Climate change, agriculture and food security: proven approaches and new investments, Policy Briefing 29, Brussels, 27 September 2012

Smallholder agriculture under climate change: challenges and outlook

Sonja Vermeulen, Head of ResearchCGIAR Research Program on Climate Change,

Agriculture and Food Security

Impacts

4 degrees by 2100 is likely

To 2090, taking 14 climate models

Four degree rise

Thornton et al. 2010

>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain

Length of growing period (%)

Impacts 1: Long-term trends in temperature and

rainfall

Good news: longer growing se

asons in parts

of Kenya and Tanzania

Bad news: shorte

r growing seasons a

lmost everywhere else

Impacts 2: Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events

Pulwaty 2010

Good news: hurric

anes likely to decrease in fre

quency

Bad news: hurric

anes more intense, category 4 & 5 hurric

anes twice as fr

equent

2050 compared with 2005 in A1B scenario

Cheung et al 2010

Impacts 3: Major transitions in ecosystems

and livelihoods

Good news: increased catches in

high latitudes o

f Pacific

Bad news: huge loss o

f species, c

oral bleaching, widely reduced catches

By 2050, severe childhood stunting up by 23% in central Africa and 62% in South Asia

(uses IFPRI IMPACT model + socio-economic models)

Lloyd et al. 2011 Environmental Health Perspectives

Impacts 4: Poorest at risk

Becoming “climate smart”

Food security

Adaptation

Ecological footprint

“Climate-smart agriculture” means building resilience, balancing trade-offs, suiting the context

US Malawi0

5

10

15

20

25

GHG CO2-eq tonne per capita

Adaptation

Adaptive capacity

Technology

Knowledge & skillsGovernance

& institutions

Income & assets

Access to

information

Infrastructure

Social capital

Key adaptation strategiesIncremental adaptation to

progressive climate change• Closing yield gaps (i.e. sustainable

intensification)• Raising the bar – technologies & policies for

2030sClimate risk management• Technologies (e.g. flood control)• Institutions (e.g. index-based insurance)• Climate information systems (e.g. seasonal

forecasts)Transformative adaptation• Changing production systems• Changing livelihood portfolios

• Example: Climate analogue tool

• Identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality

• These sites are used for cross-site farmer visits, & participatory crop & livestock trials

Adapting to long-term climate trends

Example: Climate services• Met services produce

forecast information downscaled in space & time

• Farmers & met services work together to ensure forecasts meet local needs

Adapting to greater climate

variability

• Relocation of growing areas & processing facilities

• Agricultural diversification, or shifts• Livelihood diversification, or shifts• Migration

To transformational adaptation?

Summary points

Climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture:

• Are more complex than often assumed – and happening faster than often assumed

• Are unevenly distributed geographically• Depend on household and national capacities

and contexts as well as on exposure to climate threats

• Pose major threats to nutrition, welfare, incomes and health among poorer households

Responding with climate-smart agriculture:

• Is foremost about development – addressing smallholder concerns, building assets & resilience

• Adds new actions on climate to sustainable development

• Deals with trade-offs, not only “win-win-wins”• Must be “landscape-smart” too• Will not solve future food security on its own

(need actions on distribution, diets, waste)

www.ccafs.cgiar.orgsign up for news on agriculture &

climate change follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate