environment Unit of Unnayan Onneshan, a multidisciplinary Policy research Centre, Dhakha Bangladesh to evaluate the potential impact of climate change Environmental refugees
Bangladesh is about 80% flatlands, and 20% land of the land is 1 meter or less above sea level.
It is a critical zone in terms of frequent coastal floods, cyclones and tidal surges as shown in map
Bangladesh is about 80% flatlands, and 20% land of the land is 1 meter or less above sea level.
It is a critical zone in terms of frequent coastal floods, cyclones and tidal surges as shown in map
Route map of Bangladeshi Environmental refugees
Route map of Bangladeshi Environmental refugees
Total displaced by all events(flood, drought and cyclone)
Total displaced flood only
Rate of increases over the year is about 6% on average of total pollution And at this rate by 2020 environmental migration will account about 42 % of total
population
Rate of increases over the year is about 6% on average of total pollution And at this rate by 2020 environmental migration will account about 42 % of total
population
Main findingMain findingStudy reveal that on average 2% (3 million) in cyclone,
25% (39 million) in flood, 0.1% (50,000)in river bank erosion and 3% (5 million) in drought respectively are displaced over the years
Flood is the biggest disaster, displacing one‐fourth of the total population in Bangladesh
Study also reported that, Bangladesh is expected to have massive environmental displacement, which is calculated to be about 49 million, 63 million and 78 million in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. The growth in environmental displacement is found to be 42% of the total populations in 2020
Study reveal that on average 2% (3 million) in cyclone, 25% (39 million) in flood, 0.1% (50,000)in river bank erosion and 3% (5 million) in drought respectively are displaced over the years
Flood is the biggest disaster, displacing one‐fourth of the total population in Bangladesh
Study also reported that, Bangladesh is expected to have massive environmental displacement, which is calculated to be about 49 million, 63 million and 78 million in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. The growth in environmental displacement is found to be 42% of the total populations in 2020
Conclusion Climate change result in many extreme weather condition
and natural disaster so it biggest challenge in the 21st century for policymaker
Climate change is effected both floral and fauna on this earth
As climate change result in sea level rise it is biggest threat for human population as population density is more on costal area as compare to inland population
Till now maximum development is done on the cost of environment but in future to mitigate climate change we should go for sustainable development
Thank You