PowerPoint Presentation

CLIMATE CHANGEANDFOOD PRODUCTIONGlenn Stone

Part 31

1Global Warming and Agriculture

Will GW lead to reduced global food production?Possibly.

Will GW lead to less nutritious food?Almost certainly. But agricultural technology developers have been developing less nutritious foods for a long time.

Will GW lead to isolated food crises?

Will agricultural technology companies meet the challenges of GW?2

See e.g. Wheeler & von Braun on debates on CO2 effects.

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3GW will increasingly disrupt peoples ability to grow cropsextreme weather events cause disclocationsflooding of fieldsdestruction of crops

Extreme weather events affect developed and developing nations alike

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Technological solutions?

Technologies like submergence-tolerant rice should be helpful with some levels of flooding, but not extreme weather events.

Those will require political and economic solutions more than technological ones.

Will isolated food crises cause famines?Famines are rarely caused by underproduction, but by people not being able to grow crops at all or not get access to the food

FAMINEDEATHS (approx)PRIMARY CAUSEKEY FACTChina Great Leap Forward 1959-6130mMao disrupted most key aspects of wheat and rice productionPopulation fed itself before and after Maos disruptionsSoviet (esp. Ukraine Black Famine) 1932-337mStalin forced collectivizationExported millions of tons of grain to Europe to finance 5 Year PlanIreland Potato Famine 1845-481.5mBlight on potatoes that peasants had to exclusively subsist onGrain & pork exports to England rose throughout famine6

Even if the storm costs $14 billioneven $2 billion in payouts could be optimistic

But at least the Philippines has a fairly prosperous disporic community7

Sub-Saharan African countries dont.

Effects of severe drought, Ethiopia, 2011. Government bailout: bupkis.In the US, the severe drought of 1988 led to crop yields dropping by 37%. Congress awarded farmers a $3-billion bailout.8

Global Warming and Agriculture

Will GW lead to reduced global food production?Possibly.

Will GW lead to less nutritious food?Almost certainly.

Will GW lead to isolated food crises?With absolute certainty. But isolated food crises will require political and economic solutions.

Will agricultural technology companies meet the challenges of GW?

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See e.g. Wheeler & von Braun on debates on CO2 effects.

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