Climate Change and Agriculture and the ‘Perfect Storm ... C Rosenzweig.pdfClimate Change and...
Transcript of Climate Change and Agriculture and the ‘Perfect Storm ... C Rosenzweig.pdfClimate Change and...
Climate Change and Agricultureand the ‘Perfect Storm’
Connections to the World Food Crisis
Cynthia Rosenzweig NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and
Columbia Earth Institute
Climate Information for Managing RisksUniversity of Florida IFAS
Southeast Climate ConsortiumJune, 2008
1973-2002 Annual temperature trends
Outline
• Contributing factors to crisis
• Indirect and direct links with climate and climate change
• Warming and extreme events trends and observed effects on agriculture
• Key inflection points in future predictions
• ‘Virtual’ Crop Modeling Project
What is the World Food Crisis? Since 2003, world maize and wheat
prices have nearly doubled.
The price of rice has jumped to unprecedented
levels.
Dairy products, meat, poultry, palm
oil, and cassava, among other agricultural
commodities, have also experienced
price hikes.
Food riots in Egypt and Haiti; 37
countries in critical need of food
von Braun, IFPRI 2008
Food prices closely related to energy prices
Increasing Demand due to Population Growthand Rising Incomes
Subsidies and Trade Restrictions
Non-Climate FactorsMany parts of the developing world continue to face high population growth, and an
increasing number of countries have experienced high economic
growth in recent years.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) in China increased by more than 9% a year between 2005 and
2007. With higher incomes, consumer demand has increased.
Subsidies in developed countries have discouraged investment in
agriculture in developing countries.
Many countries are trying to minimize effects of higher prices on their populations. China has
banned exports of rice and pulses. Argentina has raised
export taxes on soybeans, maize, wheat, and beef.
Von Braun, IFPRI 2008
China Population
www.iiasa.ac.at/.../data/anim/pop_ani.htm
www.keetsa.com
Almost all of the increase in global maize production from 2004 to 2007 went to bio-fuels production (World Bank 2008)
In the United States, as much as one third of the maize crop goes to ethanol production, up from 5 percent a decade ago, and biofuel subsidies range between US$11-13 billion a year.
Increased biofuel demand in 2000-2007 is estimated to have contributed to ~30 percent of the weighted average increase of cereal prices.
Unintended Consequence of Climate Change Mitigation
Indirect Climate Change Effect – Biofuels
Direct Climate Effects
Current: Output has declined in Australia due to a severe drought decoupled from the ENSO cycle.
Is this climate change?New York Times
April 17, 2008SE Australia
Future: Climate change will further threat agricultural production through rising
temperature and more extreme events (Parry et al., 2004)
Change in crop yields with direct CO2 effects
1973-2002 Annual temperature trends
Rising Temperature in Many Agriculture Regions May Also Play a Role
<-1.2C to >1.2CIPCC WGII Chapter 1, 2007
1973-2002 Annual temperature trends
Observed Climate Change 1973-2002 and Documented Changes in Agriculture and Forestry
Phenology
Management practices, pests and diseases
Yields
Livestock
<-1.2C to >1.2CIPCC WGII Chapter 1, 2007
Peng et al. (2004) report that annual mean max. and min. temperatures have increased by 0.35o C and 1.13o C for the period 1979-2003
This is a close linkage between rice grain yield and mean min temperature during the dry cropping season (Jan to April).
Grain yield declined by 10% for each 1o C increase in growing-season min temp in the dry season. The effect of maximum temp on crop yield was insignificant.
Rice and the Philippines
Crop Yield
Over the last 50 years:• Very likely
– less frequent cold days, cold nights, and frosts– more frequent hot days and hot nights
• Likely – more frequent heat waves– more frequent heavy precipitation events– increased incidence of extreme high sea level– increased drought in some regions
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Observed Changes in Extremes
Extreme Events
>99%
90-99%
90-99%
66-90%
66-90%
66-90%
Extreme Events
Risk Management ApproachCoping Ranges and Thresholds
Ayers et al. 2005
Current
Seasonal climate forecasts, improved water management, Integrated Pest Management and warning systems, crop and livestock insurance programs . . .
“Worries Mount as Farmers Push for Big Harvest”
“Wet and Dry Extremes” Lead Story NYT, June 10, 2008
Risk of Current Climate Extremes is an Pathway to Climate Change
Characterization of Long-term Risk is also Important for World Food System and
Global Agreements
Focus on Extreme events
Regional StakeholdersShort-term Decisions
Adaptation
Focus on Mean and extreme changes
National PolicymakersLong-term Decisions
Adaptation & Mitigation
Seasonal-to-interannuale.g., ENSO
Decadal-to-century
Real Cereal Prices (% baseline) vs Temperature
(interpolated from point estimates)
Prices fall or hold steady until+1-3°C
IPCC, 2007
Predicted
Real Cereal Prices (% baseline) vs Temperature
(interpolated from point estimates)
Prices fall or hold steady until+1-3°C
IPCC, 2007
Predicted Observed
80
90
100
110
120
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
WORLD
Effects are Negative in Long Term Percent Change in Food Production Potential
PRODUCTION potential with low crop response to CO2PRODUCTION potential with high crop response to CO2AREA EXTENT with low crop response to CO2AREA EXTENT with high crop response to CO2
0-10 = Severity of climate change (~time)
80
90
100
110
120
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
WORLD
Effects are Negative in Long Term Percent Change in Food Production Potential
PRODUCTION potential with low crop response to CO2PRODUCTION potential with high crop response to CO2AREA EXTENT with low crop response to CO2AREA EXTENT with high crop response to CO2
0-10 = Severity of climate change (~time)
Level of CO2
Response?
80
90
100
110
120
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
WORLD
Effects are Negative in Long Term Percent Change in Food Production Potential
PRODUCTION potential with low crop response to CO2PRODUCTION potential with high crop response to CO2AREA EXTENT with low crop response to CO2AREA EXTENT with high crop response to CO2
0-10 = Severity of climate change (~time)
Inflection Points?
Virtual Crop Modeling Project for IPCC AR5*
*Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report
Goal: Improve characterization of long-term climate risk for agriculture at both regional and global scales by an order of magnitude for use by policymakers and integrated assessment modelers.
• Multiple crop and world food trade models
• Multiple climate scenarios – 18 PCMDI GCMs
• Multiple emissions scenarios – SRES; new scenario process underway
• Multiple assumptions about prices
• Improved CO2 formulations
• Links with water resources
• More complete adaptation
VCM Process
• Model-based probabilities of regional yield effects
• Improved characterization of key global production inflection points
• More complete crop and geographical coverage
• Potentials and limits of adaptation strategies
• Crop model intercomparison and development
VCM Products and Outcomes
• Steering group from crop modeling groups around the world
• New web-based ‘Green Book’ providing scenarios, protocols, and reporting formats
• Clearing house to gather and present results
Climate - World Food Crisis Connections
• The world food crisis may be the harbinger of how climate change effects will be realized in agriculture, i.e., as one of multiple stresses (aka ‘the perfect storm’) that come together to cause significant widespread problems.
• Rapid adoption of mitigation programs may bring unintended consequences. We must do better!
• Stationarity is dead. Warming trends and trends in extremes are the new ‘normal.’
• Increasing production this year is critical: helping ag sector/farmers to use climate information more effectivelyis an urgent challenge right now.
• We still need to improve projections of long-term risks.