Climate Change and Air Quality: Context and Challenges
Transcript of Climate Change and Air Quality: Context and Challenges
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Dr. Quentin ChiottiAir Programme Director
and Senior [email protected]
www.pollutionprobe.org
Climate Change and Air Quality: Context and
Challenges
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Pollution Probe is a Canadian non-profit organization that:
• Defines environmental problems through research
• Promotes understanding through education• Presses for practical solutions through advocacy
Pollution Probe is dedicated to achieving positive and tangible
environmental change.
Mission Statement
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Earth’s Fragile Atmosphere
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The Earth at Night
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Smog: risk of cardio/respiratory illnesses – Ontario Medical Association (OMA) estimates 1,900 premature deaths per year Acid Rain: damage to vegetation, lakes and streams Mercury: accumulation in food chain - harmful to wildlife and humans
Climate Change: risk of severe weather and fluctuating water levels, and health effects such as death due to heat and increased smog episodes.
Ozone depletion: risk of skin cancer and cataracts, lower agricultural yields.
Toxics: risk of cancer, respiratory irritation, developmental effects in children and fetuses, and risk to the environment and ecosystems (e.g., reproductive systems in organisms, etc.) and odour.
Air standards: serve to protect local communities from health and environmental impacts.
Air Issues: Scales
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MUNICIPALITIES80% Population
50% GHG Emissions
Mitigation and AdaptationAtmospheric Issues
Climate ChangeStratospheric Ozone
DepletionAcid RainAir Quality
Hazardous AirbornePollutants
EmissionsCO2
CH4
N2O
HCFCs
SF6
NOX
SO2
VOCs
PM
Hg
ImpactsWater
Ecosystems
Forests
Agriculture
Energy
Transportation
Infrastructure
Human Health
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WHAT IS SMOG?
Smog
O3 PM
Primary PM
Secondary PM
NOX
SO2
VOCs
NH3
NOX
VOCs
• Ozone and fine particulate (PM10 and PM2.5) are key constituents of smog
• Ozone is formed from NO2and VOCs under sunlight conditions
• Fine PM can be emitted as a primary pollutant as well as formed from precursor gases such as SO2, NO2 and VOCs
• Summer smog: PM and O3
• Winter smog: primarily fine PM
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Health Effects• Over 100 studies in as many cities have
examined the relationship between air pollution and mortality, others morbidity
• While individual studies may lack precision, the combined weight of evidence is compelling
• Air Pollution Kills
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Health Effects• OMA (2005) study
– estimated 5,829 premature deaths annually
– 16,807 hospital admissions– 59,696 emergency room visits– 29,292,100 minor illness days
• Health Canada & Environment Canada (2005) study– 2,900 premature deaths in 4
Ontario cities• Toronto Public Health (2004) study
– 1,700 premature deaths and 6,000 hospital admissions annually
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SO2 Concentrations
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NO2 Concentrations
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O3 1-Hr Max Concentrations
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4th Highest O3 levels at Selected Sites Across Ontario
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Background Levels: O3 Seasonal Means
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Spatial Pattern
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Smog Advisories/AlertsYear Advisories Days1993 1 11994 2 61995 6 141996 3 51997 3 61998 3 81999 5 92000 3 42001 7 232002 10 272003 7 19 2004 6 142005 31 55
• yellow: 1980 - 1992
• red: 1993 - 2003
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Key Findings• On high ozone concentration
days (when 8-hr running average above CWS of 65 ppb), setting Ontario emissions to zero would have reduced ambient ozone concentrations by 9 percent in the GTA
• Largest contribution due to Ontario’s emissions are downwind of the Golden Horseshoe Area
• For PM, when levels exceed CWS level of 30 µg/m3 Ontario contribution is highest in the GTA at 49 percent
• BUT: 92% health impacts occur during non-smog episodes
• No known thresholds for O3 and PM2.5
444.8 Mil2.7 Mil2.1 MilMI
3621,87513,9257,950ERV
3518,48011,9396,541HA
444,8812,7512,130PD
O%
TotTON
PM: Premature Deaths; HA: Hospital Admissions; ERV: Emergency Room Visits; MI: Minor Illnesses
ON: Ontario; T: Transboundary; Tot: Total; O%: Ontario Proportion
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Ontario’s Smog Emissions Profile (2000)Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)
Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5)
Vehicles – 33%
Off-Road Engines – 22%Other Transportation – 8%
Electricity – 16%
Other Industrial Point Sources – 11%Electricity – 28%
Non-Iron Smelters - 42%
Other Industrial Point Sources – 18%
Vehicles – 10% Off-Road Engines – 7%
Residential (Area Sources) – 25%Other Area Sources – 19%
Other Industrial Point Sources – 19%
Other Industrial Point Sources – 14% Vehicles – 19%
Residential(Area Sources) – 12%Surface
Coatings – 10%
General Solvent Use – 24%
Off-Road Engines – 8%Other Area
Sources – 8%
Misc. – 12%Misc. – 10%
Misc. – 5% Misc. – 2%
Other Primary Metals – 6%
Non-Iron Smelters – 5%
Electricity – 7%
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Concentration Levels of PM2.5
Source: Toronto Public Health
Best time for outdoor exercise during smog episodes is between 6:00 –7:00 AM
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Source: Health Canada
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IPCC 2001 Canada: +1.1C
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2XCO22XCO2
3XCO23XCO2
4XCO24XCO2
IPCC 2001
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Kyoto and the Inevitability of Climate Change
“The overwhelming majority of scientific experts, whilst recognizing that scientific uncertainties exist, nonetheless believe that human-induced climate change is inevitable. . The question is not whether climate will change... but rather how much... how fast, and where”Robert Watson, Chair of IPCC to CoP6 Delegates, The Hague, November 2000
Stabilization: 40 Kyotos Needed
Based in IMAGE 2 model output
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100300
400
500
600
700
800
Kyoto
Year
Con
cent
ratio
n (p
pmv)
1IS92a
BAU1
2xCO2
Adaptation is necessaryMore mitigation is needed
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Canada’s Kyoto Challenge
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Average Temperature, with the Canadian model [scenario IS92a (2xCO2 in 2060)] (Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada)
Long Term Temperature ChangesLong Term Temperature Changes
0
500
3000 km
2010-2030 with respect to 1975-1995
2040-2060 with respect to 1975-1995
2080-2100 with respect to 1975-1995
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Victoria
Calgary
Winnipeg
London
Toronto
Quebec
Fredericton 2080-21002041-20692020-20401961-1990
Number of hot days above 30°C
Heat waves in Canadian cities will become more frequent
Air pollution mortality will increase by 20% and 25% by 2050 and 2080Number of heat-related deaths will double and triple
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Urgency of Situation:Opportunity for Integration
Co-benefits; multi-pollutant approach; integrated air issues