Climate Change Adaptation within the Purview of National Security and Sustainable Development

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

FRANCISCO ASHLEY ACEDILLOFRANCISCO ASHLEY ACEDILLOSenior Consultant, NSCSenior Consultant, NSC

Consultant for Pol. Affairs, OSTConsultant for Pol. Affairs, OST

In the Purview of National Security

SCOPESCOPE

Preliminaries

International Consensus on Climate Change

Why Climate Change is a MAJOR NATIONAL

SECURITY ISSUE

Policy Environment for CCA & SD in the PHL

Opportunities for Local Action via NSTP/NRSC

Where I’m coming from…Where I’m coming from…

I AM NOT A CLIMATOLOGIST.

Nor AM I A SCIENTIST.


As an Air Force officer, and pilot, for 9 yearsWE DID HAVE EXTENSIVE EXPOSURE TO

METEOROLOGY.

As a Management Consultant since 2008,My FOCUS has been on STRATEGY

MANAGEMENT.


And since 2010, I have beenSENIOR CONSULTANT to the National Security

Adviser / NSC.

From 2010 to 2011, I was involved indrafting the country’s first-ever NATIONAL

SECURITY POLICY (NSP) since 1999.

INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUSINTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS

• The scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth's climate system is unequivocally warming, and it is more than 90% certain that humans are causing most of it through activities that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels.- Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)


• The IPCC first came out with its ASSESSMENT REPORT in January 2001 (through the Working Group I), and their conclusions were:

1. The global average surface temperature has risen 0.6 ± 0.2 °C since the late 19th century, and 0.17 °C per decade in the last 30 years.

Global Temperature Anomaly Global Temperature Anomaly 1880-20101880-2010

INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUSINTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS• The IPCC first came out with its ASSESSMENT REPORT in

January 2001 (through the Working Group I), and their conclusions were:

1. The global average surface temperature has risen 0.6 ± 0.2 °C since the late 19th century, and 0.17 °C per decade in the last 30 years.

2. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities, in particular emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane.


• The IPCC first came out with its ASSESSMENT REPORT in January 2001 (through the Working Group I), and their conclusions were:

3. If greenhouse gas emissions continue the warming will also continue, with temperatures projected to increase by 1.4 °C to 5.8 °C between 1990 and 2100. Accompanying this temperature increase will be increases in some types of extreme weather and a projected sea level rise.


No scientific body of national or international standing has pushed forward any formal opinion dissenting from any of these three main points.

World Economic Forum World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2013Global Risks Report 2013

• The World Economic Forum is an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas.

• Global Risks 2013 report is based on an extensive survey of over 1,000 experts worldwide. The report – now in its eighth edition (since 2006) – serves to orient and inform decision-makers as they seek to make sense of an increasingly complex and fast-changing world.

WEF’s Global Risks Map 2013 WEF’s Global Risks Map 2013

2011 Economic Losses Related to Selected 2011 Economic Losses Related to Selected Natural Catastrophes Natural Catastrophes


• Economic and environmental systems are simultaneously under stress worldwide, and this is testing resilience at the global and national levels.

• Meanwhile, the impact of climate change is more evident as temperature rises and more frequent extreme weather events loom on the horizon.


• The 2013 report identified the failure of climate change adaptation and rising greenhouse gas emissions as among those global risks considered to be the most likely to materialize within a decade. Compared to last year’s survey, the failure to adapt to climate change replaced rising greenhouse gas emissions as the most systemically critical.

• This change in the data mirrors a wider shift in the conversation on the environment from the question of whether our climate is changing to the questions of “by how much” and “how quickly”.

U.S. NIC’s Critical Uncertainties by 2025U.S. NIC’s Critical Uncertainties by 2025

“…A lack of national leadership in tackling climate change further damages America’s international standing as it fails to lead by example. The charge that the current US policy is short-sighted and disconnected from the scientific evidence means that America is sowing the seeds for more environmental and economic damage in the future.”


“..But in a world living on borrowed time, there is no sense of urgency associated with the problem of climatechange, except for those most likely to feel its effects.”

- Global Scenarios to 2025, U.S. National Intelligence Council


NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE & NATIONAL SECURITY& NATIONAL SECURITY

• The United Nations (UN) Report of the Secretary General’s High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change 2004, “A More Secured World: Our Shared Responsibility,” defined six clusters of threats with which the world must be concerned with for the 21st century, foremost among them:

Economic and social threats, including poverty, infectious disease and environmental degradation.


The United Nations (UN) Report of the Secretary General’s High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change 2004, “A More Secured World: Our Shared Responsibility” - 5 of 6 other clusters of threats:

Inter-State conflictInternal conflict, including civil war, genocide and other large-scale atrocitiesNuclear, radiological, chemical and biological

weaponsTerrorismTransnational organized crime


In defining Economic and Social Threats, including poverty, infectious disease and environmental degradation, the UN said that:

“Environmental degradation has enhanced the destructive potential of natural disasters and in some cases hastened their occurrence. The dramatic increase in major disasters witnessed in the last 50 years provides worrying evidence of this trend… “


In defining Economic and Social Threats, including poverty, infectious disease and environmental degradation, the UN said that:

“.. More than two billion people were affected by such disasters in the last decade, and in the same period the economic toll surpassed that of the previous four decades combined. If climate change produces more acute flooding, heat waves, droughts and storms, this pace may accelerate.”

Poverty, infectious disease, environmental degradation and war feed one another in a deadly cycle.

Disease and poverty, in turn, are connected to environmental degradation; climate change exacerbates the occurrence of such infectious disease as malaria and dengue fever.

Environmental stress, caused by large populations and shortages of land and other natural resources, can contribute to civil violence.



Poverty ( as measured by per capita gross domestic product (GDP)) is strongly associated with the outbreak of civil war

The NSP 2011-2016The NSP 2011-2016

• It is an open-source document, available for download from our Official Gazette at: http://www.gov.ph/2011/08/18/national-security-policy-2011-2016/

• In it, the NSP posits that: “Climate change is expected to hit developing countries the hardest. Its effects – higher temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, more frequent weather-related disasters, pose risks to agriculture, food and water supplies…”

• (cont’d): “.. At stake are the Philippines’ recent gains in the fight against poverty, hunger and disease, and in protecting the lives and livelihood of our people.”


CCA & SD in the PhilippinesCCA & SD in the Philippines

• After the first meeting of the UN Conference on Sustainable Development (UNCSD) in 1992 (Rio 1992), the PHL gov’t. established the PCSD under NEDA.

• FVR’s “Philippines 2000” strategic plan was heavily influenced by Rio 21.

• Succeeding versions of the MTPDP (now PDP) have incorporated SD as a concept and basis for action plans


• In 2009, PHL passed RA 9729 or the Climate Change Act, leading to creation of Climate Change Commission and adoption of National Framework Strategy on Climate Change.

• In 2012, RA 10174 was passed, amending RA 9729 and setting up a Php 1 billion People’s Survival Fund (PSF) annually to implement local climate change action plans and make communities more resilient to climate-induced disasters.


• Relatedly, PHL also passed RA 10121 or the “Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010,” abolishing the NDCC and reconstituting it into a NDRRMC.

• This law also recognized the critical effects of climate change on disasters and calamities in the country, and called for a “Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction Management” (CBDRRM) system

Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?Where does NSTP/NRSC come in?

The PCSD’s Agenda 21 recognizes the The PCSD’s Agenda 21 recognizes the importance of raising our citizens’ civic-importance of raising our citizens’ civic-

mindedness – their ability for good mindedness – their ability for good citizenship – in promoting SUSTAINABLE citizenship – in promoting SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT.DEVELOPMENT.

Women

Farmers

Scientific and Technological Community

Business and Industry

Workers and Trade Unions

Local Authorities

Non-Governmental Organizations

Indigenous People

Children and Youth

Major Groups

From Agenda 21 (Rio 1992)


The PCSD’s PA (Phil. Agenda) 21:GOAL:Making sustainable development a way of life for civil society STRATEGY:Integrating SD principles into people’s values and lifestylesSTRATEGY OWNER:PCSD-Civil Society counterpart


The PCSD’s PA (Phil. Agenda) 21 call for:

1.Pushing for the integration of SD principles and parameters into the education curricula at all levels

• Move towards the Integration of SD modules into the business and allied curricula in all schools, colleges and universities



2. Harnessing the power of media, academe, and church-based organizations by establishing partnerships and coalitions in implementing SD programs and projects

3. Coordinating the development of a living sustainable community model



4. Linking up with academe and other major groups on reviewing all relevant laws for consistency with SD

5. Defining a transparent operational framework and plan for wider civil society engagement in SD efforts, such as the youth and other major groups


Study, review and give inputs to:

1) The Climate Change Commission’s National Strategy Framework for Climate Change

2) The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan

3) The ACTION PLANS on Climate Change of DILG, DENR, Dept. of Agriculture

4) Or even the National Security Policy, and others


Agencies for potential tie ups:

a. DENR (for watersheds, mangrove areas, mining area communities)b. Climate Change Commissionc. Office of Civil Defense, DNDd. Municipal/City, Provincial and Regional DRMMC's


Focus areas for action:

1. Watersheds2. Mangroves3. Coastal living communities4. Urban living communities along river banks, canals and esteros


Focus areas for action:

5. Communities living within mining areas 6. Typhoon-proofing of houses and school buildings7. Organizing school clubs that promote climate change awareness, sustainable development and disaster and risk mitigation and preparedness

As NSTP trainors/implementers, or as West Point As NSTP trainors/implementers, or as West Point leadership professor Col. Eric Kial would say: leadership professor Col. Eric Kial would say:

“…As leaders, you have a choice: You can make “…As leaders, you have a choice: You can make assumptions about the next generation or you assumptions about the next generation or you

can invest in them the way that others have can invest in them the way that others have invested in you.”invested in you.”

As NSTP trainors/implementers, or as West Point As NSTP trainors/implementers, or as West Point leadership professor Col. Eric Kial would say: leadership professor Col. Eric Kial would say:

““To truly guide and develop the younger To truly guide and develop the younger generation, we need to practice generation, we need to practice

transformational and authentic leadership.”transformational and authentic leadership.”

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

FRANCISCO ASHLEY ACEDILLOFRANCISCO ASHLEY ACEDILLOSenior Consultant, NSCSenior Consultant, NSC

Consultant for Pol. Affairs, OSTConsultant for Pol. Affairs, OST

In the Purview of National Security

THANK YOU!

Climate Change Adaptation within the Purview of National Security and Sustainable Development

Technology

Transcript of Climate Change Adaptation within the Purview of National Security and Sustainable Development