CLIMATE CHANGE AND DROUGHT MONITORING IN REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

IN THE XXI CENTURY

Suzana Alcinova Monevska

Silvana Stevkova

Hydrometeorological Institute of

Republic of Macedonia

• Total area of 25,713 km2• Population of cca 2.5 mil.

Length of the Macedonian Border in km

Albania 191 Bulgaria 165 Greece 262 Serbia 232

Total 850

Republic of Macedonia

Republic of Macedonia

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ratified on 4th December 1997

- The First NCCC- 2003

- The Second NCCC- 2008

• CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR MACEDONIA, REVIEW OF METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS, DOC. DR. KLEMEN

BERGANT, UNIVERSITY OF NOVA GORICA, CENTRE FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, SLOVENIA

General circulation models: model label, country of development, period for which the data were used, the approximate horizontal resolution of data

• As the simulations of future climate with GCMs are based on a number of emission scenarios, usually SRES A2 and B2, the local climate change projection were additionally scaled to other marker SRES emission scenarios (A1T, A1b, A1Fl, B1)

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE TERRITORY

OF REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA IN THE SNCCC

Projected changes of average air temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) for Macedonia

  2025 2050 2075 2100

Low 0,9 1,6 2,2 2,7

Mean 1,0 1,9 2,9 3,8

High 1,1 2,1 3,6 5,4

  2025 2050 2075 2100

Low -1 -2 -4 -5

Mean -3 -5 -8 -13

High -6 -7 -12 -21

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Low

Mean

High

-based on direct GCM output interpolated to geographic location 21.5°E and 41.5°N with regard to the period 1990.

Mean: average across different emission scenarios and different GCMs, Low/High: minimum/maximum across different scenarios averaged across different GCMs.

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Low

Mean

High

Deficiencies of direct GCM outputs

• only a rough description of expected climate change (mostly the changes of average conditions on the level of entire country).

• spatial and temporal variability of meteorological parameters and heterogeneous climate/ topography not considered

• can present a benchmark for more detailed methods for regional projection of future climate change

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1. Region with sub-Mediterranean climate 2. Region with moderate-continental-sub-Mediterranean 3. Region with hot continental 4. Region with cold continental climate.5a. Region with sub-forest-continental-mountainous 5b. Region with forest-continental mountainous 6. Region with sub-alpine mountainous climate 7. Region with alpine mountainous climate

Regional projected changes of average air temperature (°C)

Projected changes of average daily air temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) for

central part of Macedonia under a combination of sub-Mediterranean and continental climate impacts (represented by locations Veles, Strumica, Skopje-Petrovec, Štip) and

south-eastern part of Macedonia under the sub-Mediterranean climate impacts (represented by locations Gevgelija and Nov Dojran).

WINTER SPRING SUMMER AUTUMN ANNUAL

2025 2050 2075 2100

2025 2050 2075 2100

2025 2050 2075 2100

2025 2050 2075 2100

2025 2050 2075 2100

T 1.0 2.3 3.2 4.3 1.1 2.1 3.1 4.3 1.4 2.6 4 5.4 1.0 1.8 3.0 3.9 1.1 2.2 3.3 4.5

RR 0 1 2 -1 -5 -7 -11 -14 -6 -11 -18 -23 -1 -6 -11 -17 -3 -6 -9 -13

T 1.0 2.1 2.9 3.8 1.1 2.1 3.1 4.3 1.5 2.9 4.5 6.0 1.1 2.0 3.3 4.3 1.2 2.3 3.4 4.6

RR -2 0 -1 -3 -6 -8 -13 -17 -4 -9 -14 -19 1 -4 -9 -14 -3 -5 -9 -12

Projected changes of average annual air temperaturebased on direct GCM output (2050) for different regions

Mean: average across different emission scenarios and different GCMs,

Low/High: minimum/maximum across different scenarios averaged across different GCMs

2.2°C (1.9-2.5)

2.3°C (2.0-2.6)

2.6°C (2.3-3.0)

2.5°C(2.2-2.9)

1.9°C(1.7-2.2)

2.6°C (2.3-3.0)

2.2°C (2.0-2.6)

Projected changes of average annual air temperaturebased on direct GCM output (2100) for different regions

4.5°C (3.1-6.3)

4.6°C (3.2-6.5)

5.3°C (3.7-7.4)

5.1°C(3.6-7.2)

3.9°C(2.7-5.5)

5.3°C (3.7-7.4)

4.6°C (3.2-6.4)

-6% (-3 to-8)

-3% (-1 to-5)

-3% (0 to-5)

-5% (-3 to-8)-5% (-1 to-7)

-3% (-1 to-5)

-5% (-2 to-7)

Projected changes of annual precipitationbased on direct GCM output (2050) for different regions

-13% (-6 to-21)

-8% (-2 to-15)

-8% (-2 to-14)

-13% (-6 to-21)-12% (-5 to-20)

-8% (-2 to-15)

-4% (-10 to-17)

Projected changes of annual precipitationbased on direct GCM output (2100) for different regions

Projected global averaged surface warming at the end of the 21st century and examples of some projected regional impacts (Europe)

(IPCC AR4)

…. In Southern Europe, climate change is projected to worsen conditions (high temperatures and drought) in a region already vulnerable to climate variability, and to reduce water availability, hydropower potential, summer tourism and, in general, crop productivity….

…. high confidence that many semi-arid areas (e.g. Mediterranean basin) will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change…

Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe –

DMCSEE

• South East Europe Program • Aim of the project: improve drought preparedness and help

to reduce drought impacts• Co-funded by the European Union and the partner

countries• 2009-2011, 2.2 M EUR• 15 institutes from 9 countries (Slovenia, Hungary, Bulgaria,

Greece, Croatia,Serbia, Montenegro, FYROM, Albania)• Lead partner: Environmental Agency of Slovenia• Hydrometeorological Service of Republic of Macedonia

joined the project in December 2010 • Web: www.dmcsee.org

Average Palfai drought index (PaDI) 1971-2000

Projected Palfai drought index (PaDI) 2100

Standard Precipitation Index SPI12 (2001)

SPI Category

> 2.0 Extremely wet 1.5- 2.0 Severely wet 1.0- 1.5 Moderately wet-1.0- 1.0 Near normal-1.0- -1.5 Moderately dry-1.5- -2.0 Severely dry < -2.0 Extremely dry

Conclusions

• Different climatic regions of Macedonia will respond slightly different on large scale climate changes

• Need for further investigations for critical review of present results with awareness of all the associated uncertainties

• Drought management policies and tools are necessary for adaptation measures

• International cooperation and sharing knowledge

Thanks for your attention

www.meteo.gov.mk

E-mail: smonevska@meteo.gov.mk

silvanas@meteo.gov.mk