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![Page 1: Climate change and energy security BIICL Annual Conference 2010 11 th June 2010 Professor Julia King CBE FREng Aston University Birmingham Member of the.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e365503460f94b2584d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate change and energy security
BIICL Annual Conference 2010 11th June 2010
Professor Julia King CBE FREngAston University BirminghamMember of the Committee on Climate Change
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● Climate change: why are we worried?
● Global and national targets
● UK – energy use and climate change
● Energy security and climate change mitigation
● Conclusions
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● Business as usual: a high probability of global average temperature rise in excess of 4o, possibly as early as 2060
● Europe 8o warmer,12o on hottest day
● North America 10 – 12o warmer: Toronto, Chicago, New York, Washington DC
● Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes
● Rice yields down 30% in China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia
● By 2080 40% of the world’s population has less than 1000 litres of water per year that’s just 3 litres a day or a bath a month
● 20 - 30% plant and animal species at high risk of extinction
● Sustained global temperature increase of 2o: 20 – 40% decline in rainforest
The impacts of climate change
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BAU: land with decreased crop suitability in 2100
Met Office 2009
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Or…security implications of climate change
Climate change
Public health
Migration and refugees Rise in extremism in
badly affected areas
Public discontent/disorder
Failure of critical infrastructure
Communications and transport
Strategic products and technologies
International relations
Energy security
Uninsurable risks
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The impacts of climate change
Source: IPCC
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● Climate change: why are we worried?
● Global and national targets
● UK – energy use and climate change
● Energy security and climate change mitigation
● Conclusions
![Page 8: Climate change and energy security BIICL Annual Conference 2010 11 th June 2010 Professor Julia King CBE FREng Aston University Birmingham Member of the.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e365503460f94b2584d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Required global emissions reduction
Required global emissions reduction of 50%
• 20-24 GtCO2e emissions in 2050
• 8-10 GtCO2e in 2100
Required global emissions reduction of 50%
• 20-24 GtCO2e emissions in 2050
• 8-10 GtCO2e in 2100
Why?• Advances in science• Actual emissions higher
than forecast
Why?• Advances in science• Actual emissions higher
than forecast
Assessment of damageDecision rule:• keep temperature
change close to 2°C and probability of 4°C increase at very low levels
Assessment of damageDecision rule:• keep temperature
change close to 2°C and probability of 4°C increase at very low levels
Global trajectories considered
• Early or later peak (2015 vs. 2030)
• 3%/4% annual emissions reduction
Global trajectories considered
• Early or later peak (2015 vs. 2030)
• 3%/4% annual emissions reduction
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Appropriate developed country/UK contribution
50% global reduction 50% global reduction
Burden share• Alternative methodologies (contract and
converge, intensity convergence, triptych etc.)
• Equal per capita emissions:
I 20-24 GtCO2e global total in 2050
I implies 2.1-2.6 tCO2e per capita
Burden share• Alternative methodologies (contract and
converge, intensity convergence, triptych etc.)
• Equal per capita emissions:
I 20-24 GtCO2e global total in 2050
I implies 2.1-2.6 tCO2e per capita
All GHGsAll GHGsAviation and shipping included Aviation and shipping included
2.1-2.6 CO2e per capita gives a UK reduction of at least 80% by 2050
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● In 2050 total CO2e per head needs to be
2.1 – 2.6 tonnes per annum
● A return flight to Los Angeles for 1 person
2.5 tonnes
● An average new car today (160g/km), driven
15,000km per year, emits
2.4 tonnes per annum
So what does that mean?
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Global CO2 emissions
Source: WRI (2006)
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Global CO2 emissions
Source: WRI (2006)
Energy emissions
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How do we deal with global issues?
● Copenhagen, December 2009
● 120 Heads of State
● Agreement to keep below 2o
● No binding global agreement to reduce emissions
● But individual country targets
● now received from over 100 countries
● Potential to deliver 50% global reduction
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● Climate change: why are we worried?
● Global and national targets
● UK – energy use and emissions
● Energy security and climate change mitigation
● Conclusions
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178
135
97
109
94
42
2007 emissions
International aviation & international shipping*
UK non-CO2 GHGs
Other CO2
Industrial CO2 (heat & industrial processes)
Residential, public & commercial heat
Domestic transport
Electricity generation
* bunker fuels basis 2050 objective
159 Mt CO2e
679 Mt CO2e
76% cut (= 80% vs. 1990)
The scale of the UK CO2 challenge
Committee on Climate Change October 2009
Energyemissions
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Meeting required reductions
Reducing power sector emissions:
Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Reducing power sector emissions:
Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Lifestyle change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry
Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Lifestyle change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry
Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Bio fuels (first vs. second
generation)
Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Bio fuels (first vs. second
generation)
Application of power to transport
and heat
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Power generation to 2050
Power sector decarbonisation
Emissions intensity to 2050
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UK electricity installed capacity
DECC 2009
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UK electricity generation 1996 - 2008
DECC 2009
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Capacity and generating mix 2008 & 2020
CCC 2009
Generating capacity Generating mix
By 2020:Extra 23GW wind: 27GW total3 new nuclear plantsCCS demonstration plants
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UK emissions 2006
2006 emissions
International aviation & shipping*
UK non-CO2 GHGs
Other CO2
Industry (heat & industrial processes)
Residential & Commercial heat
Domestic transport
Electricity Generation
* bunker fuels basis
695 Mt CO2e
Non-energy emissions
Oil
Oil, Gas, Coal,Electricity, Renewables
Oil, Gas, Coal,Electricity, Renewables
Oil,Renewables
Gas, Coal,Nuclear,Renewables
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● Climate change: why are we worried?
● Global and national targets
● UK – energy use and climate change
● Energy security and climate change mitigation
● Conclusions
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Energy security
● Physical security: avoiding involuntary
interruptions to supply
● Price security: avoiding spikes and providing
energy at reasonable prices to consumers
● Geopolitical security: ensuring the UK retains
independence in foreign policy by avoiding
dependence for energy on particular nationsDECC EMO 2008
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Primary energy supply in the UK
Global energy suppliesDECC Energy Indicators
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UK energy supply
● 2007 net importer – 20% of energy supply
● Crude oil: net imports of 7.5% of consumption
● Gas: 21% imported
● Coal: 72% imported
● 2025 increasing levels of imports:
● Crude oil: 61% imported
● Gas: 63% imported
● Coal: predictions less clear
● 2050 continuing upward trend in % imported
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Where will our energy come from?
IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
By 2030 world energy demand will be up by 45%Fossil fuels sourced from less stable areas of the world
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Some key import routes and suppliers for the future
● Oil and Gas
● Strait of Hormuz
● Suez Canal
● ….
● Gas
● Russia
● Turkey
● Coal
● Russia
Fossil fuel dependency → increasing energy insecurity
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Capacity and generating mix 2008 & 2020
CCC 2009
Generating capacity Generating mix
By 2020:Extra 23GW wind: 27GW total3 new nuclear plantsCCS demonstration plants
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Meeting required reductions
Reducing power sector emissions:
Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Reducing power sector emissions:
Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Lifestyle change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry
Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Lifestyle change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry
Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Bio fuels (first vs. second
generation)
Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Bio fuels (first vs. second
generation)
Application of power to transport
and heat
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More radical renewables and nuclear strategies are feasible
CCC 2009
High feasible scenario for operational wind: 39% of generation
Severn barrage 8.6MW: 10% of generation………..
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Existing low carbon electricity markets
CCC 2009
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● Climate change: why are we worried?
● Global and national targets
● UK – energy use and climate change
● Energy security and climate change mitigation
● Conclusions
![Page 33: Climate change and energy security BIICL Annual Conference 2010 11 th June 2010 Professor Julia King CBE FREng Aston University Birmingham Member of the.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649e365503460f94b2584d/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Conclusions
● Fossil fuel dependency → increasing energy
insecurity and increased global insecurity and
instability
● Climate change mitigation → increasing energy
security and global stability
● Security, energy security, climate change impacts
and climate change mitigation are closely linked
● Joined-up thinking and planning are required to
ensure we address them together
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UK path to an 80% or more reduction in 2050
2050 2008
Wind and nuclear
Energy efficiency improvement
Renewable heat
Electric heat
Electric cars/plug in hybrids
20201-2% of GDP
in 2050
Other renewable and CCS