CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA’S ENERGY POLICY

DR. ANSHU BHARADWAJ CENTER FOR STUDY OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY & POLICY, BANGALORE

ASIAN CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY : TRENDS AND POLICY JULY 22, 2011

INDIA’S PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION :

A SNAPSHOT

CSTEP July 2011Source : BP statistical review of world energy, 2011; CSTEP

In 2010 alone, India’s primary energy consumption grew by 9.2%

INDIA'S ENERGY ASPIRATIONS

• Annual GDP growth projection : 8 – 9%• Elasticity of electricity : GDP ~ 0.95• Net electricity generation required in 2020 : 1850 billion units

– per capita electricity consumption in 2020 : ~ 1200 kWh– Still, well below world average of 2800 kWh

• India has announced intent to reduce CO2 intensity: GDP by 20-25% from 2005 levels by 2020

• Multiple objectives for Indian energy policy – Access for all– Reliability– Low cost– Low carbon– Energy Security

CSTEP July 2011

ELECTRIC POWER• Current Capacity : 173,855 MW (utility)

– 5th largest in the world

• Low per capita electricity consumption– India 717 kWh– US 14,000 kWh– China 2500 kWh– World 2800 kWh

• Peak shortage ~ 15%• 800,000 MW in 2030 – 40

– ~ 25,000 MW per year

• Environmental concerns – India 3rd largest emitter of CO2 behind China and US– 38% of emissions from power sector

• Energy security concerns– 67% power from coal-based thermal plants - need to depend on imports– Prototype breeder reactors to exploit thorium reserves

CSTEP July 2011

ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS : GHG EMISSIONS IN INDIA (2007)

CSTEP July 2011

ENERGY RESOURCE AVAILABILITY IN INDIA

Source Capital cost (crores/MW)

Emissions (t CO2-eq/Mwh)

Reserves Longevity

Coal 4-5 1.1 10 5820 MT 70 years

Oil 2.5 0.62 1200 MT ~ 10 years

Gas 3.5 0.47 1.5 TCM ~ 20 years

Hydro 6- 20 (Site and size dependant)

0 148.7 GW NA

Nuclear 8-13 0 70,000 tonnes of Uranium~ 200 tonnes of Pu

40 years with Uranium

CSTEP July 2011

Source : BP statistical review report, NHPC,NTPC

ENERGY SECURITY CONCERNS

CSTEP July 2011

Source : Telegraph, FT

PROJECTED FUEL MIX IN 2020 • Required capacity in 2020 assuming 8% growth = 387,280 MW in BAU

scenario

CSTEP July 2011 Source : Interim report, Planning commission 2011

• How do we grow to ~ 2,000 billion kWh by 2020

• How do we get 3,00 billion kWh of low-carbon power?

• What fuel options & technologies? • Wind• Nuclear,• Solar• Hydro • Bio-fuels• Carbon Sequestration• Hydrogen & fuel cells• Hybrid cars

• Investments, research, policies?

HOW TO GROW AND BE SUSTAINABLE?

CSTEP July 2011

WIND POWER • Power proportional to V 3

• Cost of generation reasonable: ~ Rs 3 per kWh

– Economics sensitive to wind speeds

• World total installed 194,000 MW

• India: – Potential: 50,000 MW based on hub height

of 50 m and 2% land usage– Recent studies offer reassessed potential

at 80m 6-7% land usage• Onshore - 676, 000 MW• Offshore - 214,000 MW

– Intermittent; grid stability is a concern

CSTEP July 2011

China 44, 733 MW

US 40,180 MW

Germany 27,215 MW

Spain 20,676 MW

India 13,000 MW

India - 5th in wind capacity

SOLAR POWER

• JNNSM launched in 2010 targets 22,000 MW by 2022– Phase 1 ( until March 2013)

• Target of 1300 MW : 800 MW PV and 500 MW CSP • 25 years of guaranteed feed in tariff

– Off-grid PV• Target of 2000 MW by 2022• Rural applications where grid is unviable or unreachable

– Challenges• High nominal cost of generation : ~ Rs 15 per kWh• Water scarcity issues for CSP• Requirement of skilled personnel

CSTEP July 2011

NUCLEAR POWER

• Installed Capacity 4780 MW• Generation ~ 23 Billion kWh

(2.5 % of total)

• Domestic Uranium reserves ~ 61,000 Tons– Poor quality ore (0.01% - 0.05% Uranium)

• Large Thorium deposits– But, Thorium is fertile and has to be converted to fissile U233 in a reactor

• Phase Nuclear Program– Phase I Build Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors using domestic Uranium– Phase II Reprocess spent fuel from Phase I to get Plutonium for Breeder Reactors– Phase III Use U233 (obtained from Thorium) and use it with Plutonium

• Domestic Uranium reserves can sustain 10,000 MW PHWR for 40 years– Low capacity factors due to Uranium mining constraints

CSTEP July 2011

INDIAN NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM

Type Operating Projections (2020)

Projections (2030)

Heavy Water Reactors

4,460 MW 10,000 MW 10,000 MW

Light Water Reactors

320 MW 9,300 MW 22,000 MW

Fast Breeder Reactors

- 1,500 MW 1,500 MW

Total 4780 MW 20,800 MW 33,500 MW

Nuclear capacity presently under construction : 5300 MW

CSTEP June 2011

ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS : COMPARISON

Source : LBNL, CERC , CSTEP & NPCILCSTEP July 2011

DEMAND-SIDE MEASURES : SMART GRIDS • Indian Institute of Science & CSTEP

– “Smart grid” test bed in IISc campus– Consortium of technology provider companies

• Ministry of Power (under R-APDRP)

BIOFUEL POTENTIAL

• India’s total land area 328 million hectares (mha)– Cultivated 142 mha– Cultivable wasteland 30 mha– Rice 40 mha– Wheat 26 mha

• Hazardous to divert agricultural area for bio-fuels.

• If entire wasteland used for growing bio-fuels, – Produce about 30 million tons of bio-oil – 10% of oil demand by 2031.

• Advisable to cultivate on such a large area?

CSTEP July 2011

ETHANOL OPPORTUNITIES

• Increase yield of sugarcane using drip irrigation & fertigation– Present average yield ~ 80 tons per ha– Using drip irrigation & fertigation 150 tons per ha

• Sweet sorghum:– Less water intensive than sugarcane– Two crops a year

• Cellulosic ethanol from agro-forest residues such as bagasse, rice husk, wood chips, crop residues. – Technology needs to be developed

CSTEP July 2011

WHAT CAN 1 HECTARE DO?

Bio-Fuels indirectly use solar energy

Why not do it directly?

Solar

Option 1Sugarcane

Option 2Corn Ethanol

Option 3Jatropha

Option 4Sweet Sorghum

Option 5Solar

Sugarcane:80 tons

No SugarCane juice used to make ethanol.

Ethanol:6000 Liter per hectare

Corn Yield:7500 Kg per hectare

Ethanol: 0.37 Liter per kg

2800 Liter per hectare

2000 to 3000 Trees per hectare

Seed yield: 1 to 2 Kg per tree

Oil Yield: 1 to 1.5 Ton per hectare

Stalk yield: 35 – 50 tons per hectare

Juice Extraction45 – 50%

Ethanol: 2500 to 3500 Liters per hectare

Average daily radiation:5- 6 kWh/m2250 days of sunshine

50% area covered by PV panels

10% Efficiency of solar cells

CSTEP July 2011

LAND REQUIRED(HA/1000 MW)

Source : NPCIL & CSTEP

CSTEP July 2011

POTENTIAL R&D DOMAINS

• New and affordable materials for photovoltaic• Clean coal technologies; carbon capture and sequestration• Low-speed wind power• Cellulosic ethanol• Efficient and affordable hybrids, electric vehicles• Energy storage – efficient batteries and condensers• Demand side management of power• Trained human resource

CSTEP July 2011