Midgley&Sanders (Eds) 2012 - Lake Dwellings After Robert Munro
Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for...
-
Upload
ezra-hudson -
Category
Documents
-
view
226 -
download
6
Transcript of Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for...
![Page 1: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing
impacts and their implications for conservation
Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes
National Botanical Institute, Cape Town
With acknowledgements: Paul Williams, London Nat Hist Mus
![Page 2: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Conservation investment
![Page 4: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Conservation investment
Conserve species under natural conditionsConserve ecosystems and their natural processesConserve habitats for maintaining biodiversity
Maintain key processes (eg water yield)Support tourism and ecotourism
Support livelihoods (eg wildflower, medicinal)Support commercial agri-business
![Page 5: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Protected Areas often selected ad hoc, developed before good species data were available,
on land not wanted or less valuable
Biodiversity no longer static, but dynamic!
Conservation investment
![Page 6: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
We address two main problems
• How to predict climate change impacts on ecosystems and species (biodiversity)
• How to assess ability of conservation strategies (current PA network) to cope with these impacts
![Page 7: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Species distribution
Bioclimatic modeling methodBioclimatic modeling method
Environmental variables
34o 36o
![Page 8: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
# re
cord
s
34o 36o
Maximum temperature
Max temp envelope
Species distribution
Bioclimatic modeling methodBioclimatic modeling method
Environmental variables
34o 36o
![Page 9: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Automated methods
Arcview
Access
SPlus
Grads
Data matching
Species data
Statistical model
Climate data
Future projectionrisk assessment
![Page 11: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Protea Atlas database (NBI)330 species (Proteaceae), ~ 40 000 localities
![Page 12: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
HadCM2
![Page 13: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Overall threat of climate change to Proteaceae diversity
![Page 14: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Fynbos Biome distribution: current and future
Lowland species
Montane species
![Page 15: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Leucospermum tomentosum distribution: current and ~2050(HadCM2 excluding sulphates)
![Page 16: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Protea lacticolor distribution: current and future(HadCM2 excluding sulphates)
20 km
![Page 17: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
contract(highest risk)
persist(safe) colonize
(high risk)
Displacement risk = 1 – persist/current
![Page 18: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Proteaceae - displacement risk
y = 0.8736e-0.0003x
R2 = 0.48
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Present Range Size (km2)
Ris
k o
f d
isp
lac
em
en
t
![Page 19: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
contract(highest risk)
persist(safe) colonize
(high risk)
Extinction risk proportional to range loss(with and without dispersal)
![Page 20: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Uncertainties
Climate scenariosSpatial climate data (historic, current)
Species distribution dataBioclimatic modelling approach
Human land useDispersal and establishment
![Page 22: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Ant-dispersal Wind-dispersal
Knowledge about dispersal syndromes is critical
![Page 23: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
current 2050 dispersal 2050 no dispersal
Ran
ge
size
(1'
x1' p
ixel
s)
Range size changes (HadCM2)(~250 Proteaceae, 2000 to ~2050)
![Page 24: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Automated methods
Arcview
Access
SPlus
Grads
Data matching
Species data
Statistical model
Climate data
Future projectionrisk assessment
Dynamic rangemodelling method
Protected arearisk analysis
Simple rangeshift assumptions
![Page 25: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Time-slice models 2000 2010 2020
2030 2040 2050
(se scop)
![Page 26: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Richness of dispersal pathways for the 18 species that are committed to migration
![Page 27: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Human land use, intensity of transformation
Dispersal pathways
![Page 28: Climate change and biodiversity: Developing tools for assessing impacts and their implications for conservation Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062314/56649e055503460f94af1538/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Automated methods
Arcview
Access
SPlus
Grads
Data matching
Species data
Statistical model
Climate data
Future projectionrisk assessment
Dynamic rangemodelling method
Protected arearisk analysis
Simple rangeshift assumptions